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Technical Analysis = CRAP
- Thread starter Frits
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Obviously you TA folks know something I don't. I don't get anywhere near
"Closeout Winning Trade Percentage with STO's =92.15%"
Not even the greatest traders I have ever heard of get these results. I can't wait to see these programs!
I guess, fireplace, to make a living starting with 25k in a retail account, your results Also need to be at least that, right??
Surf
"Closeout Winning Trade Percentage with STO's =92.15%"
Not even the greatest traders I have ever heard of get these results. I can't wait to see these programs!
I guess, fireplace, to make a living starting with 25k in a retail account, your results Also need to be at least that, right??
Surf
Many of us have LEARNED what to do (and just as importantly) what NOT to do.....if we 'know' something you don't it's only because we put the time in to understand the game from the ground level. We took it past the hobby stage.
Quote from marketsurfer:
Obviously you TA folks know something I don't.
Surf
Quote from marketsurfer:
Obviously you TA folks know something I don't. I don't get anywhere near
"Closeout Winning Trade Percentage with STO's =92.15%"
Not even the greatest traders I have ever heard of get these results. I can't wait to see this program!
Surf
Easy. I win about 2 of 3 times. That's 67 wins of 100, and 33 losses of 100 on average. Multiply the wins and losses by the Risk/Reward ratio. Mine is about 1/4. So I lose 2% of my account on the losses (33% of the time) and gain 8% of my account on the wins (66% of the time) on average. One third x 2% weighted against two thirds x 8% makes a new winning trade ratio of 8:1. That comes out to about 88.88% (8/9), just shy of the 92.15% mark you mentioned. Change the win/loss ratio ever so slightly and you're above 92% easily.
Quote from J.Joseph:
Easy. I win about 2 of 3 times. That's 67 wins of 100, and 33 losses of 100 on average. Multiply the wins and losses by the Risk/Reward ratio. Mine is about 1/4. So I lose 2% of my account on the losses (33% of the time) and gain 8% of my account on the wins (66% of the time) on average. One third x 2% weighted against two thirds x 8% makes a new winning trade ratio of 8:1. That comes out to about 88.88% (8/9), just shy of the 92.15% mark you mentioned. Change the win/loss ratio ever so slightly and you're above 92% easily.
Do you base your trades on directional TA or is this some type of interexchange arbitrage like I did in the early 2000's?
Thanks
Quote from marketsurfer:
Do you base your trades on directional TA or is this some type of interexchange arbitrage like I did in the early 2000's?
Thanks
Not sure, I'd have to look up what arbitrage is. I'm sure it's directional though. I base my analysis on crowd theory. The agreement or discord between five crowds trading on five different time scales (day traders= crowd 1, Swing traders = crowd 2, long term investors = crowd 5) will determine whether the movement is a trend or counter-trend, and on what time scale. When at least 3 consecutive crowds are in agreement and have the buying power to do so, I trade. And it goes well most of the time. In fact, my true percentages have been 19 wins of 24 with 2 break-evens this year.
That's a novel concept, j Joseph. Thanks!
Surf
Surf
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