Taking 76K to 500K by Year End

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Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Just a thought about averaging down on position that is already losing $.

To make an averaging down model works, it MUST average up on winning positions too. That will balance out the sizing issue for the winning positions.

Absolute stop on disaster scenerio (i.e just like what another reply says - on strong trend day, you will become roadkill) must be there too.

If the system is well designed, you can expect extremely high winning % with positive returns.

But then, do expect extremely bad drawdown when you are on the wrong side of a strong trend day.
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Well said about doubling up when winning to balance out the potential negative from doubling down. In reality I have no urge to average up, realising I could be jeopardising my gain, while there is the intense urge to average on losers and eliminate the loss.

In any case, I am committed to eliminating all types of averaging. I should determine the ideal size upfront and stick with it, and be graceful in accepting a loss.
 
Quote from neke:

Wherever did I pick up this deadly habit? Shorted 10000 shares of POZN pre-market at 11.20. Added a further 10000 shares an hour later, and again another 5000 shares as the stock went up against me, for a total exposure of about $300K (2 X balance at the time). Watched helplessly as the stock climbed higher and higher. Covered part at EOD, and part the following monday for a total loss of 33K. =

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Neke,
just wonder what kind fills you get for such large order size of 10,000 shares??? From your preveious posts you place mostly LIMIT orders...so wonder if you get filled at once..given volume is up or is kinda sprerad out and gets fill speadically? Thanks.
 
Quote from jimclark:

Neke,
just wonder what kind fills you get for such large order size of 10,000 shares??? From your preveious posts you place mostly LIMIT orders...so wonder if you get filled at once..given volume is up or is kinda sprerad out and gets fill speadically? Thanks.
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For that particular trade, it was awful. You would think, that with a share volume of 7million shares for the day, it would be easy getting out of 25000 shares. I started placing a limit order to get out when the stock was at 12.30. I would place a cover above the asking price, by say 2 cents, but the whole stock would jump up, and not even one share would execute. I eventually followed it all the way to 12.60 when I was able to get out. Looked like a conspiracy between my broker and the market.
 
neke.................bro, you're still up for the year, regroup, rethink your strategies, keep posting your results as well as your thought processes. .... What you're doing is a mini education for everyone who reads this thread...... What to do, as well as what not to do regarding trading. And I hope you are learning, also, from reviewing your trades.
 
Weekly Update for week 30 ended 09/21/2007

Another week to look beyond. Almost looks like a predictable pattern these days. At least I could say it would have been an OK week without that thing called BIDU. I seemed obsessed with calling a top on that stock. Tried a little and failed on the 17th. Tried again on 18th and failed, then again on 19th and failed, and once again on 21st and failed. Altogether lost 16K in stock and options trying to call a top on BIDU. I need to drill it into my head that the market is in a bull phase right now, and should have to post this reminder on my desk: DONT SHORT CHINA!

The mode right now has switched from aggressiveness to conservatisim. It has been a horrible drawdown. Preservation of capital is very key right now. I will hate to see that balance go below 6 digits. The good times will still come, but I need to weather this stormy phase gracefully.


Code: 
Balance B/F:                   		113,198
Loss for the week 		         -9,614
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		103,584
Number of Trades	            	 37
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	 17

Since Inception of Thread   2/25/2007 - 09/21/2007

Balance B/F:                   		 76,636
Net Gain (Less Margin Interest)		 77,948
Cash Withdrawal		       		-51,000
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		103,584	(Adjusted balance before withdrawals is 154584, up 102% )
Number of Trades	           	 812
Number of Profitable Trades        	 462

Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 
			       275,300

Status:			       Behind Target		(Based on adjusted balance before withdrawals)

Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week

TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAINS/LOSS	TYPE

LESIL	2007-09-18-13-09-15	2007-09-18-14-33-59	8000	14400		20300		5750		OPTION
BCRX	2007-09-20-08-26-32	2007-09-20-09-54-26	10000	75907		81300		5372		LONG
------------------------------------------------------------
BDUUW	2007-09-19-09-37-38	2007-09-20-09-45-18	3000	13800		10170		-3705		BIDU SEP 270 PUT
BDUUV	2007-09-18-14-16-40	2007-09-18-15-52-24	1800	12420		6300		-6167		BIDU SEP 260 PUT

							

                                        (Before Interest and Other charges)
                                        TRANSACTIONS ANALYSIS FROM 2007-02-25 TO 2007-09-22

                             Current Week                                    |	Since Inception of Thread
                                                                             |                                           
                Method          Gains/Loss       No Of          Profitable   |  Gains/Loss       No Of       Profitable  
                                                Trades              Trades   |                  Trades           Trades  
Automated       AutoTrade1           -1605          10                   5   |        5072         204              113  
                AutoTrade2               0           0                   0   |        3372          12                8  
                AutoTrade3               0           0                   0   |       -4523           3                0  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Total Automated                      -1605          10                   5   |        3921         219              121  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Discretionary   Long                  4569           7                   4   |      -43407         212              124  
                Short                  934          11                   6   |      -49782         211              123  
                Options(long)       -13563           9                   2   |      168237         170               94  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Total Discretionary                  -8060          27                  12   |       75047         593              341  
                                ===========     ========        ============ |  ===========     ======       ============
Net Totals                           -9665          37                  17   |       78969         812              462  
                                ===========     ========        ============ |  ===========     ======       ============
 

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you've gone cold a little bit. why don't you try finding multiple positions to trade simultaneously so you aren't so dependant one...

ie buy your bidu puts, buy PCU calls

find stuff that isn't too correlated ...

i know the feeling of everything i touch turning to shit... not good. it'll come back for you.. just don't push it. reduce your size. Go to 1 options contract per item if thats what it takes to get your confidence back and stabilize your account, and get you back to NOT trying to impose your own personal issues on a trend.

Its hard to bring down the size.

BTW, my FXI and BIDU puts failed this week as well. OTOH, I was loaded up to the gil with other calls, bond puts, etc.. too --- so it all balances out and smooths things down.
 
Neke,

No one said that trading, let alone options trading is a walk in the park. If it was, everyone would be doing it. I have been in your shoes more than once, so I can relate to how you feel about the current drawdown. However, the good news is that you're making higher lows and that should be good enough to keep you focused and perhaps revisit the old highs in the next few months. Best of Luck.

T.K.
 
Neke, For all that its worth: Great, great thread... been reading if from the very beginning. Really appreciate your honesty - there's a lot to be learned from this open book journal. Keep it up..... and good luck man.
 
Weekly Update for week 31 ended 09/28/2007

A good week to end the stream of losing weeks. Nothing remarkable except the china play mentioned below. Was very conservative in my use of leverage, and was keen to avoid taking too many trades: of course when the trading day starts, such resolve is often tossed away.

I believe everyone is aware of the phenomenon taking place in Chinese stocks. We could list all the stocks that had terrific moves: CPSL, CBAK, CSUN, JRJC, KONG. It is apparent that the Chinese market may be reaching an interim top. I played only one of the momentum: bought 5000 shares of KONG on Thursday @ 6.77, and held on to the following morning pre-market, when I exited at 9.13 for a handsome 11K gain. Wanted to immediately go short, but my broker would not allow a short sale. When the trading day started, checked the OCT 7.50 puts it was bid 1.15 ask 1.25 (even though the stock price was about 8.20). It was obvious the market-maker has set up the premium for a rip-off. So I did not buy. I watched as that stock close the day at 6.70, while the option went to only 1.35 bid. So there was an intra-day 20% move in the stock, with many weeks still left to expiration, that could not budge the option premium by 10%. What a set-up! It is good I normally turn away from such.

Looking forward to next week. I hope there could be some action, and profitable opportunities.

Code: 
Balance B/F:                   		103,584
Gain for the week 		         18,105
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		121,689
Number of Trades	            	 20
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	 11

Since Inception of Thread   2/25/2007 - 09/28/2007

Balance B/F:                   		 76,636
Net Gain (Less Margin Interest)		 96,053
Cash Withdrawal		       		-51,000
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		121,689 (Adjusted balance before withdrawals is 172689, up 125% )
Number of Trades	           	 832
Number of Profitable Trades        	 473

Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 
			       287,288

Status:			       Behind Target		(Based on adjusted balance before withdrawals)

Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week

TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAINS/LOSS	TYPE

KONG	2007-09-27-11-17-30	2007-09-28-08-10-29	5000	33871		45620		11728		LONG
BDUJY	2007-09-21-16-00-03	2007-09-24-09-41-34	1000	18000		23100		5065		BIDU OCT 290 CALL
---------------------------------------------------------
BDUJZ	2007-09-25-13-12-15	2007-09-25-15-48-13	700	16030		14770		-1291		BIDU OCT 300 CALL
TGTVZ	2007-09-25-09-58-09	2007-09-25-13-06-00	5000	13500		12000		-1595		TGT OCT 62.5 PUT

							

                                        (Before Interest and Other charges)
                                        TRANSACTIONS ANALYSIS FROM 2007-02-25 TO 2007-09-29

                             Current Week                                    |	Since Inception of Thread
                                                                             |                                           
                Method          Gains/Loss       No Of          Profitable   |  Gains/Loss       No Of       Profitable  
                                                Trades              Trades   |                  Trades           Trades  
Automated       AutoTrade1             475           3                   2   |        5548         207              115  
                AutoTrade2               0           0                   0   |        3372          12                8  
                AutoTrade3               0           0                   0   |       -4523           3                0  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Total Automated                        475           3                   2   |        4397         222              123  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Discretionary   Long                 14489           7                   5   |      -28918         219              129  
                Short                 -605           5                   2   |      -50388         216              125  
                Options(long)         3774           5                   2   |      172011         175               96  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Total Discretionary                  17658          17                   9   |       92706         610              350  
                                ===========     ========        ============ |  ===========     ======       ============
Net Totals                           18134          20                  11   |       97102         832              473  
                                ===========     ========        ============ |  ===========     ======       ============
 

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Quote from damnit:

Nice trade on KONG. I think you have learned from your mistakes.
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He learns up until he makes bank than forgets. Just like me. :p Keep it up man. But why are you shooting for only 500k? Up that to seven figures.
 
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