I have a quarter of my account that AUD will be stronger by a good amount than the YEN in a few weeks
Tell Me Why This Simple Strategy Won't Work
- Thread starter jaygould
- Start date
I have a quarter of my account that AUD will be stronger by a good amount than the YEN in a few weeks
I can add some evidence that may support AUD/JPY long. As you can see from the data attached, the AUD (gold color) has been the weakest currency for some time now. We did see JPY (white color) recovery during this past week from recent downward pressure.
So, given that JPY is high and AUD is low, we could anticipate AUD strengthening and/or JPY weakening once more.... So a Long AUD/JPY could be a reasonable position from the perspective of this data, if only because we could anticipate AUD strengthening after being weak for so long.... But these are difficult predictions, as in any trading.
HyperScalper
Most people don't dare to call out a trade, much less actually do a trade. So I will save you some of the hassle and placed a trade for your call out:
Short EUR/AUD at 1.51094 stop 1.51394 (30 pips), take profit 50 pips.
To contrast your trade, I have placed a trade based on my moon rocket theory:
Long EUR/AUD at 1.51258 stop 500 pips, no take profit.
Both trades risk 1 GBP.
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The short trade was a loser. Lost 1.09 GBP. My guess is Murrey/Gann should sign up for a trading training course to learn to not go against the trend, especially a moon rocket trend.
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If you are looking for an "all in" trade with only a 30 pip Stop Loss, then you would be correct. So, according to that method of trading, then it's a loser.
But my personal approach is never to use only a single entry. So I would not be so eager to close
the trade and would most likely just add another Short for 2x initial LotSize
up near the 40 pip stop level, thus moving the Price Break Even level 20+ PIPs higher in
my favor, and then most likely I would add no further.
One of the "enemies" of really good trading are "stops" and another entry is to put all of your
eggs (Lot Size) on only a single price. So I normally use 2 or 3 separated entries to pull
the Volume Weighted Break Even in my favor and only after those entries are complete,
do I consider that I have finished the process of "entering" the trade fully. Just an idea...
If the Analytics make sense, then that would give the rationale and conviction to reinforce
the position. That's the way I would trade, since it wasn't just something picked by
flipping a coin; rather it was based on a scan of 28 Currency Pairs and chosen "rationally".
I'd be shooting for a higher commitment than 1 GBP and want to see something
like roughly $5 - $10 / PIP commitment level. Holding the trade for at least 24 hours
or until it runs to 50 pips profit, whichever comes first.
HyperScalper
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The 30 pip stop was your choice not mine - I specifically asked you because I knew ahead of time what will happen. So not only murry/gann would go against the trend they would average down too ? There's not much hope for these guys.
As I said, my trading methodology is never a single entry, and so when I casually mentioned 30 pips, it was not a full description of the method I use in trading. For me it would be roughly 30 pips from my Price Break Even level, once I have the full position in place. Also, I don't enter with Market Orders, but usually in this case of a Short trade, Offer 5-10 pips above the market for each entry. So anyway, that's just how I do things......
But, you win this one, since by that strict definition, the trade is a loser. I'm waiting 24-36 hours or so to see how it plays out. Also having only a single trade active is not the way I would trade either; rather, I would have positions in 3-4 other symbols as a "diversification" which would tend to cross-hedge each other, in a sense.
HyperScalper
Winning isn't that important, nor is losing the 1 GBP. The point I was illustrating was to give people a clue about stop sizes. Now are there still people wanting to do 3 pip stops or scalp for 3 pips ?
My own view is that "stops" should not be contemplated, except as a "safety net" measure. One should have sufficient analytic confidence, and the intention NOT to stop, as a fundamental part of your trading mentality, and your trading methodology. With correct trade management, "stops" are only rarely needed. I can prove that I can get better than 90% Win rates scalping for 3 PIPs. But I don't use "stops" in that trading, since 1) correct analytics, and 2) correct "incremental trading methods" make stops almost obsolete. But that's just my view, and I know it's not the "traditional" approach to trading.
By the way, nobody should contemplate "extreme" trading like that, unless they have the right combination of 1) analytics, 2) order entry support, 3) training and experience. I do it all the time, but that's because I am a "specialist scalper". For any trading, finding a "specialist niche" is the way to stabilize your income.
HyperScalper
I am trying to understand what you mean by incremental trading methods.