Take the Index Piker Challenge

Quote from jjs235:

I want other people to post their results, for amusement and obviously to see what opportunities I may have ahead of me, and thus I will post mine.

I started trading at the end of August 2008 and made many mistakes like overleveraging right before Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. Also, I didn't really know what I was doing until August of this year and I keep finding new sources of alpha. In all I've made about to 200 trades since I started with an average holding period of about 10 days and an average alpha of around 3%/trade after all trading costs (includes trades I made with systems outside of my goto system, these trades all together have cost me about $15000 since I didn't know what I was getting into). Additionally I should note that the 3% average alpha has a 95% confidence interval of 2.5%-3.5% about.

Attached are my results in an excel spreadsheet. I'll also include a picture of my time weighted time series return generated within Interactive Brokers portfolio analysis tool in account management. My next post has this file for verification purposes.

Is there a better way for showing authentic interactive brokers results by the way?
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Finally someone steps up vs the myriad of blowhards.

Please keep us updated on your ongoing returns whatever periodicity you choose.
 
Quote from asiaprop:

I dont even care about this guy's performance. To begin with, anyone can make up statements, secondly, at certain risk levels you can generate 400% returns in a week if you are lucky enough that one single week. The next week the account may be nil. So, whats the point...

What I have an issue with is that this guy is completely confused about index investing. The risk he is running vastly exceeds anything that would be considered prudent or that stays in the region of the index risk itself. To start with, the risk alone already disqualifies his trading style from ever be called passive indexing. Total nonsense. And he gets all agitated when being asked about his 2008 performance, lol. Guess why....
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I agree. This guy's performance does not matter. Its only one year, during a massive bull market. He certainly could of fabricated it. But I will give him the benefit of the doubt and say he didnt. That being said measuring your performance by indexing only during the largest short term runup in the market since the 30's is rediculous. He obviously does not understand that. He will not admit that had he started just ONE year before he started, he would be down significantly. Had he started 10 years before he started he would probably still be down.

The fact that he uses leveraged etfs is unbelievable. I seriously did not think anyone was still stupid enough to hold those long term. Looks like those people still exist! Just wait till the market goes sideways or lower. Then those etfs will be just crushed. Oh well, he will learn the hard way when it comes to that. He says he does Passive index investing, and he holds leveraged etfs and gloats about one weeks performance!!! amazing.

I am done with this thread, I have spent WAY too much time trying to help this guy realize he is a glorified trader. His closed mind will mean he will most likely lose some of his nest egg. If he holds a high percentage of his assets in those leveraged etfs, he may even have an outside chance at losing nearly everything. Then he will blame the market and wall street and goldman sachs. I have seen it before, looks like I'm seeing it again.

PEACE OUT!!!
 
Quote from Index piker:

Finally someone steps up vs the myriad of blowhards.

Please keep us updated on your ongoing returns whatever periodicity you choose.
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Soon I will be starting my own trading journal and post weekly results like neke. I can't post trades however, only $ gains or losses. What else could I add to make it more interesting in your opinion? I need to keep what I do esoteric, since I mainly trade small caps. My trading style is like nothing elite traders do by the way, no technical analysis whatsoever.
 
Quote from Jesus:

Wow your bragging about a weeks worth of gain! How many weeks are in a decade?? You are a trader in indexer's clothes.

Also, I'm pretty sure the market wasn't up 10.4 percent this week. Not too sure how an indexer could crush the market in a week like you just supposedly did.

Hey I won the lottery last week. I beat all the traders and crushed the market too!!!!!!!!!!
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The answer to what he is doing, is obvious ... Jesus! :D (pun intended)

He is taking:

1) the value of the index (+/-) its previous week's performance

and

2) his tax deferred contribution from his business/job (that is what the "profit sharing" number he is referencing, really is).

So essentially, he is adding in money to his account AND counting that amount to his grand total!
***
This isn't indexing, and it isn't passive investing. It's market timing an index AND adding tax deferred money to the account, and counting the GRAND TOTAL (index performance + additions to the account) as the TOTAL RETURN.

Bottom Line: You can't compare what you are doing here to active trading Index piker. It's a bogus comparison, you're comparing apples to oranges, and you're pretty much wasting everyone's time while doing so.

P.S. I'm sure Bernie Madoff and the other Ponzi Kings counted the additional monies in their funds' total return as well ... point-in-fact, that is how they were able to produce them. :p
 
Quote from oraclewizard77:

Yes, looks like you are right.
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You shouldn't fall for this.
Really! Do some math.
Think about it a moment last weeks gain 10.4% was a combined value of $79,793.96 .

Exactly what percentage do you assume
was my employers contribution 10,000, 15,000, 20 thousand dollars in one week.

Now first lets forget the fact that there are IRS limits to profit sharing contributions from a company.

So at $10,000 profit sharing a week that makes a rate of what $500,000 a year coming from my employer minimum.

So basically muddleheaded mandie is claiming my income is a minimum of 2.5 million/yr even if they could contribute 25% of my income.

geez I wish.


Like I told mandie all deposits were disclosed. The account I labeled profit sharing for this thread is a solo 401k.

(For the completely daft) this means tax wise I am both the employer and employee so all deposits come from my earnings since as a sole prop I'm both and the annual deposit has limits based upon my adjusted gross income for that tax year.

tax year transaction date amt

2007xx 11/27/2007 ..... $200
2007xx 3/25/2009 ..... $37,257
2008xx 4/21/2009 ..... $10,000
2008xx 5/13/2009 ... $10,000
2009xx 6/29/2009 ... $12,000


So in 2007 my total limit was $37,457.
I do not know my contribution limit for 2008 but I have until I file to contribute up to my maximum for the calendar year.

The companies I contracted with in 2008 were 6 months behind in paying their invoices so they actually paid in 2009. This makes 2008 earnings low (2009 high)so I limited my contribution to 20k so as not to go over for 2008 year.

I subsequently contributed another 12k towards tax year 2009's limit.

Next month I intend to file ,contribute the remainder if any eligible for a 2008 deduction.

See it's really no nefarious accounting gimmicks and all the information you really needed was supplied originally.


Like I told another poster
MANDIE GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT
and moderators should think a little before they jump on a bandwagon.:eek:
 
Hey Look,

I don't know why a moderator summarily deleted my post, and it's not my fault if none of you can do basic addition, subtraction multiplication and division, but it's obvious to anyone reading this thread that Index piker is:

a) adding in funds that he has collected over at least a decade - if not more,
b) adding in pre-tax dollars from his job/business (just as I stated), and
c) using the addition-of-funds to calculate his TOTAL RATE OF RETURN ... as I also stated in my previous post. :)

Keep the fantasy going IP, maybe you will keep believing it when the S&P500 takes a nose dive off the cliff. :p

P.S. And since you obviously don't want the truth exposed here, Index piker, I won't be wasting anymore of my time with your thread based on innumeracy and lack of basic accounting skills.

Ciao! :D
 
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