Take the Index Piker Challenge

You think posting your nest egg that you've been working on for years, and is finally seeing a profit on after:

a) the run-up in the market, and
b) infusing more capital into your losing account

Means that " a passive portfolio" beats "active trading"???#!!?? :p :D :)

This is a classic example of a man counting his chickens before they've hatched, and running around telling everyone how rich he is.

Ciao!
 
Quote from talontrading:

What exactly do you mean my passive portfolio? I'm not sure we're on the same page with this so please clarify.
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1) keep costs low, minimal activity
2) diversification to eliminate idiosyncratic security risk
3) correctly identifying your own risk level
4) control your emotions so as to enable you to stick with your plan(which should be written).

I don't trade in individual securities I use index funds for diversification and cost control.
Minimal activity means just that ultra-low turn over and activity level. I've made no sales in either account since opening them.
I'm not saying I will never close out a position, only that it would take relatively extra-ordinary circumstances.

I'm completely comfortable holding positions for years. I do plan to be decreasing my cash into substitute positions which again may be held for several months to years, depending upon my take of market and economic events.
 
This is neke's portfolio. He made over $ 500,000 just from trading alone starting with $ 30,000. I am not at this level yet, the best I did was once trade $ 20,000 into $ 200,000.00 before taking money out to buy real estate.

Can one make money by investing in an index over time. The answer is yes, as long as the index goes up over time.



Opening Balance: 575,997
Net loss for the week -24,055
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance: 551,942

Number of Trades 30
Number of Profitable Trades 20


Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 11/07/2009

Opening Balance: 320,064
Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 231,878 (Up 72.4%)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance 551,942

Number of Trades 1162
Number of Profitable Trades 736

Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week

TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE

WFMI 2009-11-05-09-30-08 2009-11-05-11-54-52 20000 561484 580178 18644 SHORT
QZNKX 2009-11-06-10-31-22 2009-11-06-15-50-15 30000 128485 139500 10608 AMZN CALL
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HANS 2009-11-06-10-10-56 2009-11-06-10-19-59 20000 678614 670124 -8528 LONG
HANS 2009-11-06-09-45-48 2009-11-06-10-06-36 20000 695638 678003 -17667 LONG
BDK 2009-11-02-17-51-34 2009-11-03-11-07-03 20000 1199460 1166677 -32869 PRECONS
 
Quote from Emini Maestro:

Congratulations on being a profitable trader, and for reaching 90% in one year.

I prefer strategies that net 90% over time per MONTH myself, but any profitable trader deserves a hurrah for beating the odds against him.
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No i believe it is you who needs the congratulations..... since you are capable of returning 90% a month your 1.5k etrade account which you funded from delivering pizzas will be up to well over a billion two years from now.....

Make sure not to let your wealth get to your head.:D
 
Quote from oraclewizard77:

This is neke's portfolio. He made over $ 500,000 just from trading alone starting with $ 30,000. I am not at this level yet, the best I did was once trade $ 20,000 into $ 200,000.00 before taking money out to buy real estate.

Can one make money by investing in an index over time. The answer is yes, as long as the index goes up over time.
More...


Yes neke posted some astounding returns last year and very good returns so far this year. The question is how long will he last a downturn. Personally I contend my portfolio will prove more durable, time will tell.

It never ceases to amaze me that people always assume a bear market is a negative event.
 
So correct me if I'm wrong, but you're buying ETF's and holding for a long time, trading very infrequently.

How do you make your decisions of what to buy, when to buy and when to sell? Do you ever get short?

Why is this idea cool? I don't get what the fuss is if you're just trading an ETF portfolio.


Quote from Index piker:

1) keep costs low, minimal activity
2) diversification to eliminate idiosyncratic security risk
3) correctly identifying your own risk level
4) control your emotions so as to enable you to stick with your plan(which should be written).

I don't trade in individual securities I use index funds for diversification and cost control.
Minimal activity means just that ultra-low turn over and activity level. I've made no sales in either account since opening them.
I'm not saying I will never close out a position, only that it would take relatively extra-ordinary circumstances.

I'm completely comfortable holding positions for years. I do plan to be decreasing my cash into substitute positions which again may be held for several months to years, depending upon my take of market and economic events.
More...
 
Quote from talontrading:

So correct me if I'm wrong, but you're buying ETF's and holding for a long time, trading very infrequently.

How do you make your decisions of what to buy, when to buy and when to sell? Do you ever get short?

Why is this idea cool? I don't get what the fuss is if you're just trading an ETF portfolio.
More...

Yes, I use etf's and mutual funds.

I don't go short.
 
I'm really not trying to be rude here, but what is the point of your posts? I think people are assuming a lot of hidden risks in indexing and the returns don't justify it. I think you are correct that 99% of the ET posters are full of shit, but I really don't see how "buy etfs, dont go short, and hold for a long time" is anything better than "just buy spy."

Do you at least try to allocate between different market caps / sectors based on your analysis or are you making no decisions at all?

Quote from Index piker:

Yes, I use etf's and mutual funds.

I don't go short.
More...
 
Quote from talontrading:

(1a) I think people are assuming a lot of hidden risks in indexing and the (1b)returns don't justify it. ... (2)I really don't see how "buy etfs, dont go short, and hold for a long time" is anything better than "just buy spy."

(3)Do you at least try to allocate between different market caps / sectors based on your analysis or are you making no decisions at all?
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1a) I agree many people don't understand risk but ,you've got to be kidding me if you think that situation improves with trading.

1b) Too funny, low cost index investing is the most efficient way of extracting investing profits for the risk assumed.


2) Somehow I suspect I'll outperform the s&p 500.

3) I recognize: capitalization size, value, growth, foreign, domestic, emerging categories and invest according to my perception of risk.
 
it absolutely does... trading, done correctly, absolutely gives you better control over your risk. the size and consistency of my returns over many different market cycles verifies this and i'm not alone. just because you weren't able to figure it out doesnt mean trading is impossible.

on one hand it is important to develop a style that fits your personality. on the other hand, i'm concerned you've pretty much guaranteed you aren't going to figure it out.

sounds like you had some bad experiences learning to trade. we all did. the ones who make seriously outsized returns never gave up and decided indexing was the solution.

good luck.


Quote from Index piker:

1a) I agree many people don't understand risk but ,you've got to be kidding me if you think that situation improves with trading.
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