Tesla : BEAR in my opinion, what is the bullish case?
- Thread starter Chris Mac
- Start date
I think the gigafactory will be a huge bust. There won't be enough demand for its capacity by 2020.
Anyhow we had earnings, so let's check it out:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102417155?__...dline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=102417155#.
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Tesla reported fourth-quarter quarterly earnings and revenue that majorly missed analysts' expectations on Wednesday, but it struck an optimistic tone for the year ahead.
The company posted an adjusted loss of 13 cents per share, compared to 33 cents per share in the year-earlier period. Adjusted revenue for the quarter came in at $1.1 billion, against the comparable year-ago figure $761 million a year ago.
Analysts had expected Tesla to report earnings of about 31 cents per share on roughly $1.23 billion in revenue, according to a consensus estimate from Thomson Reuters.
In a letter to shareholders, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and its CFO Deepak Ahuja wrote that the company had a "herculean effort" in building 11,627 vehicles—hitting its production target of 35,000 Model S cars in 2014.
Tesla was estimated to deliver 11,142 vehicles, according to StreetAccount, but only ultimately delivered 9,834. Musk and Ahuja said the company was unable to deliver about 1,400 cars because of "a combination of customers being on vacation, severe winter weather and shipping problems (with actual ships)" following a briefly delayed release."
Customers on vacation. I buy that. That tells a lot about Tesla' volume right there....
Oh yeah, the stock is down 2% aftermarket....
Anyhow we had earnings, so let's check it out:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102417155?__...dline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=102417155#.
"
Tesla reported fourth-quarter quarterly earnings and revenue that majorly missed analysts' expectations on Wednesday, but it struck an optimistic tone for the year ahead.
The company posted an adjusted loss of 13 cents per share, compared to 33 cents per share in the year-earlier period. Adjusted revenue for the quarter came in at $1.1 billion, against the comparable year-ago figure $761 million a year ago.
Analysts had expected Tesla to report earnings of about 31 cents per share on roughly $1.23 billion in revenue, according to a consensus estimate from Thomson Reuters.
In a letter to shareholders, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and its CFO Deepak Ahuja wrote that the company had a "herculean effort" in building 11,627 vehicles—hitting its production target of 35,000 Model S cars in 2014.
Tesla was estimated to deliver 11,142 vehicles, according to StreetAccount, but only ultimately delivered 9,834. Musk and Ahuja said the company was unable to deliver about 1,400 cars because of "a combination of customers being on vacation, severe winter weather and shipping problems (with actual ships)" following a briefly delayed release."
Customers on vacation. I buy that. That tells a lot about Tesla' volume right there....
Oh yeah, the stock is down 2% aftermarket....
Let me be clear, I live in Europe and I can't short US stocks.
So I will not short Tesla.
But I follow Tesla, as other Nasdaq names, because I need a bottom-up view to combine with my top-down approach in order to do properly my job.
What would I do if I had the opportunity to make it?
Well I ll rather buy Tesla puts.
Here is the trade, take it if you will.
Bet between 20 and 50 bps (0.20% to 0.50%) of your capital.
Buy put march15 strike 200 near USD8.5, perhaps 8 if you got the opportunity.
Each put costs USD850 (x100)
Target : 25 minimum
Stop : below 5 (40% to 50% loss, depends if you are fast)
This trade shows a return/risk of 5 (2.5/0.5), which is excellent.
Chris Mac
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Well, I prepared my answer yesterday and didn't know Tesla would gap down.
Price fluctuated from 8.4 to 10 at that time !
It would be interesting to see if target would be reach @25
Anyway, there will be other opportunities...
That s the game
Cheers
Chris Mac
Whitney Tilson shorted Tesla in the mid 30s, then covered at 200+.