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Take the Index Piker Challenge
- Thread starter Index piker
- Start date
Quote from Index piker:
1a) I agree many people don't understand risk but ,you've got to be kidding me if you think that situation improves with trading.
1b) Too funny, low cost index investing is the most efficient way of extracting investing profits for the risk assumed.
2) Somehow I suspect I'll outperform the s&p 500.
3) I recognize: capitalization size, value, growth, foreign, domestic, emerging categories and invest according to my perception of risk.
Sorry that you don't know how to trade for real money and real trader percentage gains.
Perhaps the Motley Fool website would be better for you?
so how did you do last year? And how did you do over the past 5 years? Indexing should have gotten you pretty much nowhere over the past couple years. So I am not sure what you are actually cheering for except the last 50% run up right after you must have lost your shirt and then some prior to March 09.
Why is this board loaded with idiots. People who have mostly long-only strategies and have a big mouth during 8 month of uptrends. People who claim they are the short kings when markets turn down. Funny you never see the same people make it through a full cycle.
;-)
Why is this board loaded with idiots. People who have mostly long-only strategies and have a big mouth during 8 month of uptrends. People who claim they are the short kings when markets turn down. Funny you never see the same people make it through a full cycle.
;-)
Quote from Index piker:
Yes, I use etf's and mutual funds.
I don't go short.
1b) what are you telling us here? Simply that you have not found any strategy that extracts alpha. Nothing else!!!
2) Somehow, so then you also take more risk than the SPX or can you point out how you end up with higher returns but lower risk? Because if you claim you do then you would contradict your own 1b statement
3) so how is YOUR perception of risk any different than the unsystematic approach of any day trader? You mentioning that you trade at "your perception of risk"...what do you mean with that. I bet that if you attempt to generate a higher return than your benchmark by diversifying into emerging markets, commodity names or anything that over leverages the exposure in the index then you also end up with higher risk. And that contradicts 2), lol. Why? Risk-adjusted you end up with a similar return than your benchmark because you do nothing else than leveraging certain sectors/groups.
My point, my friend is that someone with an edge can outdo you at any time at lower risk levels. Of course such strategies are hard to find but just because you have not found any or because you dont want to put in the work to look for such opportunities does not mean they dont exist. Prime example: High frequency trading. The risk adjusted returns of a successful bank group are a multiple times higher than any index. Hope you see the point...
2) Somehow, so then you also take more risk than the SPX or can you point out how you end up with higher returns but lower risk? Because if you claim you do then you would contradict your own 1b statement
3) so how is YOUR perception of risk any different than the unsystematic approach of any day trader? You mentioning that you trade at "your perception of risk"...what do you mean with that. I bet that if you attempt to generate a higher return than your benchmark by diversifying into emerging markets, commodity names or anything that over leverages the exposure in the index then you also end up with higher risk. And that contradicts 2), lol. Why? Risk-adjusted you end up with a similar return than your benchmark because you do nothing else than leveraging certain sectors/groups.
My point, my friend is that someone with an edge can outdo you at any time at lower risk levels. Of course such strategies are hard to find but just because you have not found any or because you dont want to put in the work to look for such opportunities does not mean they dont exist. Prime example: High frequency trading. The risk adjusted returns of a successful bank group are a multiple times higher than any index. Hope you see the point...
Quote from Index piker:
1a) I agree many people don't understand risk but ,you've got to be kidding me if you think that situation improves with trading.
1b) Too funny, low cost index investing is the most efficient way of extracting investing profits for the risk assumed.
2) Somehow I suspect I'll outperform the s&p 500.
3) I recognize: capitalization size, value, growth, foreign, domestic, emerging categories and invest according to my perception of risk.
Quote from talontrading:
(1)it absolutely does... trading, done correctly, absolutely gives you better control over your risk. the size and consistency of my returns over many different market cycles verifies this...
(2)on one hand it is important to develop a style that fits your personality. on the other hand, i'm concerned you've pretty much guaranteed you aren't going to figure it out.
good luck.
1) Then you will have no reservations about posting your own snapshot of your returns this year and going forward (on a monthly /quarterly basis) will you?
2) I can assure you I have a style figured out that suits me, you just don't believe index investing can beat traders who claim to be consistently profitable.
I'm here to dispel that notion if anyone accepts my challenge.
So far it doesn't look good, I seriously doubt any traders will accept , and that's odd because I keep getting told about all of this skill and consistent profitability by traders on this website.
Quote from slapshot:
Since I average a gain of about 50% to 70% of my account balance every month trading futures, your 90% per year is a real snooze.
Other than blowing your own horn, what is the point of this thread?
If that is the case then I just humbly ask you to substantiate that claim by making snapshots of your account summary that will reveal your returns for this year.
so far you have not shown jack s....whats your performance been over the past 5 years? Care to share? I have not seen it unless I missed it and I admit I did not follow all your posts too closely.
Index investing would have gotten you NOWHERE over the past 5 years (to be exact over the past 11 years!!!)
Index investing would have gotten you NOWHERE over the past 5 years (to be exact over the past 11 years!!!)
Quote from Index piker:
1) Then you will have no reservations about posting your own snapshot of your returns this year and going forward (on a monthly /quarterly basis) will you?
2) I can assure you I have a style figured out that suits me, you just don't believe index investing can beat traders who claim to be consistently profitable.
I'm here to dispel that notion if anyone accepts my challenge.
So far it doesn't look good, I seriously doubt any traders will accept , and that's odd because I keep getting told about all of this skill and consistent profitability by traders on this website.
Quote from asiaprop:
(1)so how did you do last year? And how did you do over the past 5 years? Indexing should have gotten you pretty much nowhere over the past couple years. So I am not sure what you are actually cheering for except the last 50% run up right after you must have lost your shirt and then some prior to March 09.
Why is this board loaded with idiots. People who have mostly long-only strategies and have a big mouth during 8 month of uptrends. People who claim they are the short kings when markets turn down.(2) Funny you never see the same people make it through a full cycle.
;-)
I didn't do too well the 4 yrs previous to 2008 but then again my money was accumulating while I was learning about investing /trading and the market.
By 2008 I had come to the conclusion that I had learned enough and was ready to implement my plan at an advantageous time. I cashed out of my retirement annuity and put the proceeds to work.
2) Well I'm here,willing to show those with an open mind that index investing over the long term is superior .
Sure it's possible some traders will outperform. The question is WHO KNOWS who that will be beforehand?
a) so you have actually been ANYTHING but an indexer. If you indexed in 2008 you would be 60-70% poorer and even after the March run up you would still be miles behind. Why dont you consult a long term chart of ANY index you pick globally (developed markets) why dont you show us where indexing would have gotten you to new riches. To be honest the past 11 years even point to a departure to how equity markets have traded over the past 100 years. Maybe you want to investigate further before you make any claims on long term equity market performance. We have made a double top from the high in 2000. Since then we traded down and are back where we were in 1998. So, where exactly lies your superiority?
Tons of strategies (even long term ones) performed a multiple times better than that even at a very similar risk level.
I really dont see any arguments you bring forth that support your claims.
Tons of strategies (even long term ones) performed a multiple times better than that even at a very similar risk level.
I really dont see any arguments you bring forth that support your claims.
Quote from Index piker:
I didn't do too well the 4 yrs previous to 2008 but then again my money was accumulating while I was learning about investing /trading and the market.
By 2008 I had come to the conclusion that I had learned enough and was ready to implement my plan at an advantageous time. I cashed out of my retirement annuity and put the proceeds to work.
2) Well I'm here,willing to show those with an open mind that index investing over the long term is superior .
Sure it's possible some traders will outperform. The question is WHO KNOWS who that will be beforehand?
Quote from asiaprop:
The risk adjusted returns of a successful bank group are a multiple times higher than any index. Hope you see the point...
You mean the bank groups who've required multiple billion dollar bailouts of taxpayer money or the bank groups that have gotten themselves so entwined with govt policy as to now be the policy makers.
Gee it must be hard to make money if you can make the rules and have the govt put your competitors out of business.
Right I see your point.