Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009
- Thread starter neke
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Weekly Update for week 18/50 ended 05/15/2009
Another sad week, down 58K. Lost almost the entire gains for last week. Seems its going to be a long dark night to recovery.
Had 13 trades of 20 profitable, but none worthy of talking about. The size of the losers dwarfs that of the gainers. Had the first set-back buying CTRP after their earnings. That stock has a poor history of holding on to gains after earnings, but I ignored that to my detriment. The route was completed on Thursday on CME: Was bearish on the stock and options and averaged in until I could do no more. It wasn't a surprise I capitulated at the worst levels, losing a total 46K. Had I held till EOD, I would have been profitable, but this happens when one takes a risk well above his tolerance limits: found a clever way to undermine my system checks (that closes positions averaged in).
Now I need to do a wholistic assessment of why I cannot keep to well-laid rules. It's almost instinctive to average into losses, but I practically never average into gainers. Result is my losing trades get so monumental compared to my winners. Almost tempted to now size-up upfront so there will be no buying power to average in: at least this way the winners could also be huge, even if the losers are as well: only I am afraid what the draw-down might become.
Another sad week, down 58K. Lost almost the entire gains for last week. Seems its going to be a long dark night to recovery.
Had 13 trades of 20 profitable, but none worthy of talking about. The size of the losers dwarfs that of the gainers. Had the first set-back buying CTRP after their earnings. That stock has a poor history of holding on to gains after earnings, but I ignored that to my detriment. The route was completed on Thursday on CME: Was bearish on the stock and options and averaged in until I could do no more. It wasn't a surprise I capitulated at the worst levels, losing a total 46K. Had I held till EOD, I would have been profitable, but this happens when one takes a risk well above his tolerance limits: found a clever way to undermine my system checks (that closes positions averaged in).
Now I need to do a wholistic assessment of why I cannot keep to well-laid rules. It's almost instinctive to average into losses, but I practically never average into gainers. Result is my losing trades get so monumental compared to my winners. Almost tempted to now size-up upfront so there will be no buying power to average in: at least this way the winners could also be huge, even if the losers are as well: only I am afraid what the draw-down might become.
Code:
Opening Balance: 327,899
Net loss for the week -57,682
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Net Balance: 270,217
Number of Trades 20
Number of Profitable Trades 13
Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 05/15/2009
Opening Balance: 320,064
Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -49,847 (Down 15.6%)
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Net Balance 270,217
Number of Trades 446
Number of Profitable Trades 281
Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week
TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE
ANF 2009-05-15-09-30-52 2009-05-15-10-43-57 33950 894987 898010 2917 LONG
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CTRP 2009-05-12-09-54-33 2009-05-12-11-42-55 10000 398223 384985 -13276 LONG
CME 2009-05-14-09-30-45 2009-05-14-12-34-19 4000 1173024 1153527 -19569 SHORT
CMEQU 2009-05-14-09-34-46 2009-05-14-12-30-22 5000 43000 17000 -26090 CME PUT
Neke, sorry about your week, but you will recover as you well know.
Psychologically what happens is we see a setup that seems perfect, so when it runs against us it seems only more perfect, right? It's because we have an opinion and an expectation of what the price "should" do. The reality is that the market shows us exactly what the price should do and when it runs counter to our setup, the trade in invalidated and should be terminated or reversed.
Make a hard rule to cut your losers at x% of your trading account (2% per trade seems to be a golden standard), and add to all winners. The moment you find yourself contemplating moving a stop or adding to a loser, just exit the trade and take a break.
LOOKS LIKE A 1-2-3 LOW, AND I AM BETTING THAT HIS ACCOUNT WILL GO UP, IF HE CAN BREAK THE #2
Neke:
As far as sticking to the rules:
I know its probably not what you want to hear since you're swinging for the fences but , less leverage makes the losses smaller and phycologically easier to stomach and still stick with the plan.
To be able to stick with the rules when you only need 5 or 6 of these kinds of losses to be at 0 or less losses than that to cripple your buying power you have to be super human.
As far as sticking to the rules:
I know its probably not what you want to hear since you're swinging for the fences but , less leverage makes the losses smaller and phycologically easier to stomach and still stick with the plan.
To be able to stick with the rules when you only need 5 or 6 of these kinds of losses to be at 0 or less losses than that to cripple your buying power you have to be super human.
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