Technical Analysis Doesn't Work

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Quote from Thunderdog:

marketsurfer,

You "artfully" deflected the question. How do you trade if you do not employ any elements of TA? I'm not looking for specifics. Broad brush will do.
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thank you, tdog.

i employ a variety of methods, and yes, i have charts on my screens to visualize and get an intuitive feel for whats happening.

however, this does not mean im deluded enough to think TA is giving me any kind of "edge"

regards,

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

allow me to correct the factual errors in TD's post. i'm open to anything and everything in order to gain an edge trading. my mind is not closed to TA, its just that when tested properly, TA fails. this isn't my opinion, this is fact.

TA is appealing to people since it looks easy, and provides a nice map of the past. unfortunately, the map is not the territory http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Korzybski

the market exists to take the most amount of money from the greatest number of people--- TA is the de riguer method of trading for the public, since the popularization of the PC. TA use to be much more difficult requiring hand charting,etc. now its easy and much of it is FREE--- what could be more seductive??

Trade what you think, not what you see.

regards,

surf

ps. as a side example-- think of all the excellent charting packages provided for free by forex dealers--GFT comes to mind, their deal book is quite good for a free platform---- remember,most forex dealers take the other side of your trades-- would they be providing all these TA tools for free so you would be able to beat them??? or rather, providing the tools since you will have the Illusion of an edge, but still be losing? It keeps one in the game longer, hence losing more money....

TA has the function of creating illusion in order to keep people banging away losing money--why else would the "market infrastructure" be so supportive of it??
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Every invention that was ever made was supposed to be impossible to be made. Because nobody knew how to invent it. Till one day someone found a way and did the invention that was supposed to be "uninventable".


Wikipedia:Some inventions represent a radical breakthrough in science or technology which extends the boundaries of human knowledge.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

my mind is not closed to TA, its just that when tested properly, TA fails. this isn't my opinion, this is fact.
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This is kinda like somebody pre-1800 saying "when tested properly, medicine fails".

So why bother with medicine at all? Because the alternative is worse? Because even pre-science doctors knew that they didn't know everything that there was to know about medicine, and that the room for improvement was vast?

You continually imply that ALL of TA is crap, because most publicly disclosed TA is crap. Maybe it's time to stop generalizing from publicly known TA to future and presently undisclosed TA.

You can't praise EBTA on the one hand and say "TA doesn't work" on the other hand, when Aronson himself says he still has hopes for TA. Aronson's tests indicate that single-rule public TA systems don't bode well. That has nothing to do multiple-rule systems nor undisclosed-rule systems. Aronson knows this.
 
Quote from kut2k2:

This is kinda like somebody pre-1800 saying "when tested properly, medicine fails".

So why bother with medicine at all? Because the alternative is worse? Because even pre-science doctors knew that they didn't know everything that there was to know about medicine, and that the room for improvement was vast?

You continually imply that ALL of TA is crap, because most publicly disclosed TA is crap. Maybe it's time to stop generalizing from publicly known TA to future and presently undisclosed TA.

You can't praise EBTA on the one hand and say "TA doesn't work" on the other hand, when Aronson himself says he still has hopes for TA. Aronson's tests indicate that single-rule public TA systems don't bode well. That has nothing to do multiple-rule systems nor undisclosed-rule systems. Aronson knows this.
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ok.

TA consists of price/volume---no matter how you mix, slice it, dice it or crunch it. secret rules, the future of TA--thats all mumbo jumbo, unlike medicine, TA has two basic components. these other things are best left to mystics and the pseudo scientific like et's own proflogic.

EBTA was the first full book to look at the subject in a true scientific manner--- its a great book, however this does not mean I agree with DA 100%.

best,

surf
 
ok.

TA consists of price/volume---no matter how you mix, slice it, dice it or crunch it. secret rules, the future of TA--thats all mumbo jumbo, unlike medicine, TA has two basic components. these other things are best left to mystics and the pseudo scientific like et's own proflogic.
More...

Wrongo. There are three degrees of freedom, e.g., price, volume and time. N'est ce pas?

lj
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

thank you, tdog.

i employ a variety of methods, and yes, i have charts on my screens to visualize and get an intuitive feel for whats happening.

however, this does not mean im deluded enough to think TA is giving me any kind of "edge"

regards,

surf
More...
Sorry, but "a variety of methods" is a tad vague, even for someone asking for a broad brush response. It is a non-answer. Could you please be a bit more specific?

As for charts on a screen, do they not just show you past price data? And, according to you, is not past price data of no significance in ascertaining the possible future course of prices? Because, if so, then is your own use of charts on a screen not entirely superfluous according to your own logic? I'm just trying to reconcile the logic of your claims with the nature of your conduct. I think it is interesting that you regard TA as useless because it is not objective, but you use charts to "visualize and get an intuitive feel." On the other hand, I do use rudimentary TA and I personally hate visualizing or using intuition -- my rules are almost entirely and objectively if/then. Funny, eh?

Reference to edge is, at best, a moot point. We do what we do in the way that we do it because we think it will enhance our chances of making money. Label it as you please.
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

Sorry, but "a variety of methods" is a tad vague, even for someone asking for a broad brush response. It is a non-answer. Could you please be a bit more specific?

As for charts on a screen, do they not just show you past price data? And, according to you, is not past price data of no significance in ascertaining the possible future course of prices? Because, if so, then is your own use of charts on a screen not entirely superfluous according to your own logic? I'm just trying to reconcile the logic of your claims with the nature of your conduct. I think it is interesting that you regard TA as useless because it is not objective, but you use charts to "visualize and get an intuitive feel." On the other hand, I do use rudimentary TA and I personally hate visualizing or using intuition -- my rules are almost entirely and objectively if/then. Funny, eh?

Reference to edge is, at best, a moot point. We do what we do in the way that we do it because we think it will enhance our chances of making money. Label it as you please.
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Lucidity abounds this grey, wet West Coast morning.

lj
 
For what it's worth, the S&P just found support and "bounced" off the 50% retracement from 1506.10 to 1555.90, coming thru at 1531.00
 
Quote from ljyoung:

Wrongo. There are three degrees of freedom, e.g., price, volume and time. N'est ce pas?

lj
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true. however, some TA doesnt use time PF and apparently proflogic method.

thank you,
surf
 
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