No, we are in agreement there. I have always asserted that trading in general is very challenging. Even simply investing is challenging. Getting involved in things like optimizing asymmetric payoffs is something that should not be done by mom and pop types (most of ET). I do lots of these trades and have no desire to discuss them so feel free to discount that how you wish. I do agree that most people should just buy and hold an ETF like SPY and call it a life. They would far outperform most of the junk I see on ET that gets espoused as a trading strategy.
Taleb's barbell strategy
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
No, we are in agreement there. I have always asserted that trading in general is very challenging. Even simply investing is challenging. Getting involved in things like optimizing asymmetric payoffs is something that should not be done by mom and pop types (most of ET). I do lots of these trades and have no desire to discuss them so feel free to discount that how you wish. I do agree that most people should just buy and hold an ETF like SPY and call it a life. They would far outperform most of the junk I see on ET that gets espoused as a trading strategy.
Taleb would have been right if central banks had not taken over. He simply extrapolated another correction after two large correction in a period of 8 years, in 2000 and 2008. Many authors first extrapolate and then they try to justify wishful thinking with convoluted arguments.
Correct me if I am wrong but Taleb had a fund based on his barbell strategy he closed down? How many other bears were driven to full stop and ruin during the last 8 years? If central banks had not stepped in, maybe Taleb would have been the richest trader. But it doesn't work like this, almost never. Maybe the barbell strategy time is now getting closer again.One of the best authors I follow had this excellent article 'Negative Gravity'. Obviously long-term expectation is negative from barbell. But it can peak too high before going negative. You do not have to continue after the peak. Just take the money and run. This is the idea.
Baloney. "assuming you are protected from inflation," is never a valid assumption. Therefore, the rest of it is nonsense. "If pigs could fly, then..." Well, pigs can't fly, so whatever follows is worthless.
And how do you protect yourself from inflation Steve?
Does this man sound like he was long T-Bills with 90% of his networth?
He talks about how he left Lebanon and when the currency went from 2 to the dollar to 1500 or some such. In US, because of Bernanke, he was feeling there was that risk again.
Whatever he was doing pre-crisis is not likely to be what he was doing after the crisis
He talks about how he left Lebanon and when the currency went from 2 to the dollar to 1500 or some such. In US, because of Bernanke, he was feeling there was that risk again.
Whatever he was doing pre-crisis is not likely to be what he was doing after the crisis
You do know he is retired right? He doesn't actually trade anymore. His partner, Mark Spitznagel, manages his money now.
And you know all his money is with Spitznagel how? I doubt it is all with him and I doubt it is/was in T-bills either
Taleb is making more money writing/ selling books, giving speeches than he ever did trading....Read 2rosy's comment on Taleb on page 1 of below thread.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/nassim-taleb-who-got-burried.304287/
Last edited:
Who knows. I don't care. Why would I care? I know he is not trading because he said as much. Why worry about something you have no control of?