Technical Analysis = CRAP

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Quote from ProfLogic:

You are, by your own admission, a failed day trader. This being said you are not one to understand the psychological aspects and benefits to a trader of being able to "see" the trade set up play out BEFORE the trade label appears on the chart.
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I'm not sure I understand you. The labels appear "after the trade sets up and plays out". Your words.... So it labels what has already happened and this is some kind of confidence building tool for traders who have problems executing trades?

If it happens after the fact, no amount of rhetoric will create value for real traders.

What am I missing?

Surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

I'm not sure I understand you. The labels appear "after the trade sets up and plays out". Your words.... So it labels what has already happened and this is some kind of confidence building tool for traders who have problems executing trades?

If it happens after the fact, no amount of rhetoric will create value for real traders.

What am I missing?

Surf
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That isn't what I said, regardless of how you spin it.

I said, "the benefits to a trader of being able to "see" the trade set up play out BEFORE the trade label appears on the chart."

I can best describe this as seeing a baseball player hitting a baseball clearly between the center fielder (playing far to the left) and the right fielder (playing far to the right). You know that when it falls in between them it is only a matter of probabilities whether the runner will make it to second base because making it to FIRST BASE IS A GIVEN.

I can see the trade begin to play out or set up BEFORE the label (trigger) appears on the chart. This way I am prepared to execute the trade the moment the label appears on the chart. The same goes for the reversal or the exit. I can see by what is happening on the chart that an exit or reversal is about to happen so I am prepared to execute the trade the moment the label appears on the chart. The label is my CONFIRMATION to take or exit a trade.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

That isn't what I said, regardless of how you spin it.

I said, "the benefits to a trader of being able to "see" the trade set up play out BEFORE the trade label appears on the chart."

I can best describe this as seeing a baseball player hitting a baseball clearly between the center fielder (playing far to the left) and the right fielder (playing far to the right). You know that when it falls in between them it is only a matter of probabilities whether the runner will make it to second base because making it to FIRST BASE IS A GIVEN.

I can see the trade begin to play out or set up BEFORE the label (trigger) appears on the chart. This way I am prepared to execute the trade the moment the label appears on the chart. The same goes for the reversal or the exit. I can see by what is happening on the chart that an exit or reversal is about to happen so I am prepared to execute the trade the moment the label appears on the chart. The label is my CONFIRMATION to take or exit a trade.
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Ok, just so there is no ambiguity, the trade is taken when the label appears-- not after or before--- right?

Surf
 
Prof, it's too hard to explain to the casual mkt participant exactly what the savy trader knows and understands. It's like Ted Williams trying to explain to a little leaguer all the exact mechanics that went into his swing as well as how he saw the ball coming out if the pitchers hand and how he picked up the rotation to decide whether its a fast ball or something offspeed all within a few milliseconds.

You are very kind for trying though. I'm not as kind as you :)
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Ok, just so there is no ambiguity, the trade is taken when the label appears-- not after or before--- right?

Surf
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THE TRADE IS EXECUTED THE MOMENT THE LABEL APPEARS!

The better the trader's ability to read the chart (which isn't hard), the better the trader is prepared to take the trade or exit when the label does appear.

The computer's ability to trade this is better (faster) because there is less slippage between the appearance of the label and the execution of the trade but that is the difference between manual and box.
 
Quote from Fireplace:

Prof, it's too hard to explain to the casual mkt participant exactly what the savy trader knows and understands. It's like Ted Williams trying to explain to a little leaguer all the exact mechanics that went into his swing as well as how he saw the ball coming out if the pitchers hand and how he picked up the rotation to decide whether its a fast ball or something offspeed all within a few milliseconds.

You are very kind for trying though. I'm not as kind as you :)
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Funny you use the batter's ability to know which pitch he wants to swing at (sweet spot). I used to use the same analogy. The best hitters off all time took thousands of hours of batting practice so they KNEW where THEIR perfect pitch was located, yet a trader spends a hundred hours learning to trade and gives up. My goal was to simply shorten that learning curve.

I'm not doing this for surf, I'm doing this for all of the traders out there just like I was, beating my head up against the wall, trying to figure this out. Regardless of whether or not surf "sees the light" after testing this, hundreds of others will because they WILL believe it when they see it play out over and over and over and over and over and over again. The other neat part is, the edge doesn't disappear.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

You are, by your own admission, a failed day trader. This being said you are not one to understand the psychological aspects and benefits to a trader of being able to "see" the trade set up play out BEFORE the trade label appears on the chart.

Like Pavlov's Dog, condition and response. When a trader sees the same results from the same set ups (strength & price direction) over and over and over and over again, at some point they have their epiphany and learn to "trust what they see, not what they think".
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To the lurkers, archive this post and study it. It will help you.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

Like Pavlov's Dog, condition and response. When a trader sees the same results from the same set ups (strength & price direction) over and over and over and over again, at some point they have their epiphany and learn to "trust what they see, not what they think".
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:D :D

That was definitely my epiphany and it took me sooo long to believe in it. I had an ongoing irrational fear that the day I actually traded all my valid technical setups, they'd stop working.

Now after I put on the trade that I'm certain cannot possibly work yet again (because technical analysis is crap), I end up shaking my head and thinking, "I can't believe it worked again" as my target order is lifted.

Trading a solid edge effectively is the ultimate test of faith, IMHO.
 
Same with mine, because it's not based on some inefficiency that the mkt can wipe out but rather natural mkt tendencies that repeat everyday, across all time frames. I chose this path for that very reason and I'm thinking you did the same. :)

Quote from ProfLogic:

The other neat part is, the edge doesn't disappear.
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