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Technical Strategy
- Thread starter Tums
- Start date
Here is a very pertinent Spyder post on traverse trading at Advanced Beginner:
11-06-08 06:52 PM
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Quote from romanus:
Would you be so kind to point me in the right direction so I can find a flaw in my annotations or my attempt on analysis.
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9:50 through 13:50 represents one, very long, dominant Traverse down. Some may have chosen to 'fan' the Traverse on the way down.
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Quote from romanus:
It seems to me that the 13:20 bar does not represent change because the market has not arrived at pt 2 yet. However based on the slope of the dotted lines 1320 can not be pt2 because the low of the bar does not extend lower than the dashed line drawn through the low of 12:35 in parallel to the dotted lines. So, 13:20 and how it's low sits in relationship to the dashed line - just doesn't make sense for it to be pt2.
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13:20 does represent a Point Two. Perhaps, another method of annotation exists - one which allows for a single down channel.
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Quote from romanus:
13:45 seems to be Pace Acceleration and not Peak Volume. And it does not represent change because the sequences are not completed yet. 13:45 also makes sense as pt2 in orange down traverse.
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Delete the Orange Traverse. Seeing it on your charts has clouded your view of the market. 13:45 completes the sequences required of a down traverse.
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Quote from romanus:
I got a feeling that I am attempting to apply an incorrect logic here because I am running into the paradox where only one of the two bars (13:20 or 13:45) can be dominant.
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No. You aren't applying incorrect logic here. You've simply missed a few key signals from the market. Nothing more. First, Both 13:20 and 13:45 represent dominant bars. Now, If both 13:20 and 13:45 represent dominant bars, what is the only way 13:25 can't represent change?
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Quote from romanus:
I have arrived at the point where the majority of days (even if I get confused during RTH) I am able to arrive at correct annotations and analysis based on EOD debrief.
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Begin with knowing that 9:50 through 13:50 represents a dominant down traverse. Start by looking for areas where you may have annotated in a dominant fashion, but the market has indicated the area represents non-dominance.
HTH.
- Spydertrader
11-06-08 06:52 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from romanus:
Would you be so kind to point me in the right direction so I can find a flaw in my annotations or my attempt on analysis.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9:50 through 13:50 represents one, very long, dominant Traverse down. Some may have chosen to 'fan' the Traverse on the way down.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from romanus:
It seems to me that the 13:20 bar does not represent change because the market has not arrived at pt 2 yet. However based on the slope of the dotted lines 1320 can not be pt2 because the low of the bar does not extend lower than the dashed line drawn through the low of 12:35 in parallel to the dotted lines. So, 13:20 and how it's low sits in relationship to the dashed line - just doesn't make sense for it to be pt2.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13:20 does represent a Point Two. Perhaps, another method of annotation exists - one which allows for a single down channel.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from romanus:
13:45 seems to be Pace Acceleration and not Peak Volume. And it does not represent change because the sequences are not completed yet. 13:45 also makes sense as pt2 in orange down traverse.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Delete the Orange Traverse. Seeing it on your charts has clouded your view of the market. 13:45 completes the sequences required of a down traverse.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from romanus:
I got a feeling that I am attempting to apply an incorrect logic here because I am running into the paradox where only one of the two bars (13:20 or 13:45) can be dominant.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No. You aren't applying incorrect logic here. You've simply missed a few key signals from the market. Nothing more. First, Both 13:20 and 13:45 represent dominant bars. Now, If both 13:20 and 13:45 represent dominant bars, what is the only way 13:25 can't represent change?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from romanus:
I have arrived at the point where the majority of days (even if I get confused during RTH) I am able to arrive at correct annotations and analysis based on EOD debrief.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Begin with knowing that 9:50 through 13:50 represents a dominant down traverse. Start by looking for areas where you may have annotated in a dominant fashion, but the market has indicated the area represents non-dominance.
HTH.
- Spydertrader
Not very familiar with statistical charting.
Here's a chart created with Excel's default log template. Not sure how to create a semi-log chart. I'll post the figures separately, so the more technically minded can produce an accurate semi-log chart.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2166750>
Here's a chart created with Excel's default log template. Not sure how to create a semi-log chart. I'll post the figures separately, so the more technically minded can produce an accurate semi-log chart.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2166750>
Attachments
Quote from Neoxx:
Not very familiar with statistical charting.
Here's a chart created with Excel's default log template. Not sure how to create a semi-log chart. I'll post the figures separately, so the more technically minded can produce an accurate semi-log chart.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2166750>
This is a semi log chart. The vertical axis is scaled logarithmically and the horizontal scale is linear.
What you see is the Power Law at work as a straight line curve on a logarithmic scale. You are being informed that your Beginner trading handled each day equally effectively under the constraint that the market volatility (ATR) remained fairly constant and consistant during the econometric brief period.
We will expect to see the straight line be the lower straight line of a fanning family of curves.
Quote from jack hershey:
Here is a very pertinent Spyder post on traverse trading at Advanced Beginner:
11-06-08 06:52 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from romanus:
Would you be so kind to point me in the right direction so I can find a flaw in my annotations or my attempt on analysis.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9:50 through 13:50 represents one, very long, dominant Traverse down. Some may have chosen to 'fan' the Traverse on the way down.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from romanus:
It seems to me that the 13:20 bar does not represent change because the market has not arrived at pt 2 yet. However based on the slope of the dotted lines 1320 can not be pt2 because the low of the bar does not extend lower than the dashed line drawn through the low of 12:35 in parallel to the dotted lines. So, 13:20 and how it's low sits in relationship to the dashed line - just doesn't make sense for it to be pt2.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13:20 does represent a Point Two. Perhaps, another method of annotation exists - one which allows for a single down channel.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from romanus:
13:45 seems to be Pace Acceleration and not Peak Volume. And it does not represent change because the sequences are not completed yet. 13:45 also makes sense as pt2 in orange down traverse.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Delete the Orange Traverse. Seeing it on your charts has clouded your view of the market. 13:45 completes the sequences required of a down traverse.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from romanus:
I got a feeling that I am attempting to apply an incorrect logic here because I am running into the paradox where only one of the two bars (13:20 or 13:45) can be dominant.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No. You aren't applying incorrect logic here. You've simply missed a few key signals from the market. Nothing more. First, Both 13:20 and 13:45 represent dominant bars. Now, If both 13:20 and 13:45 represent dominant bars, what is the only way 13:25 can't represent change?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from romanus:
I have arrived at the point where the majority of days (even if I get confused during RTH) I am able to arrive at correct annotations and analysis based on EOD debrief.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Begin with knowing that 9:50 through 13:50 represents a dominant down traverse. Start by looking for areas where you may have annotated in a dominant fashion, but the market has indicated the area represents non-dominance.
HTH.
- Spydertrader
Thanks, Jack. Here is the accompanying chart.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2166783>