Listen Daal, I'm not going to fight you. Just call me a liar and move on. It's in his book word for word but no I don't feel like dragging it out and flipping through pages to find it. It will be much easier to call me a liar and move on and just say I'm making it up. We can move on to our Superbowl picks. What do you think Greenbay/New England?
Taleb's barbell strategy
- Thread starter Daal
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Listen Daal, I'm not going to fight you. Just call me a liar and move on. It's in his book word for word but no I don't feel like dragging it out and flipping through pages to find it. It will be much easier to call me a liar and move on and just say I'm making it up. We can move on to our Superbowl picks. What do you think Greenbay/New England?
Hold on, man... Why you getting all excited about this? I am only saying that NNT's so-called strategy is half-baked. Heck, its various vague formulations don't even offer any interesting insights. Just my opinion, so feel free to disagree.
Yes, I manage money for a living. And I don't do drawdowns, Mav, let alone drawdowns of the magnitude you describe. In fact, I would consider a 50% drawdown unprofessional. If something like that happens to me, I expect that I will resign and will need to think carefully about whether I am in the right job.
New England man. Screw the cheese. (Sorry, off-topic).
Thank you for proving my point. You obviously take risk for a living as do I. Now theoretically you "could" have a drawdown of some magnitude but you would describe it as something that is unlikely as would I. But why are you so damn quick to point out every damn flaw in how a simple strategy can fall apart when you know damn well that in the world of finance there are guarantees of nothing except death and taxes. Of course a meteor could hit the earth. Of course one could get killed on inflation. Of course there are risks in the markets. Yet in your own little world there is no possibility of this. But in everyone else's world you find every flaw. Show me your trading book Marty and I'll point out every thing can go wrong as well no matter how unlikely it is to happen. Mirrors are used for reflection Marty, not admiration.
I'll take the other side of that. Rodgers is on a mission.
I do love his weird relaxed glare through his eyes, like he knows exactly how he is going to kill you, but will be calm about it.
Erm, a one-off catastrophic event, I agree, would not constitute a valid reason to cast doubt on the viability of a particular strategy. However, there's a difference between that and something which has persisted for well-nigh 10 years. As to admiring yourself in the mirror, I daresay nobody does as much of that as NNT. Certainly not me.
At any rate, we don't have to argue about this. I don't find NNT remotely interesting and/or insightful, while you do. Let's just leave it at that.
I don't agree with cash option at all, bank interest seldom more than inflation?
http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2013/01/what-will-100-be-worth-in-20xx-future.html
If you have patience, after huge decline, buy a core of companies that produce everyday consumer products that pay dividends greater than bank, for me this is a safe haven. I am of conservative nature and all investments are risky. Learn to hedge, any timeframe except for most day trading, should hedge as way to minimize possible loses, reducing what you can possibly lose to me leaves more profit overall, just makes more sense to me. And if you can't hedge, then pass on it works for me.
http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2013/01/what-will-100-be-worth-in-20xx-future.html
If you have patience, after huge decline, buy a core of companies that produce everyday consumer products that pay dividends greater than bank, for me this is a safe haven. I am of conservative nature and all investments are risky. Learn to hedge, any timeframe except for most day trading, should hedge as way to minimize possible loses, reducing what you can possibly lose to me leaves more profit overall, just makes more sense to me. And if you can't hedge, then pass on it works for me.
I wish I one day could have a conversation with you where you leave out your personal feelings about someone and focus instead on solely the topic at hand. You must be the only man in the world Marty that doesn't lose money. Even Jim Simons has drawdowns. We'll leave it at that. Pride goes before the fall.
What Ray Dalio is saying is the essence of what makes derivative trading so darn appealing - many of us at any time only have a small percentage (<10-20%) of our capital in the market at a given time which gives us incredible upside while still having plenty of liquid capital - this is how it is done to have strong risk mgmt to stay far away from the road to ruin.
This is where new traders get into so much trouble - they typically leverage most or all of their capital - that is the road to ruin he is talking about.
This is where new traders get into so much trouble - they typically leverage most or all of their capital - that is the road to ruin he is talking about.