Quote from Mike805:
...
Anyhow, Neke, you've made good progress and I remember a while back you toyed with automation. Has that gone anywhere or are you still experimenting with it? It would be an interesting exercise if you could validate your strategy via back-testing and go forward using what you've created as a template.
Regards,
Mike
I did automate a number of strategies, but had to stop because I was not too pleased with the performance. Now, for the most part, I try to add some discretionary element to the "automated" strategies: Get the system alert me when a qualifying set-up arises, and the I can use my discretion to go ahead with the trade or not. My aim eventually is to have all my trades dictated by the system, while I use my discretion (based on my experience of the markets over the years -- which I believe I cannot get the computer to fill in) to take the trade or skip. Of course that means I am still leaving room for psychological flaws; but it is really like being caught between the devil and the deep sea.
Quote from western:
...
2009 is not a year to swing for the fences but rather merely survive and wait for better market conditions.
Thanks for pointing this out. I believe the size of the gainers last year covered up some of the flaws in my execution, and rule violations. For the rest of the year, I hope I can scale back when the market has little to offer.
Quote from BPtrader:
You described me accurately. I have an exit rule that I have never followed, each trade, every day. Sometimes I wonder why I haven't murdered myself.
I thought you solved the problem years ago. Did you go backwards? I thought once you have it, you won't lose it.
I am not sure of the part in italics. I think as long as we are humans, I believe we'll continue to battle the psychological angle. My plan is that over time, I will get more and more removed from the trade, while the machine handles the bulk of the decison-making and execution (and hopefully I can keep from watching the P&L on a constant basis - it is what stirs up much of the emotion).
Quote from FGBS:
Hey Neke,
Just a quick question and throwing an idea into the group which some people may see as weak and others may agree with.
Do you size your trades with the size of the oppertunity? It seems like last year when the sh*t hit the fan you were raking it in when everyone lost their mind and the market would flip and turn and it looked like if you were on the ball there were oppertunities everywhere. This year and especially recently you may have spotted MASSIVE oppertunities but I really don't believe the edge has been as big. So an idea may be to trade smaller as trading a 2% oppertunity with 10% expectations is very likely to burn.
Furthermore I really believe the downswing has filtered out a lot of the more negative EV traders and that the traders left today are making the market more effecient than then second half of 2008 when you performed so well. Until there is a severe upswing and Joe and Bob enter back in the market I think it is realistic to lower expectations a tad until larger oppertunities present themselves.
Just an idea but I am curious to hear what you think and if your analysis says something different in that the current oppertunities ARE as big as in previous more profitable times.
Last thing, I have been the trader trying to get to even for the week/month/year many times and know that I overtrade and try to force stuff, look back and see if you stand by all the trades you did even if there were only 20.
Gluck screwing the head back on a little tighter and keep the focus.
FGBS
Definitely it seems a lot of calmer heads are in the market now, so the extremes that happened in the last quarter of last year isn't occurring too often. The key remains knowing to refrain from making huge bets when the reward is not there.
Quote from illiquid:
Isn't it possible that it only went down because you got out? Or, that it wouldn't have gone up that much to begin with had you not gotten in? And that perhaps somebody knows how much pain viz time/price you can take?
Be afraid, be very afraid.
Haha... I've certainly got that feeling sometimes. However, it is reassuring to know that my 270K is just a drop in the ocean for any big guy to target.
Quote from Wilt:
Don't worry about this loss. What's done is done. You're still in the game. You have a full time job, you're not going to go hungry. Sit on your hands until a surefire, no lose play comes up and trade that. You will make money, it will be no surprise to you that you did, and your confidence, collectedness, and cash will rise. The market will be there, don't rush to make it back. I have and others have blown out accounts that way. You have too much to lose. The easy play will come. Whether it's 3 days, 1 week, or 2 weeks, it will come as sure as snow. LISTEN TO ME NEKE, I'M SERIOUS and my advice is right.
Wilt
You certainly see why quitting a full-time job is not a decision I could just make willy-nilly, with a family and two young kids to look after. It's amazing how the money does not look like money when I am breaking the rules, but at the end of the week, seeing a draw-down of nearly 100K from the high, I suddenly realise this is something I cannot
save from my regular employment in two years. It is then some reality begin to sink in. Climbing back to 370K from 270 is certainly much easier than coming back (370K) from , say, 50K. So at this levels, CAUTION shall be my watch-word.
