Technical Analysis Doesn't Work

[rcanfiel]

Quote from ProfLogic:


My pleasure but I asked once before and you backed out. If you have something of value to put up I'm in. If not . . . stop asking.

Terms? Results need to have reasonable Sharpe, Profit Factor, and Risk:Reward ratio. For example, a Larry Williams style shoot for the moon 1,000+ return with Profit Factor of 1.2, high Risk of Ruin and low Sharpe on $300 daytrading margins does not trump a 300% return with Profit Factor of 7 and Sharpe of 5 at 3:1 leverage. Also, the trades must be in reasonably tradeable instruments. Shorting 3000 shares of something with daily volume of 800 is unrealistic.

The results must be as tradeable with real money as with papertrading. And the results must include an agreed-upon standard slippage/commission, since this is also real world. Scalping returns would struggle compared to something that holds for a week at a time, in the real world.

Monitoring method? We can choose either Timertrac.com (free) or posting entries and exits BEFORE the fact here in this thread, or I suggest we create a new thread for posted trades. (doctored) "broker's" statements are unacceptable. Results MUST be independently monitored.

Method? I plan to trade open-to-close of index futures instruments (ES, for example) at approx 7:1 leverage, although that can vary depending on opportunity. Some days are less opportune than others

 

[alex.samant]

"Method? I plan to trade open-to-close of index futures instruments (ES, for example) at approx 7:1 leverage, although that can vary depending on opportunity. Some days are less opportune than others"


Hahahhahah.... Swell

 

[learner2007]

Sorry to interrupt your friendly conversation, but what's
all the fuss about? The Dow reversal pattern existed and
worked 100 years ago and still does today as seen at the
bottom of the decline on 8/17 in a 5 minute chart of the S&P
500. The basis of TA!

If you learn and stick to the simple basics, and don't try
to predict where prices will be on your dog's birthday,
you will have the law of averages on your side,as the
basics are the basics because they work the majority
of the time.

 

[rcanfiel]

Quote from alex.samant:

"Method? I plan to trade open-to-close of index futures instruments (ES, for example) at approx 7:1 leverage, although that can vary depending on opportunity. Some days are less opportune than others"


Hahahhahah.... Swell

Another content-filled post from the master...

 

[rcanfiel]

Quote from rcanfiel:

Terms? Results need to have reasonable Sharpe, Profit Factor, and Risk:Reward ratio.

Jack Hershey

Here is your chance to get in on the action. Since you are such a wealth of experience and knowledge, you can join us in showing your trading acumen!!!

I know you would NEVER turn down the opportunity. And please don't reply with the expected "too busy" or "my methods are too hard to quantify" or "others have shown my vast abilities" etc. etc.

 

[taowave]

Quote from rcanfiel:

Jack Hershey

Here is your chance to get in on the action. Since you are such a wealth of experience and knowledge, you can join us in showing your trading acumen!!!

I know you would NEVER turn down the opportunity. And please don't reply with the expected "too busy" or "my methods are too hard to quantify" or "others have shown my vast abilities" etc. etc.

Rcanfiel,I think you are on to something...There should be an "Elite Trader" trading showdown..Its time to separate the posers from the traders...

There should be consensus from those involved as to the rules of the contest.Lets attempt to make it as "real" as humanly possible,and not some bullshit contest where you trade 50,000 shares of some 2 dollar stock that has no float..

There are some pretty spectacular claims made on this board..Lets find out who can walk the talk once and for all...

 

[rcanfiel]

Quote from taowave:

Rcanfiel,I think you are on to something...There should be an "Elite Trader" trading showdown..Its time to separate the posers from the traders...

There should be consensus from those involved as to the rules of the contest.Lets attempt to make it as "real" as humanly possible,and not some bullshit contest where you trade 50,000 shares of some 2 dollar stock that has no float..

There are some pretty spectacular claims made on this board..Lets find out who can walk the talk once and for all...

Amen

I get tired of the people saying "you can't measure that" or "you don't know anything; I have been daytrading 2 months and I am therefore a longterm profitable trader" or "here is my broker statements (of course I doctored them first in powerpoint)" or "I make $6K a day but I refuse to demo it or let you know my logic" or "I know someone who knows someone who makes a million a day" or "what do studies prove? I know it works therefore that is evidence enough" or "I am a successful daytrading guru - love & worship me" or ""I don't have time for that" etc. etc.

If they shy away from independent testing, then you know they are a papertrader.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Quote from rcanfiel:

Amen

I get tired of the people saying "you can't measure that" or "you don't know anything; I have been daytrading 2 months and I am therefore a longterm profitable trader" or "here is my broker statements (of course I doctored them first in powerpoint)" or "I make $6K a day but I refuse to demo it or let you know my logic" or "I know someone who knows someone who makes a million a day" or "what do studies prove? I know it works therefore that is evidence enough" or "I am a successful daytrading guru - love & worship me" or ""I don't have time for that" etc. etc.

If they shy away from independent testing, then you know they are a papertrader.

To be fair to both sides, what is the motivation or compensation for any successful trader to show you their logic, let you demo it or give you brokerage statements (especially since you will claim all are doctored so no point there).

You ask a lot from someone to have their trading logic and systems opened up to you to prove a point. If someone wants to make claims how they are trading well, I still do not see any motivation for them to prove with personal information on a message board.

I do not think you are entitled to any of it really just because you ask. I have been making money trading full time using nothing but TA tools (I still make the trading decisions but use price charts to analyze), but I see no gain on my part to prove my approach works to someone who simply claims it is not true.

I assume most traders would feel the same way so your request seems silly for such information. If you think something does not work, that's fine. But I have yet to see anything where a trader is obligated to prove anything to you. Many here are arguing with you here which is also silly.

Traders have nothing to prove to anyone outside of their immediate circle and anyone who tries to prove something to random strangers is looking for false vindication when only p/l matters.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from ProfLogic:

rcanfiel

Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 728

08-26-07 01:00 AM
____________________________________________________

I would be more than happy to compete with you one on one in a competition. Perhaps you would care to put up all your hot air on the line.
____________________________________________________

My pleasure but I asked once before and you backed out. If you have something of value to put up I'm in. If not . . . stop asking.

Hi Prof,

I looked for a response and it was so off the mark.

We both know this guy is Phishing of informantion.

I think the put up or shut up approach is really cool.

As for his terms...I loved the Phishing response. He has nothing to offer and he wants to get something he a can try to merchandise later using his current MO.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from optioncoach:

To be fair to both sides, what is the motivation or compensation for any successful trader to show you their logic, let you demo it or give you brokerage statements (especially since you will claim all are doctored so no point there).

You ask a lot from someone to have their trading logic and systems opened up to you to prove a point. If someone wants to make claims how they are trading well, I still do not see any motivation for them to prove with personal information on a message board.

I do not think you are entitled to any of it really just because you ask. I have been making money trading full time using nothing but TA tools (I still make the trading decisions but use price charts to analyze), but I see no gain on my part to prove my approach works to someone who simply claims it is not true.

I assume most traders would feel the same way so your request seems silly for such information. If you think something does not work, that's fine. But I have yet to see anything where a trader is obligated to prove anything to you. Many here are arguing with you here which is also silly.

Traders have nothing to prove to anyone outside of their immediate circle and anyone who tries to prove something to random strangers is looking for false vindication when only p/l matters.

ranfiel has been Phishing since day one. Thanks for artiulating that for us.