Technical Analysis Doesn't Work

[rcanfiel]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Sorry, but "a variety of methods" is a tad vague, even for someone asking for a broad brush response. It is a non-answer. Could you please be a bit more specific?

As for charts on a screen, do they not just show you past price data? And, according to you, is not past price data of no significance in ascertaining the possible future course of prices? Because, if so, then is your own use of charts on a screen not entirely superfluous according to your own logic? I'm just trying to reconcile the logic of your claims with the nature of your conduct. I think it is interesting that you regard TA as useless because it is not objective, but you use charts to "visualize and get an intuitive feel." On the other hand, I do use rudimentary TA and I personally hate visualizing or using intuition -- my rules are almost entirely and objectively if/then. Funny, eh?

Reference to edge is, at best, a moot point. We do what we do in the way that we do it because we think it will enhance our chances of making money. Label it as you please.

Why don't you do your own work? Nobody is obligated to train you into what works.

Anyway, that is the excuse of many of the TA-philes. "If it works, users of TA aren't going to reveal it."

So why should the TA-doubters give away what works for them?

Repeating and straining marketsurfer does not take away your obligation to learn.

Plenty of people here on ET say that you should just ditch the rainbow of indicators and look at the price action.

Go try it. If you are not willing, then please stop asking.

 

[rcanfiel]

Quote from ProfLogic:

Logic as a product of Statistics which it isn't. Statistics is rampant with variables which is the exact opposite of Logic.

Didn't you just play with these words in your reply to me? Do you like sounding smart?

From your numerous mistakes and unwillingness to acknowledge, I don't know how you ever make it as a Professor or "Logic". You seem like a complete oxymoron, with the accent on the last 2 syllables.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from marketsurfer:

true. however, some TA doesnt use time PF and apparently proflogic method.

thank you,
surf

Markets aren't traded in time they are traded in shares or contracts.

If your broker pays you profit on the change of price in the markets over a specific amount of time please supply his or her name so we may be enlightened.

I make profit when the price of the market I'm trading moves in my favor . . . regardless of whether it takes 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 44 minutes, 71 minutes, 5 hours, 3 days, etc.

 

[Ares1]

It is not on the many thousand tries that failed but what counts is what worked.

I'm still trying to get into the minds of professionals and experienced traders to try and trade WITH them.

Quote from spike500:

Every invention that was ever made was supposed to be impossible to be made. Because nobody knew how to invent it. Till one day someone found a way and did the invention that was supposed to be "uninventable".


Wikipedia:Some inventions represent a radical breakthrough in science or technology which extends the boundaries of human knowledge.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from marketsurfer:

. . . however, my associates who work on such things have reached different conclusions.

regards,
surf

Ever intensely and rigorously test anything original on your own?

 

[rcanfiel]

Quote from Landis82:

For what it's worth, the S&P just found support and "bounced" off the 50% retracement from 1506.10 to 1555.90, coming thru at 1531.00

DEFINITION

<b>Landis:</b> one to whom an example or two is usually sufficient to serve as proof of a premise. <i>See also:</i> "well-chosen example..."

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from ProfLogic:

Ever intensely and rigorously test anything original on your own?

no, testing is not my personal expertise. i don't perform heart surgery, either.

i don't believe it's your expertise nor original either, although you want others to think so.

surf

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from rcanfiel:

Didn't you just play with these words in your reply to me? Do you like sounding smart?

From your numerous mistakes and unwillingness to acknowledge, I don't know how you ever make it as a Professor or "Logic". You seem like a complete oxymoron, with the accent on the last 2 syllables.

When someone brings a conversation with you to a point where you are unfamiliar or lack knowledge, instead of verifying and learning from it, you revert to name calling. You speak of my mistakes but by simply calling them mistakes doesn't make it so. If I have stated something in error, please inform me of the correct rationalization of my statement. This is how normal people communicate and learn from that communication.

You never clarify any statement, just start slinging mud and turning on the flame. I guess if it makes you feel better that is acceptable in your world . . . small as it may be. This attitude will not get you far in your cube based environment but then I can only assume you are not old enough to understand that as of yet.

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from rcanfiel:

Why don't you do your own work? Nobody is obligated to train you into what works.

Anyway, that is the excuse of many of the TA-philes. "If it works, users of TA aren't going to reveal it."

So why should the TA-doubters give away what works for them?

Repeating and straining marketsurfer does not take away your obligation to learn.

Plenty of people here on ET say that you should just ditch the rainbow of indicators and look at the price action.

Go try it. If you are not willing, then please stop asking.

Excuse me? Do you think I am looking to learn here? Did you not read in my post which you quoted that I already have my own method of trading which employs the most rudimentary of TA principles? If you took the time to actually read my post, then you would see that I wanted a broad brush idea of what surfer used in the absence of historical market data. That was the extent of my inquiry. I was merely trying to put a finer point on marketsurfer's claims and arguments. Perhaps you should review the exchange before chiming in on that very exchange.

And if it is not yet clear to you, marketsurfer does indeed employ the very historical data that he continues to repudiate. He also admits to subjectively looking at charts to get an intuitive feel, a practice which he also condemns as worthless. Interestingly, I use TA and yet I avoid subjective interpretation. Go figure. I already wrote all of this in my post which you quoted. Go back and read it slowly.

Forgive me, and kindly permit me this observation: you have come across as entirely oblivious to the salient issues of the exchange you are referring to. Coupled with your dismissive arrogance, you present yourself as an asshole.

 

[Landis82]

Quote from rcanfiel:

one to whom an example or two is usually sufficient to serve as proof of a premise. <i>See also:</i> "well-chosen example..."

You are sadly mistaken my friend.

I, as well as many others have used simple fib retracements for the past 25 years and found them to be most significant, and helpful in providing support/resistant levels.

But for some bizarre reason, you don't believe that PRICE has anything to do with TA.