Ok we can let it rest but just want to make sure folks understand the Traders Equation. Here it is in Brooks own words from his trilogy book Trading Price Action Trading Ranges page 360
“To take a trade, you must believe that the trader's equation is favorable:
the probability of success times the reward has to be greater than the probability of failure times the risk.”
A way of guessing the probability: based upon the contexts...the market cycles....pressures in the present context....the volatility at the moment.......the patterns...and price action location within present market cycle the odds are greater of price hitting my reward before it hits my SL. That assignment number will be your probability of a successful trade. That can ...30% ..60%...70%..50%..etc. it is your best guess. What is left out of 100% is used to to plug into the risk portion of the equation.
You can know your PT (known) you can know your SL (known) you can only best guess the probability element of the equation based upon the context and price patterns within the context...bullish bearish pressures with the context (present market cycle) and the larger context (that is the market cycle even before the present market cycle and it’s strenght).
Plugging in the numbers to the equation renders a number.
Example:
Risk 4 points
Reward 4 points
Probability 60% of being successful
40%x4 =160
60%x4 = 240
240>160 TAKE THE TRADE.
Another example:
Risk 4 points
Reward 10 points
Probability 45% of successful trade
55% x 4 pts = 220
45% x 10 points = 450
450 is greater than 220. TAKE THE TRADE.
You stand a slightly higher chance of being stopped out but IF you aren’t not stopped out you stand to have a very good reward to risk ratio, if the trade works out.
Another example:
Risk 2 points
Reward 2 points
Probability of success 45% based upon contexts ....patterns..pressures...etc
55%x2 =110 (risk number)
45%x2 = 90 (reward number)
90 < 110 do not take the trade
No mathematical advantage.
Excellent explanation. Great thread by the way.
And poke fun at! It will keep that brain of yours nimble as you sip on coffee waiting for your stock to arise from the ash heap of history. Patience ole boy patience! Your boat will be coming in, or sinking, nobody knows which. LOL