TBA99 - Trade Journal 2012

I haven't posted here in a long time. The testing phase (school) continues. All of the new equipment is now installed and operational. I am still tweaking my skills and strategy. The strategy has been net positive for the past two years. The objective that I have set in order to consider live trading is to take a small account of (80K)and make a return of 30% profit in a single year (104K)(Estimated test time remaining 17 weeks). Once this result is achieved, testing will focus on utilizing a dedicated hedge account to increase % return (Estimated test time 10 weeks). The final strategy tests will focus on increasing share volume (Estimated test time 10 weeks). Graduation awaits - I hope.

To make it interesting I thought I'd post my end of day simulator account balance, P/L, and % return. I will also post any overnight stock holdings - purchase price + volume

Test Phase 1:

Start Date: June 28, 2012
Account Opening Balance: $80,000.00
Account Goal: $104,000.00


Current Account Balance: $86551.06
Annual % Return: 8.2%

2012-09-12 P/L: $277.92


Overnight Holdings;
COP (400) $56.46
CHKP (400) $48.12
 
I played the market a bit tight today. I could of had a great day just by letting my overnight holds run. Then again if the FED announcement was negative I could have been sitting on a loss. I couldn't find any good intraday buying points after the announcement therefore I have nothing on the table. I'll scan some stocks this evening to see if there is any good longer term buying opportunities for tomorrow.

Test Phase 1:

Start Date: June 28, 2012
Account Opening Balance: $80,000.00
Account Goal: $104,000.00


Current Account Balance: $86859.24
Annual % Return: 8.57%

2012-09-13 P/L: $308.18

Overnight Holdings: None:
 
It was another cautious day on the market. I was expecting a pull back today but didn't capitalize on it. Shorted COP (entry price wasn't great) but covered early (would have put me in the black). Some buying opportunities presented themselves at the end of the day so I purchased 400 shares of CHKP at $47.56.
A good portion of the day was spent on trading tool development. I don't mind sharing the info since I'm still in the SIM and it relates to only the setup. See the tool at the bottom.
The 87K level has been kind of my nemesis of late as that I haven't been able to rise above this level (stuck for at least a month). Hopefully on Monday I can pass through this level.

Test Phase 1:

Start Date: June 28, 2012
Account Opening Balance: $80,000.00
Account Goal: $104,000.00


Current Account Balance: $86795.17
Annual % Return: 8.49%

2012-09-14 P/L: - ($64.07)

Overnight Holdings:

CHKP (400) $47.56


Tool:

I was using a separate spread sheet to manage stock information such as earning dates, dividend information, and analyst recommendations. I no longer require the spreadsheet as I have transferred all of this information to a live chart (HUD).
(See Picture)

Explaination:

The first line refers to analyst recommendations.
SB=Strong Buy
B=Buy
H=Hold
UP=Under Perform
S=Sell

The second line refers to current (could be previous) dividend information.
DD=Declaration Date
ED=Ex Date
RD=Record Date
PD=Pay Date
C=Current Amount ($)
P=Previous Amount ($)
(#)=Number of Payments in the Past 12 Months

The third line refers to the earnings date.
E=Earnings date
 

Attachments

My stock setups for today were all long plays. Unfortunately, the market slowly spiraled down today without much volatility. Hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.


Test Phase 1:

Start Date: June 28, 2012
Account Opening Balance: $80,000.00
Account Goal: $104,000.00

Current Account Balance: $86689.10
Annual % Return: 8.36%

2012-09-17 P/L: - ($106.07)

Overnight Holdings:

CHKP (400) $47.56
YUM (400) $66.52


Tool Update:

I added stock daily range and analyst target price.

R=daily range
TP=target price
 
Third day of losses in a row. I'm seeing the 87K level pull away again. It's a bit frustrating. I was expecting a bump up earlier in the day, but it didn't materialize until 2:00PM. Added some extra volume overnight with BA and DVN. Even with the loss I thought I controlled the board quite well today. Trying to get use to having extra volume on the table. Hoping to have some good housing numbers tomorrow. That and a postive market macro to push the stock up.


Test Phase 1:

Start Date: June 28, 2012
Account Opening Balance: $80,000.00
Account Goal: $104,000.00

Current Account Balance: $86110.10
Annual % Return: 7.63%

2012-09-18 P/L: - ($579.00)

Overnight Holdings:

CHKP (400) $47.56
YUM (400) $66.52
BA (400) $70.00
DVN (400) 62.20
 
Another day of losses. Four in a row. Mentally tough to lose so many days in a row. Made some mental errors today. Cut YUM loose a bit to early. Left a lot of profit on the table .60. Had a chance to take a .70 profit on BA near the open. Chose to try and scale in a second set of volume (made a mistake and ended up with three sets (400) . Stock didn't budge much after the pullback. Decided to leave the trade on the table. DVN dropped hard and quick near the open got scared out and ate the losses, though not before adding a second set of volume.

On a plus note I'm still up 7% during this round of testing.
Intraday trades on A and CHKP netted (~.35) per stock. Hopefully tomorrow's a better day.



Test Phase 1:

Start Date: June 28, 2012
Account Opening Balance: $80,000.00
Account Goal: $104,000.00

Current Account Balance: $85622.10
Annual % Return: 7.03%

2012-09-19 P/L: - ($487.90)

Overnight Holdings:

BA (1200) $70.15
CHKP (400) $47.56
 
Slight loss today. Five in a row. Was down $1000.00 early in the day. Dumped 800 of BA at 69.76. Couldn't take the chance for another large pullback tomorrow. No intraday gains.

Still confident in the current trade strategy. Won't deviate. Will have to be patient.

Test Phase 1:

Start Date: June 28, 2012
Account Opening Balance: $80,000.00
Account Goal: $104,000.00

Current Account Balance: $85517.06
Annual % Return: 6.90%

2012-09-20 P/L: - ($105.04)

Overnight Holdings:

BA (400) $70.15
CHKP (400) $47.56
A (400) $39.29
 
Six in a row. Today was a mixture of missed opportunity and critical entry and volume mistakes.

CHKP drove high on the open this morning and came back as quick. Made critical volume entries on the pull back. Loss (.40) intraday. Left .90 on the table.

The pattern for A was similar to CHKP at the open. After the main pullback the stock slowly declined. Loss (.14) intraday. Left .50 on the table.

Another missed opportunity was buying HLF at 46.67 and selling at 46.82. Stock rose to 47.65. Intraday gain of .15. Left .98 on the table.

BA intraday gain .14.

DVN intraday gain of .36.


Most of the trading errors right now are in respect to trying to scale in a second set of volume. One should normally sell at those high's (CHKP & A). The problem with not having a scaling strategy is that if the stock advances further profits are cut short.

Starting Monday when listing longer term overnight holds, intraday gains or losses will be reflected in the prices (effective prices).


Test Phase 1:

Start Date: June 28, 2012
Account Opening Balance: $80,000.00
Account Goal: $104,000.00

Current Account Balance: $85384.06
Annual % Return: 6.73%

2012-09-21 P/L: - ($133.00)

Overnight Holdings:

BA (400) $70.15
CHKP (400) $47.56
A (400) $39.29
DVN (400) $61.03
 
Seven in a row. Another bad day of execution. Normally I would have my charts marked and the game plan prepared in advance. Today's lack of preparation showed in the final results.

The only positive note on the day was another market feed was added to allow for real-time stock qualification. Qualification was performed after hours due to the limited number of real-time data feeds available.

CHKP, A, BA all had execution errors in the fact they had their profits cut short by removing them from the table early. Final results for these stocks;

CHKP
Intraday profit .24
Total -(.04)

A
Intraday profit -(.02)
Total -(.35)

BA
Total -(.42)

DVN headed south for most of the day. Intraday profit -(.30)

Note: Stock commissions are included in profit/loss.


Test Phase 1:

Start Date: June 28, 2012
Account Opening Balance: $80,000.00
Account Goal: $104,000.00

Current Account Balance: $85111.02

Annual % Return: 6.39%

2012-09-24 P/L: - ($273.04)

Overnight Holdings:

DVN (400) $61.33
HLF (800) $46.69
 
Eight in a row. Crushing defeat today. With so many losses in a row one might think that its time to throw in the towel. Sorry, but I have been here many times before. Lots of time to meet that 30% annual target. Quitting is not an option.

If anything this string of losses has made me a better trader. Up to this point I have been able to reach an 8+ % return using low volume and holding very few overnight positions. To seek the higher returns one must know how to take advantage of the margin available (conservatively though). In doing so it is important to condition the mind to accept larger volumes on the table and wider P/L swings that are associated with it.

While the market was beating me down, strategically I was getting stronger. Some of the trading techniques that were being developed and implemented included;

- double volume entry points.
- in trend entry points.
- real-time enhanced stock scanning.
- stop loss and profit run in the area of discipline.

Lots of volume on the table today. Just not in the right direction. Hopefully, I can turn this losing streak around tomorrow and try and finish above the 84K level by the end of the week.


Test Phase 1:

Start Date: June 28, 2012
Account Opening Balance: $80,000.00
Account Goal: $104,000.00

Current Account Balance: $83617.95

Annual % Return: 4.52%

2012-09-24 P/L: - ($1493.07)

Overnight Holdings:

A (800) $36.68
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top