It the collapse of the Afghan government in 11 days defied logic you would be able to pull lots of people who would have said so.
There is no such commentary anywhere that I can find. The closest prediction was 30 days after withdrawal the Afghanistan government would collapse that I saw. And, the consensus being 90 days to a year.
What I will say is everyone saw the government collapsing over time. Not because of lack of air support but because of corruption.
There are quotes from Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden who all believed in the Afghan military's ability to hold the fort. Apparently our intelligence departments are no better than children's guesses.
Although to be fair a U.S. prez is not going to go on TV and claim the afghan army is incompetent and ill equipped to defend themselves and invite all the enemies to swoop in..