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Technical Strategy
- Thread starter Tums
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The Day
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2273669>
In retrospect, two of the mistakes were preventable, and another was very amenable to prompt correction.
Out of order...
The reversal short on bar 50. I eliminated the possibility of a forming lateral with the IBGS on bar 48. The IBGS immediately afterwards should have renewed that possibility, with the result that the sequence wasn't completed until bar 55, which also signalled change.
The reversal short on bar 63. I think I recall Spyder saying that an RTL break can't constitute the dominant half of a gaussian shift. This isn't something I've looked into (though I now will), but would mean that bar 61 completed the R2R, 66 completed the short sequence and 69 signalled change.
Bar 41. Jury's still out on this one. The series of bars would be consistent with a lateral channel, but this isn't something I've ever annotated before. I've tried to make sure that all my charts consist of overlapping trends. Although I'm still not certain why it's not a genuine SOC, bar 43 gave a very compelling reason to correct and go long. In my log, I'd actually marked it as a flat bottom pennant. I didn't complete any of my rows until I felt confident that the bar had "locked in", so I must have logged that FBP quite late in the bar. Even though it ends higher on ND volume, there was a significant intrabar trend reversal, which would have occured quite late in the bar. A convincing sign of a failed new dominant if ever there was one.
Also, a recurring theme. Timing. Reversing at the worst part of the bar, meaning the bar's range is working against both sides of the reversal. Which really adds up...
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2273669>
In retrospect, two of the mistakes were preventable, and another was very amenable to prompt correction.
Out of order...
The reversal short on bar 50. I eliminated the possibility of a forming lateral with the IBGS on bar 48. The IBGS immediately afterwards should have renewed that possibility, with the result that the sequence wasn't completed until bar 55, which also signalled change.
The reversal short on bar 63. I think I recall Spyder saying that an RTL break can't constitute the dominant half of a gaussian shift. This isn't something I've looked into (though I now will), but would mean that bar 61 completed the R2R, 66 completed the short sequence and 69 signalled change.
Bar 41. Jury's still out on this one. The series of bars would be consistent with a lateral channel, but this isn't something I've ever annotated before. I've tried to make sure that all my charts consist of overlapping trends. Although I'm still not certain why it's not a genuine SOC, bar 43 gave a very compelling reason to correct and go long. In my log, I'd actually marked it as a flat bottom pennant. I didn't complete any of my rows until I felt confident that the bar had "locked in", so I must have logged that FBP quite late in the bar. Even though it ends higher on ND volume, there was a significant intrabar trend reversal, which would have occured quite late in the bar. A convincing sign of a failed new dominant if ever there was one.
Also, a recurring theme. Timing. Reversing at the worst part of the bar, meaning the bar's range is working against both sides of the reversal. Which really adds up...
Attachments
Here's a full vocabulary list.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2273684>
Formations are distinguished by self-explanatory symbols. A few more letters for the INT column (all in horizontal orientation):
T - breakout from the top
B - breakout from the bottom
F preceding either letter denotes a FBO.
With pennants, 1 corresponds to a breakout of the tape, 2 corresponds to a breakout of the formation's shadow.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2273684>
Formations are distinguished by self-explanatory symbols. A few more letters for the INT column (all in horizontal orientation):
T - breakout from the top
B - breakout from the bottom
F preceding either letter denotes a FBO.
With pennants, 1 corresponds to a breakout of the tape, 2 corresponds to a breakout of the formation's shadow.
Attachments
Not sure how exactly, but I think I might need to refine the vocabulary to reflect intrabar happenings. An increased sensitivity to these would definitely help with timing. And perhaps omitting some of the more boring bars (the point 2 to 3 movements) to leave room for potential multiple entries for FTT bars. Food for thought.
Thanks for the comments, Ehorn.
I agree completely and think your chart is more coherent and accurate.
The point 2 within the previous traverse was a careless mistake. A couple of the recent days dampened my faith in having a complete inter-day continuity and I mistakenly disregarded a few things today.
One thing I've yet to reconcile is how to handle P2s of those faster traverses that develop into slower ones, and how to apply gaussians to those specific cases.
The taping TO OBs. Thanks for mentioning that, it's one of the seven cases I often forget to draw, mostly because I can't do it with Pepe's trusty Channels Tool.
You're spot on about that bar 1 PA. And I've also realized I need to stop seeing a PA in every VE...
I agree completely and think your chart is more coherent and accurate.
The point 2 within the previous traverse was a careless mistake. A couple of the recent days dampened my faith in having a complete inter-day continuity and I mistakenly disregarded a few things today.
One thing I've yet to reconcile is how to handle P2s of those faster traverses that develop into slower ones, and how to apply gaussians to those specific cases.
The taping TO OBs. Thanks for mentioning that, it's one of the seven cases I often forget to draw, mostly because I can't do it with Pepe's trusty Channels Tool.
You're spot on about that bar 1 PA. And I've also realized I need to stop seeing a PA in every VE...