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Technical Analysis Doesn't Work
- Thread starter rcanfiel
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Quote from jack hershey:
Anything below 50,000 is of no interest to me.
Okay, I just ran across this:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=92918&perpage=6&pagenumber=8
This guy (ranfiel) is just Phishing and can't trade. 40 points month or whatever (see Jimmy Jams comments) is not remotely in the league I play in. See spyders comment to 22 in rough trader thread. For your convenience:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...553&perpage=6&highlight=hershey&pagenumber=16
From this point on I am only going to be relating to people who has some minimum level of sensibility. I am putting ranfiel and surf on ignore from this point on.
This guy (ranfiel) is not someone either Prof or I could ever relate to.
Yes. Why did you think trying to compare penis sizes has anything to do with proving or disproving TA???
You asked for my track record.I responded...
Longterm studies of the value of TA are pretty pitiful. Quoting your resume does not change this. It is not about credentials and belief. It is about the validity or not of TA. You have said little so far that has pushed this forward.
Rcanfeil,
Do you honestly think the studies you are finding are worth the paper they are written on??? Wake up...Go to the major Hedge Funds,especially market netural,and see how much the partners will divulge regarding their traders.If its a successful strategy,you get absolutely nothing from them,and I can assure you there are no "LONG TERM" studies...That is utterly ridiculous
I have managed long short traders who have at most 5 losing days per year.Their trade is 100% automated,and positions are not carried overnight.It is technical in nature,but not as you naively think T.A is.But it is technical.
I will add that they can not trade more than 25 million dollars in that strategy due to volume constraints and liquidity issues,but they do return close to 50%...
You asked for my track record.I responded...
Longterm studies of the value of TA are pretty pitiful. Quoting your resume does not change this. It is not about credentials and belief. It is about the validity or not of TA. You have said little so far that has pushed this forward.
Rcanfeil,
Do you honestly think the studies you are finding are worth the paper they are written on??? Wake up...Go to the major Hedge Funds,especially market netural,and see how much the partners will divulge regarding their traders.If its a successful strategy,you get absolutely nothing from them,and I can assure you there are no "LONG TERM" studies...That is utterly ridiculous
I have managed long short traders who have at most 5 losing days per year.Their trade is 100% automated,and positions are not carried overnight.It is technical in nature,but not as you naively think T.A is.But it is technical.
I will add that they can not trade more than 25 million dollars in that strategy due to volume constraints and liquidity issues,but they do return close to 50%...
Quote from jack hershey:
"From this point on I am only going to be relating to people who has some minimum level of sensibility. I am putting ranfiel and surf on ignore from this point on."
Jack, that is one way to avoid a challenge. Put your head in the sand until you hope they go away...
"This guy (ranfiel) is not someone either Prof or I could ever relate to. "
Yes. Since you appear unable to trade real money profitably (as is obviated by huge numbers of people who have basically called you out), why do you bother to post, outside of basking in the glow of people who somehow are enamoured of Hersheyism?
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Quote from taowave:
Longterm studies of the value of TA are pretty pitiful. Quoting your resume does not change this. It is not about credentials and belief. It is about the validity or not of TA. You have said little so far that has pushed this forward.
"Rcanfeil,
Do you honestly think the studies you are finding are worth the paper they are written on??? "
Well, should I take the opinion of an anonymous poster compared to pretty much the mainstream research on TA, performed over decades by a large number of institutions?
"Wake up...Go to the major Hedge Funds,especially market netural,and see how much the partners will divulge regarding their traders.If its a successful strategy,you get absolutely nothing from them,and I can assure you there are no "LONG TERM" studies..."
Well, should people take the opinion of those from who "absolutely nothing" can be understood regarding their methods, or others who openly post exhaustive research that shows little value of TA?
"I have managed long short traders who have at most 5 losing days per year.Their trade is 100% automated,and positions are not carried overnight.It is technical in nature,but not as you naively think T.A is.But it is technical."
You seem honest, but this is too nebulous. Few of the people here in ET land work on a trading floor for their bread. I worked on a large IB trading floor, but ET folks claim to be mostly home traders. But the problem remains, that only testimonial evidence ever seems to get into this to defend TA. And as I posted several times before, the fact that testimony cannot be examined to eliminate for many other factors limits this. Large financial institutions have many advantages, as I suspect market making, arbitrage and other things are involved in a company's profitability. Not to mention wealth management, brokerage and other things adding to the pot.
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rcanfiel
Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 828
08-30-07 11:50 PM
Nobody is paying anyone. Stop trying to throw up flak and distractions. Now please address the Terms and Conditions post so we can get this show on the road. You seem to have glossed over it. I will await your return.
___________________________________________________
Wait till the cows come home. If you aren't willing to PUT up some CASH to back up your trash talk . . . SHUT UP and go away.
I'll trade you head to head in the emini DOW, NASDAQ, S&P, Crude, Russell, or the eGrains. Not a problem here. I just won't do it for free. You will loose.
Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 828
08-30-07 11:50 PM
Nobody is paying anyone. Stop trying to throw up flak and distractions. Now please address the Terms and Conditions post so we can get this show on the road. You seem to have glossed over it. I will await your return.
___________________________________________________
Wait till the cows come home. If you aren't willing to PUT up some CASH to back up your trash talk . . . SHUT UP and go away.
I'll trade you head to head in the emini DOW, NASDAQ, S&P, Crude, Russell, or the eGrains. Not a problem here. I just won't do it for free. You will loose.
Quote from ProfLogic:
Wait till the cows come home. If you aren't willing to PUT up some CASH to back up your trash talk . . . SHUT UP and go away.
I'll trade you head to head in the emini DOW, NASDAQ, S&P, Crude, Russell, or the eGrains. Not a problem here. I just won't do it for free. You will loose.
That is pretty much what I thought you would say. Like Jack, you are weaseling out. When someone talks but does not know how to trade. But then again, this is what appears to have happened before:
"bali_survivor: he (ProfLogic) was supposed to be starting a trading contest right here on ET but that has been cancelled
vhehn: good luck on that one. the prof is a little hard to pin down. i suspect he likes it that way.
downtickboy: Yea check the other ET thread as linked to above where he claimed he was going to trade for 20 days and post his results after having a drawn out disagreement with marketsurfer on the idea of trends. Prof was the one pushing for this trading contest/exercise and calling marketsurfer out only to back out of it himself after he was the one who set the time fram and start date.
benyls: I dont think professor logic will deliver what he has promised. There is tons of excuses and debate going on over there. Well it is always not easy to post statement, but what is ironical is nobody force him and he himself set the date and he himself mention he will post the statement. I was thinking of joining his class with 2 of my friend but now I will think thrice.
And of course:
"Quote from spike500:
To all the Proflogic supporters:
the websites announced 4079 pips for january. Is there ANY TRADER who can prove that he made 10% of this amount in REAL TRADING following Proflogic's method?
I don't think so. So what is the value of hypothetical returns if NOBODY succeeds to make even 10% of this return? With a very conservative margin this still means over 300% return in 1 month. Proflogic makes barely 10% of 10% of what his system can make. So he makes only 1 out of 100 pips.
I make easily over 50% of the returns that my system generates; even in the worst periods.
What Prof logic does is promise a Mercedes, sell a Hyundai and telling people that the Hyundai has in fact the potential of the Mercedes. If it drives like a Hyundai it's the driver's fault.."
"Quote from spike500:
To all the Proflogic supporters:
the websites announced 4079 pips for january. Is there ANY TRADER who can prove that he made 10% of this amount in REAL TRADING following Proflogic's method?
I don't think so. So what is the value of hypothetical returns if NOBODY succeeds to make even 10% of this return? With a very conservative margin this still means over 300% return in 1 month. Proflogic makes barely 10% of 10% of what his system can make. So he makes only 1 out of 100 pips.
I make easily over 50% of the returns that my system generates; even in the worst periods.
What Prof logic does is promise a Mercedes, sell a Hyundai and telling people that the Hyundai has in fact the potential of the Mercedes. If it drives like a Hyundai it's the driver's fault.."
And of course:
"you (ProfLogic) bring this on your self. i have followed your battles on elite for over a year now. you have been challenged by dozens of people on this site to put up some proof. so far you hedge every time. in over 20 years in this business i have met many like you. something smells. i have only met one trader teacher so far who was willing to put it on the line in real time. most of the others could talk much better than they trade. i am still waiting for a year of your trading confirms so i can match them up to your website trades."
"you (ProfLogic) bring this on your self. i have followed your battles on elite for over a year now. you have been challenged by dozens of people on this site to put up some proof. so far you hedge every time. in over 20 years in this business i have met many like you. something smells. i have only met one trader teacher so far who was willing to put it on the line in real time. most of the others could talk much better than they trade. i am still waiting for a year of your trading confirms so i can match them up to your website trades."
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