Taking 76K to 500K by Year End

midlifeguy · Sep 6, 2007

No offense, but I am rooting Neke on. I will be the first to say that he needs to take risks to go from 76k to 500k in one year but I would hate to see him lose it all.

I have been around long enough and seen enough to know it can happen. Sound money management is
key to success.

Anyways, where are all the bashers on PTT and RICK now?

Quote from mde2004:

Hey tough guy, Take your $50 record profit and move out of your parent's basement. How dare you mock his trading.

neke · Sep 7, 2007

Weekly Update for week 28 ended 09/07/2007

It was a slow week. Up a paltry 3.3K - Definitely better than last week, and even better than my weekly earnings from regular employment: Sad for me to realise I am earning that low! Traded light for much of the week, except Friday where I am still carrying forward a loss to deal with next week. withdrew 10K for the month ended 31st August.

Code:

Balance B/F:                   		151,366
Gain for the week 		          3,357
Withdrawal				-10,000
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		144,723
Number of Trades	            	 24
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	 13

Since Inception of Thread   2/25/2007 - 09/07/2007

Balance B/F:                   		 76,636
Net Gain (Less Margin Interest)		119,087
Cash Withdrawal		       		-51,000
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		144,723	(Adjusted balance before withdrawals is 195723, up 155% )
Number of Trades	           	 743
Number of Profitable Trades        	 427

Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 
			       252,802
Status:			       Behind Target		(Based on adjusted balance before withdrawals)

Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week

TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAINS/LOSS	TYPE

SLXP	2007-09-05-09-44-44	2007-09-05-10-10-20	10000	132518		140000		7460		LONG
FNSR	2007-09-05-10-03-29	2007-09-05-15-56-57	20000	59000		62800		3779		SHORT
---------------------------------------
SLXP	2007-09-05-08-15-44	2007-09-05-09-44-44	10000	131955		126572		-5425		SHORT
SLXP	2007-09-05-10-58-24	2007-09-05-15-33-29	10000	136927		130902		-6057		LONG

							

                                        (Before Interest and Other charges)
                                        TRANSACTIONS ANALYSIS FROM 2007-02-25 TO 2007-09-08

                             Current Week                                    |	Since Inception of Thread
                                                                             |                                           
                Method          Gains/Loss       No Of          Profitable   |  Gains/Loss       No Of       Profitable  
                                                Trades              Trades   |                  Trades           Trades  
Automated       AutoTrade1             170           6                   3   |        6820         185              102  
                AutoTrade2               0           0                   0   |        3372          12                8  
                AutoTrade3               0           0                   0   |       -4523           3                0  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Total Automated                        170           6                   3   |        5669         200              110  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Discretionary   Long                  6204          10                   6   |      -39058         199              119  
                Short                -4006           6                   3   |      -28775         189              110  
                Options(long)          989           2                   1   |      182323         155               88  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Total Discretionary                   3187          18                  10   |      114490         543              317  
                                ===========     ========        ============ |  ===========     ======       ============
Net Totals                            3357          24                  13   |      120159         743              427  
                                ===========     ========        ============ |  ===========     ======       ============

jimclark · Sep 8, 2007

Quote from neke:

Weekly Update for week 28 ended 09/07/2007

It was a slow week. Up a paltry 3.3K - Definitely better than last week, and even better than my weekly earnings from regular employment: Sad for me to realise I am earning that low! Traded light for much of the week, except Friday where I am still carrying forward a loss to deal with next week. withdrew 10K for the month ended 31st August.

Code:

Balance B/F: 151,366 Gain for the week 3,357 Withdrawal -10,000 ------------------------------------------------ Balance C/F: 144,723 Number of Trades 24 Number of Profitable Trades 13 Since Inception of Thread 2/25/2007 - 09/07/2007 Balance B/F: 76,636 Net Gain (Less Margin Interest) 119,087 Cash Withdrawal -51,000 ------------------------------------------------ Balance C/F: 144,723 (Adjusted balance before withdrawals is 195723, up 155% ) Number of Trades 743 Number of Profitable Trades 427 Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 252,802 Status: Behind Target (Based on adjusted balance before withdrawals) Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAINS/LOSS TYPE SLXP 2007-09-05-09-44-44 2007-09-05-10-10-20 10000 132518 140000 7460 LONG FNSR 2007-09-05-10-03-29 2007-09-05-15-56-57 20000 59000 62800 3779 SHORT --------------------------------------- SLXP 2007-09-05-08-15-44 2007-09-05-09-44-44 10000 131955 126572 -5425 SHORT SLXP 2007-09-05-10-58-24 2007-09-05-15-33-29 10000 136927 130902 -6057 LONG (Before Interest and Other charges) TRANSACTIONS ANALYSIS FROM 2007-02-25 TO 2007-09-08 Current Week | Since Inception of Thread | Method Gains/Loss No Of Profitable | Gains/Loss No Of Profitable Trades Trades | Trades Trades Automated AutoTrade1 170 6 3 | 6820 185 102 AutoTrade2 0 0 0 | 3372 12 8 AutoTrade3 0 0 0 | -4523 3 0 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Total Automated 170 6 3 | 5669 200 110 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Discretionary Long 6204 10 6 | -39058 199 119 Short -4006 6 3 | -28775 189 110 Options(long) 989 2 1 | 182323 155 88 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Total Discretionary 3187 18 10 | 114490 543 317 =========== ======== ============ | =========== ====== ============ Net Totals 3357 24 13 | 120159 743 427 =========== ======== ============ | =========== ====== ============

Obvously I missed reading your past or latest posts but based on your equity curv you dipped over 100K...was wondering if it's a loss or you just money off the table?

Good luck man, you doing a great job.

neke · Sep 14, 2007

Weekly Update for week 29 ended 09/14/2007

The sad event reported this week actually happened for the most part on Friday last week. Once again, I did what had been my killer thus far: averaging into a loser. Wherever did I pick up this deadly habit? Shorted 10000 shares of POZN pre-market at 11.20. Added a further 10000 shares an hour later, and again another 5000 shares as the stock went up against me, for a total exposure of about $300K (2 X balance at the time). Watched helplessly as the stock climbed higher and higher. Covered part at EOD, and part the following monday for a total loss of 33K. Well, why did my positions monitor not close the excess leverage? I was working from home that day - what a horrible decision, I should have gone to work. So I unplugged the internet cable from my computer that ran the program to use for my office VPN connection, effectively disabling the program. Sad to see the curve come down this low.

Separating the strategy formulation/market calls from actual trading is what I have committed to doing. Right now my program to do the trading is almost at a point for deployment. I still need another week of testing before making it go live. With that in place, hopefully, decisions about sizing, avoiding averaging in, and stop loss mechanism will be done by
the program and not me: I have shown how poor I am at obeying these rules inspite of many ugly incidents.

Code:

Balance B/F:                   		144,723
Loss for the week 		        -31,525
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		113,198
Number of Trades	            	 32
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	 18

Since Inception of Thread   2/25/2007 - 09/14/2007

Balance B/F:                   		 76,636
Net Gain (Less Margin Interest)		 87,562
Cash Withdrawal		       		-51,000
------------------------------------------------
Balance C/F:                   		113,198	(Adjusted balance before withdrawals is 164198, up 114% )
Number of Trades	           	 775
Number of Profitable Trades        	 445

Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 
			       263,811
Status:			       Behind Target		(Based on adjusted balance before withdrawals)

Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week

TICKER	ENTRY DATE/TIME		EXIT DATE/TIME		QTY	PURCHASE AMT	SOLD AMT	GAINS/LOSS	TYPE

CDMIB	2007-09-10-12-05-29	2007-09-11-09-49-50	3000	14400		20100		5635		OPTION (CMI SEP 110 CALL)
PUZIP	2007-09-07-10-14-46	2007-09-11-15-35-47	7500	17250		21625		4212		OPTION (PCLN SEP 80 CALL)
-----------------------------------
QHBIA	2007-09-12-10-07-57	2007-09-12-15-29-06	3000	16000		8590		-7505		OPTION (FSLR SEP 105 CALL)
POZN	2007-09-07-08-08-48	2007-09-10-10-52-41	25000	313941		280665		-33361		SHORT

							

                                        (Before Interest and Other charges)
                                       TRANSACTIONS ANALYSIS FROM 2007-02-25 TO 2007-09-15

                             Current Week                                    |	Since Inception of Thread
                                                                             |                                           
                Method          Gains/Loss       No Of          Profitable   |  Gains/Loss       No Of       Profitable  
                                                Trades              Trades   |                  Trades           Trades  
Automated       AutoTrade1            -143           9                   6   |        6677         194              108  
                AutoTrade2               0           0                   0   |        3372          12                8  
                AutoTrade3               0           0                   0   |       -4523           3                0  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Total Automated                       -143           9                   6   |        5526         209              116  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Discretionary   Long                 -8919           6                   1   |      -47976         205              120  
                Short               -21941          11                   7   |      -50716         200              117  
                Options(long)         -523           6                   4   |      181800         161               92  
                                -----------     --------        ------------ |  -----------     ------       ------------
Total Discretionary                 -31383          23                  12   |       83107         566              329  
                                ===========     ========        ============ |  ===========     ======       ============
Net Totals                          -31525          32                  18   |       88633         775              445  
                                ===========     ========        ============ |  ===========     ======       ============

cashmoney69 · Sep 14, 2007

do you have a plan C if the program doesn't pan out?..i guess you know goldman lost 30% of thir fund because of their automated program.

scriabinop23 · Sep 14, 2007

Takes balls to post this every week - especially since it hasn't been a good run lately. For that kudos...

But... to state the obvious.

Avging losers and not setting stops just doesn't work in the *long* run. I too know this from losses and experience.

Why don't you systematically decide your max position size (relative to stock volatility) and stops before you enter the trade and stick to it? I'm working on doing this (and not breaking the discipline) and am having better success.

you said yourself that position sizing is key to your system. it looks like you broke your own rules. maybe you need a straight jacket after you enter the trade to not break the rules.

yacht4u · Sep 14, 2007

Dude
YOur money management sounds terrible... the idea in trading is to preserve capital... you started with 76K...if you follow the 5% rule it means you will never take a loss of more then 5% of your trading capital in any one trade...sooo ..

If you have 76K in your trading account, proper money management dictates that you will never take a loss of more then 5%..or 3800 bucks on any one trade.

You use the 5% rule to determine how many shares you will commit to a position...

If you are buying a 20 buck stock and your stop is 2 points away from your entry, then it calculates to the max size of your trade can only be 2000 shares of a 20 buck stock.

If your stop is 2.00( roughly (10% stop loss) away from your entry and it gets hit, then it means you will lose 4K ( slightly over 3800 or 5% of your trading capital) on that trade.....In your posts, you talk about taking 20K hits...your risk management is really poor buddy. You will not survive over the long haul committing that amount of capital to any one trade..

Believe me, I know what I am talking about. I have been trading many years and have been down this road before... take some friendly advice and ease up. dont be in such a hurry. lower your risk / trade. If you do, you will still be in the game 10 years from now. If you don't well unless you are incredibly lucky, we wont be hearing from you 2 years from now.

Just my 5% worth.. just my opinion and everybody has one..take it or leave it in the spirit it is given..
The Gibbster.

neke · Sep 14, 2007

Quote from scriabinop23:

Takes balls to post this every week - especially since it hasn't been a good run lately. For that kudos...

But... to state the obvious.

Avging losers and not setting stops just doesn't work in the *long* run. I too know this from losses and experience.

Why don't you systematically decide your max position size (relative to stock volatility) and stops before you enter the trade and stick to it? I'm working on doing this (and not breaking the discipline) and am having better success.

you said yourself that position sizing is key to your system. it looks like you broke your own rules. maybe you need a straight jacket after you enter the trade to not break the rules.

That is exactly what my system is meant to accomplish. I will let the program determine the size based on stocks volatility (at this time I shall use a simple % change over prior day to determine exposure), and the program shall watch the stock once position is initiated, determine the stop price and time (I use timed stops mostly to avoid knee-jerk shake outs).

So basically when I want to place a trade, I have to route the request thru my system (basically say BUY AAPL for a day-trade at limit 137 and sell at 139) and the program will do the rest (qty, stop price and times, final closing of the position etc). If it detects any position taken without routing through it, the position will be closed immediately. This is my solution to my inability to do these myself.

retire45 · Sep 14, 2007

Neke,

At this point I don't care what any here will say about raining on your parade.. I have had my demons... Why were you shorting pre-market... When was the last time you saw a gap and crap? Markets lately gap and hold.. AND the daytrading mentality I mentioned on a thread recently.. I am sure you've looked at POZN lately.. I have had some bad trades I stuck out and became winners.. Also the "Forest for the Trees" mentality of daytrading.. Look at a weekly of POZN.. High 13's VERY heavy resistance, especially after expending so much energy in a 30% one day run..

You are a grown up but I am mad at you and perplexed... Gambling for sure and maybe your goal is causing it but I doubt it.. It is just you and you've got to work on your head! Makes me MAD because I see setups all the time that are low risk i.e.... Divide your equity in 5 parts and that's all a trade can get!.. Unless you "fear" you can't find 5 good trades at a time? 5 Trades INCREASE your chances of hitting a winner.. then weed the bad ones and keep the winners.. The money management thing is bad enough but it is possibe to get away with little money management if you enter at low Risk levels.. Better yet.. Pick a stock like RIMM or AAPL for example and focus on it ONLY.. I have found the smaller my trade list the better I do...

Very disturbing to see that POZN trade... you deserve the result and the scolding here!! It will help you long term.. a 100% return a year for 5 years is a fortune... remember that.

neke · Sep 14, 2007

Quote from retire45:

Neke,

At this point I don't care what any here will say about raining on your parade.. I have had my demons... Why were you shorting pre-market... When was the last time you saw a gap and crap? Markets lately gap and hold.. AND the daytrading mentality I mentioned on a thread recently.. I am sure you've looked at POZN lately.. I have had some bad trades I stuck out and became winners.. Also the "Forest for the Trees" mentality of daytrading.. Look at a weekly of POZN.. High 13's VERY heavy resistance, especially after expending so much energy in a 30% one day run..

You are a grown up but I am mad at you and perplexed... Gambling for sure and maybe your goal is causing it but I doubt it.. It is just you and you've got to work on your head! Makes me MAD because I see setups all the time that are low risk i.e.... Divide your equity in 5 parts and that's all a trade can get!.. Unless you "fear" you can't find 5 good trades at a time? 5 Trades INCREASE your chances of hitting a winner.. then weed the bad ones and keep the winners.. The money management thing is bad enough but it is possibe to get away with little money management if you enter at low Risk levels.. Better yet.. Pick a stock like RIMM or AAPL for example and focus on it ONLY.. I have found the smaller my trade list the better I do...

Very disturbing to see that POZN trade... you deserve the result and the scolding here!! It will help you long term.. a 100% return a year for 5 years is a fortune... remember that.

I think the market had me cornered. See the price of the same stock now (11.54, I covered at 12.60). If I had the guts to stay till now, the loss would be mininal. Of course I wont stay that long -- certainly not at that leverage. Thanks. Accepted my fault, and that's why I am working on it.

Taking 76K to 500K by Year End

midlifeguy

neke

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