Techniques for Day Trading the ES, NQ, YM, MES, MNQ, and MYM

Ok we can let it rest but just want to make sure folks understand the Traders Equation. Here it is in Brooks own words from his trilogy book Trading Price Action Trading Ranges page 360


“To take a trade, you must believe that the trader's equation is favorable:
the probability of success times the reward has to be greater than the probability of failure times the risk.”

A way of guessing the probability: based upon the contexts...the market cycles....pressures in the present context....the volatility at the moment.......the patterns...and price action location within present market cycle the odds are greater of price hitting my reward before it hits my SL. That assignment number will be your probability of a successful trade. That can ...30% ..60%...70%..50%..etc. it is your best guess. What is left out of 100% is used to to plug into the risk portion of the equation.

You can know your PT (known) you can know your SL (known) you can only best guess the probability element of the equation based upon the context and price patterns within the context...bullish bearish pressures with the context (present market cycle) and the larger context (that is the market cycle even before the present market cycle and it’s strenght).

Plugging in the numbers to the equation renders a number.

Example:

Risk 4 points
Reward 4 points
Probability 60% of being successful

40%x4 =160
60%x4 = 240
240>160 TAKE THE TRADE.

Another example:
Risk 4 points
Reward 10 points
Probability 45% of successful trade
55% x 4 pts = 220
45% x 10 points = 450
450 is greater than 220. TAKE THE TRADE.

You stand a slightly higher chance of being stopped out but IF you aren’t not stopped out you stand to have a very good reward to risk ratio, if the trade works out.

Another example:
Risk 2 points
Reward 2 points
Probability of success 45% based upon contexts ....patterns..pressures...etc
55%x2 =110 (risk number)
45%x2 = 90 (reward number)
90 < 110 do not take the trade

No mathematical advantage.

Excellent explanation. Great thread by the way.
 
I'm getting flashbacks of Jack Hershey and Spydertarder, Making JH' SCT and all his material alive.
Jack is dead and gone. RIP. I never understood his concepts when I looked at them. Although I have to admit I really didn’t study them.

At my age I don’t have too many more years myself. But look at it this way themickey at least you will have my posts to mull over! ROFL.:D And poke fun at! It will keep that brain of yours nimble as you sip on coffee waiting for your stock to arise from the ash heap of history. Patience ole boy patience! Your boat will be coming in, or sinking, nobody knows which. LOL
 
Jack is dead and gone. RIP. I never understood his concepts when I looked at them. Although I have to admit I really didn’t study them.

At my age I don’t have too many more years myself. But look at it this way themickey at least you will have my posts to mull over! ROFL.:D And poke fun at! It will keep that brain of yours nimble as you sip on coffee waiting for your stock to arise from the ash heap of history. Patience ole boy patience! Your boat will be coming in, or sinking, nobody knows which. LOL

You’ve lost nothing. I’ve read something by ‘jack hershey’. Although he represented himself like elderly man, his speech is very good known for everybody, who has or had children of teen age. Zero tolerance to criticism, absolute assurance in self rightness, graph mania, etc. And of course guruism, desire to attract the attention of beginning traders promising the power of indicator, that lead the PA. Classical set. So I doubt that he passed away, more probably he tired from ET and switched his ill-poisoned ego to another online community, not necessarily trading one.
 
KISS is what to aim for in trading, not complication.
When it takes multiple posts and pages to explain trading methods, then it's too complicated.
JH went down that rabbit hole.
There's actually an interesting thread going atm, 'Price action , support resistance does not work in ES',
where VSTScalper makes some interesting comments:
The following - is what I went thru - trading with the D.O.M. - at my favorite Starbucks. Now I know traders will feel sorry for me - for what I had to put up with - but I took it like a man.

I would travel to the San Diego area a lot - go to a Starbucks early in the morning - get a Venti Frappuccino - sit there and trade off the D.O.M. - with NO charts. The only problem I had - at the Starbucks I would always go too - it was near the Beach in the Encinitas area - and early in the morning - girls would stop at Starbucks - in Bikinis - and it did cause me to lose on some trades. One morning - I was trading - talking to a Client in the UK - I finally told him - I have to shut down now - I will get back to you soon - I need to go to a different Starbucks - a couple miles away - far from the beach - because I couldn't focus on trading - seriously - this really happened. Now I am NOT complaining - I did enjoy the early morning viewing at Starbucks.

I don't dare to go to that Starbucks now - at my age - I could have a Heart Attack.
And
My feelings about trading successfully.....
4) And MOST IMPORTANT - for me - my trading is based on my motto - "Discipline plus Simplicity equals Success". I can guarantee - without a Disciplined approach to trading - and Keeping Things Simple - I would have been out of the trading business years ago. So in a way - Trading is NOT just about Indicators - and Coding and what Equities or Futures Instruments we trade - to me - that is a small part of becoming a Successful Trader.
 
You’ve lost nothing. I’ve read something by ‘jack hershey’. Although he represented himself like elderly man, his speech is very good known for everybody, who has or had children of teen age. Zero tolerance to criticism, absolute assurance in self rightness, graph mania, etc. And of course guruism, desire to attract the attention of beginning traders promising the power of indicator, that lead the PA. Classical set. So I doubt that he passed away, more probably he tired from ET and switched his ill-poisoned ego to another online community, not necessarily trading one.

ET member Jack Hershey died November 3, 2014. He was 81. Fwiw, IRL, his first name was John.

I am a practitioner of Hershey methodologies every trading day. Thank you Jack! RIP.
 
ET member Jack Hershey died November 3, 2014. He was 81. Fwiw, IRL, his first name was John.

I am a practitioner of Hershey methodologies every trading day. Thank you Jack! RIP.

with all respect, Sir, have you visited the funeral? have you seen by your eyes or just read message on board? BTW, such kind of discussion is clear offtopic in this awesome thread, so you can answer via PM if you want...
 
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YOU are the one that brought up YOUR bullshit about Jack, his work, and his death.

YOU are now challenging the very simple fact of his death?

I have no interest in PM'ing you. You have made YOUR failure with JH methods and YOUR dislike with JH known in other threads. I suggest you get over it.
 
Everyone, no matter whom, makes a contribution to life in one way or another.
But taking an example of trading, bar by bar analysis imo is time consuming, detailed, over complicated.
But simple for some is not easy.
Not saying you guys are noobs, but it's a very common mistake to think more complicated means better results.
You see it in the charts some display, hundreds of lines. "Bollocks" to that. :)
When all you want to do is go from A to B, why design a complicated bycycle?
download-2.jpeg
 
My suggestion, learn to trade from data, not charts.
I own zero charting software (no longer look at Amibroker which I once owned).
I use zero indicators, never ever plot a line on a single chart.
I glance at charts briefly to confirm my data, that's all.
My trading displays are data only, numbers and letters, far quicker, easier, greater depth.
 
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