Technical analysis

[Scataphagos]

Please continue to pontificate!

Would you have a chart example handy of a a breakout and how it could be played?

Edit to say that my levels are much improved but I tend to be whipsawed if I take the other side too quickly.

The problem with breakouts... you need them to run to be legit. When they first start, you don't know whether it's going to run or be a fake-out.... easy to get whip-saw... but if you do, it shouldn't cost you too much if you made your play at/near the technically correct level. Years ago old timers used the rule of thumb... "not a genuine breakout until it exceeds the breakout price by 2%"... that would be 90 ES points right now. Nobody's going to play 2% these days.

 

[semperfrosty]

That's the kind of info I'd charge BIG $$$ for if someone with deep enough pockets thought they might benefit. Besides, I wouldn't want to deprive anyone of the thrill of figuring it out on their own. I've often said that I would advise "where to fish", but I'm not going to bait your hook and cast your line too... you have to do that yourself. (Ask "candles"... he's basically seeing it as I do.)

I've illustrated 2 of the most frequent/common... "matched low" and "matched high". Those alone are worth 7-figures to you eventually if you work it.

Of course.You share plenty.Just thought id try! haha

 

[semperfrosty]

The problem with breakouts... you need them to run to be legit. When they first start, you don't know whether it's going to run or be a fake-out.... easy to get whip-saw... but if you do it shouldn't cost you too much if you made your play at/near the technically correct level. Years ago old timers used the rule of thumb... "not a genuine breakout until it exceeds the breakout price by 2%"... that would be 90 ES points right now. Nobody's going to play 2% these days.

Gotcha.Thanks again.

 

[Scataphagos]

TA is TA, nothing more.

How could there BE anything more? TA (well, at least "Price TA") is the gold standard.

KISS, baby!

 

[murray t turtle]

I think this is a bit silly.

How do you actually know what a "sense" is? How do you quantify it to ensure you are not just thinking there is something there that is not?

Can we objectively beforehand define what a "sense" is?

%%
WELL it is + would be + is for a man to say that ''sense'';
but good start / with write doWn price every 5 minutes for a week;
+ ten year$.
But\ she also like$ a 50dma;
may not help much there are so many of 50dma types; some would even say a silly number of 50dma .Amen
LBR also was the one that told the joke /a husband brought home a can of stinkin' sardines\ priced @ $199. his wife told him never to do that again, those stinkin sardines are for tradin' not bringing home. A bit of a broad brush, but if you ever find yourself with something about 100 x WMT price[sardines for example] tighTen up stops, maybe not auto sell @ $199 profitLOL
EVEN if she is promoting the price on her Trading Sardines book/ good points

 

[Tall Mike]

%%
WELL it is + would be + is for a man to say that ''sense'';
but good start / with write doWn price every 5 minutes for a week;
+ ten year$.
But\ she also like$ a 50dma;
may not help much there are so many of 50dma types; some would even say a silly number of 50dma .Amen
LBR also was the one that told the joke /a husband brought home a can of stinkin' sardines\ priced @ $199. his wife told him never to do that again, those stinkin sardines are for tradin' not bringing home. A bit of a broad brush, but if you ever find yourself with something about 100 x WMT price[sardines for example] tighTen up stops, maybe not auto sell @ $199 profitLOL
EVEN if she is promoting the price on her Trading Sardines book/ good points

I went from being a religious desiple of these people learning from their courses and books, to now being synical AF.

They are all FOS in my opinion. Let's see LBR's track record over the past 20 years and see how it holds up.

Any of these BS artists selling books. Do their methods work as well as they claim?

Lets see a Tax return and see how your trading income compares to your income from webinars, member sites, and selling BS.

I am calling BS. Edges are hard to find, and the last thing you want are more eyes on it once you found one.

My own process has been, read some academic books on how markets work, do your own backtesting and form your own conclusions.

and most importantly, understand you WONT do better than indexing. Just accept this is a fun game, and your willing to accept that in your endeavor.

 

[taowave]

Great post and I completely agree that for 98% of retail traders,they would be far better off finding a job they love and dollar cost averaging....

There are are guys like Minervini,Ryan and Kulamagi who are similar in style,but IMHO its their money management/position sizing first and foremost that adds alpha

Lets see a 5 year track record of the TA heretics

I went from being a religious desiple of these people learning from their courses and books, to now being synical AF.

They are all FOS in my opinion. Let's see LBR's track record over the past 20 years and see how it holds up.

Any of these BS artists selling books. Do their methods work as well as they claim?

Lets see a Tax return and see how your trading income compares to your income from webinars, member sites, and selling BS.

I am calling BS. Edges are hard to find, and the last thing you want are more eyes on it once you found one.

My own process has been, read some academic books on how markets work, do your own backtesting and form your own conclusions.

and most importantly, understand you WONT do better than indexing. Just accept this is a fun game, and your willing to accept that in your endeavor.

 

[deaddog]

Let's see LBR's track record over the past 20 years and see how it holds up.

I take it you have tried her strategies without any success.
I wonder why you single her out of all the vendors.
I believe she is actually one of the few vendors who were actually successful traders.
I think Schwager did his research before including her as a market wizard.

 

[comagnum]

LBR was making a living trading for decades before the self proclaimed Youtube gurus showed up & began selling their crap.

She has been generous providing countless free training videos for years on end before she started a subscriber service.

 

[Tall Mike]

I take it you have tried her strategies without any success.
I wonder why you single her out of all the vendors.
I believe she is actually one of the few vendors who were actually successful traders.
I think Schwager did his research before including her as a market wizard.

Im calling out everybody. Not just her. They are all FOS, including all vendors on this site. They all just hide behind the BS disclaimer that is paraphrased like "buyer beware, this isn't real trading. its education".

More money in selling the dream and software than in the edge itself.

Also she said in one of her videos "do the backtest yourself. don't take anybody word for it".

And so I did - and it doesn't hold up. Go test all the strategies in Street Smarts yourself. All don't do better than indexing.

her edge dried up - period. https://www.iasg.com/en/groups/granat-fund-llc-/programs/granat-fund-llc-granat-fund-class-a-

Only public track record of hers out there. Credit where credit is do - she did well on this timeframe. But we have no way to see how she has done since. Id wager not as good.

More money in telling stories about the floor than actual trading.