Taking 76K to 500K by Year End

Status
Not open for further replies.
Weekly Update for week 34 ended 10/19/2007

Horrible week, down 37.7K, marked by deep losses chasing momentum using options. Lost 76K through this strategy (calls on momentum up moves) this week. Now I need to program it into my monitor NEVER to allow call options on a momentum up move!!!! The losses are just not worth the occasional continued upmoves that come along. Really sad about this.

On Monday, it was DRYS (OCT 125 CALL) bought when the momentum was reaching its climax. Lost 10K. On Wednesday, it was BIDU up move after the sell-offs, bought into it, only to witness the violent downmove in the market in the afternoon. Did not have the stomach to endure till the close of market when I could have recovered a bit: lost 22K. Finally rushed to buy GOOG calls after what looked like good earnings and upgrades on Friday, losing 21K. Naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa...

Rescued a little by trades in SNDK on Friday.

Really need to focus on a core set of option and stock strategies that are making me money, instead of spreading myself too thin. The divergence between expected and target is now so much it is unrealistic to aim for the original target. However, I am not revising it. Will just keep the journal on while defining and refining my profitable strategies. Hopefully by year-end I will have formulated a core set of strategies that will be adhered to steadfastly next year using a combination of manual and automated checks.


Code: 
Balance B/F:                   		163,661
Gain for the week 		        -37,767
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		125,894
Number of Trades	            	 30
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	 15

Since Inception of Thread   2/25/2007 - 10/19/2007

Balance B/F:                   		 76,636
Net Gain (Less Margin Interest)		110,258
Cash Withdrawal		       		-61,000
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		125,894 (Adjusted balance before withdrawals is 186,894, up 144% )
Number of Trades	           	 911
Number of Profitable Trades        	 514

Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 
			       326,479

Status:			       Behind Target		(Based on adjusted balance before withdrawals)

Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week

TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAINS/LOSS	TYPE

SWFVI	2007-10-19-13-30-23	2007-10-19-15-17-45	20000	21000		40000		18669		SNDK OCT 45 PUT
ERIC	2007-10-16-08-35-47	2007-10-16-10-16-45	4000	118259		125756		7475		LONG
SNDK	2007-10-19-08-49-35	2007-10-19-09-42-27	3000	136065		143400		7313		SHORT
------------------------------------------------------------------------
DQRJU	2007-10-15-10-17-53	2007-10-15-14-10-24	5000	35949		25750		-10304		DRYS OCT 125 CALL
GOOJJ	2007-10-19-09-31-04	2007-10-19-10-19-43	4000	30380		9200		-21270		GOOG OCT 650 CALL
BDUJC	2007-10-17-09-36-47	2007-10-17-14-04-03	5000	47000		25070		-22036		BIDU OCT 320 CALL
							

                                        (Before Interest and Other charges)
                                        TRANSACTIONS ANALYSIS FROM 2007-02-25 TO 2007-10-20

                             Current Week                                    |	Since Inception of Thread
                                                                             |                                           
                Method          Gains/Loss       No Of          Profitable   |  Gains/Loss       No Of       Profitable  
                                                Trades              Trades   |                  Trades           Trades  
Automated       AutoTrade1               0           0                   0   |        5548         207              115  
                AutoTrade2               0           0                   0   |        3372          12                8  
                AutoTrade3               0           0                   0   |       -4523           3                0  
                AutoTrade4               0           0                   0   |      -14537           2                0  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Total Automated                          0           0                   0   |      -10140         224              123  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Discretionary   Long                  8002           9                   6   |      -44317         246              145  
                Short                10304          11                   6   |      -22308         237              137  
                Options(long)       -55983          10                   3   |      187981         204              109  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Total Discretionary                 -37677          30                  15   |      121357         687              391  
                                ===========     ========        ============ |  ===========     ======       ============
Net Totals                          -37677          30                  15   |      111217         911              514  
                                ===========     ========        ============ |  ===========     ======       ============
 

Attachments

Market sucks. I have been warning of a double top ever since the market came back under 14,000. I think we are going to test August lows first, then ultimately 10,000 in 2008.
 
Sorry to hear of the bad week.

Are you doing things radically different from when you were smashing it out the park? I'd say maybe look back to what was working unless the market has shifted bad enough to negate your strategy.
 
Neke,

Whenever I have had bad streaks like this it is because I have deviated from a system.. Can you describe your system of selecting trades? You know.. MACD turning up.. 10 period ema reversal.. something.. trading on hunches and gut doesn't work consistently.. To me the best systems trade rarely. There is so much noise in the day to day that for a swing trader, I am close to swearing off the intraday quotes.. There has to be a method to the madness or there will be madness... in your head.
 
Quote from mcichocki:

Sorry to hear of the bad week.

Are you doing things radically different from when you were smashing it out the park? I'd say maybe look back to what was working unless the market has shifted bad enough to negate your strategy.
More...

Quote from retire45:

Neke,

Whenever I have had bad streaks like this it is because I have deviated from a system.. Can you describe your system of selecting trades? You know.. MACD turning up.. 10 period ema reversal.. something.. trading on hunches and gut doesn't work consistently.. To me the best systems trade rarely. There is so much noise in the day to day that for a swing trader, I am close to swearing off the intraday quotes.. There has to be a method to the madness or there will be madness... in your head.
More...

Without having to disclose specifics, my best profitable strategies are contrarian in nature. The right set up has not happened much in the past weeks as the market seemed to move only one way. Hopefully with the return of volatility, and more normal range markets, I could start picking good set-ups once more. The hardest part is having the patience to avoid incurring deep losses in the period between the right set-ups.
 
Quote from neke:

Without having to disclose specifics, my best profitable strategies are contrarian in nature. The right set up has not happened much in the past weeks as the market seemed to move only one way. Hopefully with the return of volatility, and more normal range markets, I could start picking good set-ups once more. The hardest part is having the patience to avoid incurring deep losses in the period between the right set-ups.
More...

Couldn't be more correct IMHO.

Something that really stands in the way of this is having a monetary goal.
 
Neke,

A system that handles earnings reactions? Fully agree about what happens when there are no great setups... you feel you account is going nowhere.. so you "find" trades. This IS the BIGGEST achiles heel of mine.. Will haunt me forever... AKA a lack of discipline. Humbling but, that is what it is..

I have a monthly return goal and I have to admit, it causes emotions that get in the way of trading.. losses are taken much more seriously and gains are over-celebrated... FOCUS on the trade.. FOCUS on the trade! The ideal condition is being aware of your account balance once a month only.. All you need to know are the percentages per trade..
 
i had a day to match your week today (on now much smaller accounts). Dumb me .. buying 'support' this entire fall this week with oct index options.

Who would've thought we'd blow thru 1505 from 1585 in all of 5 days after the FOMC did their thing.
 
Oh yeah.. EVERY long must be a pathological dip buyer .. then markets head down.. works like a charm. Good luck figuring out how long this may last.. heck I only partially followed my DOW 13,950 post.. <g>
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top