TA - the final answer...

[d08]

Ok. But you can hardly fault someone for not being able to predict the future.

It's not really about predicting the future, it's about understanding human psychology and how it related to supply and demand.

 

[Thor]

If you have no knowledge you will never find anything. Lack of knowledge is the main obstacle.

Very true.

FJ,Fwiw,there was a technical program called Stratasearch that was basically a backtester/ optimizer that could look at unlimited technical rules and run thousands of simulations on varying combinations of technical and money management rules..

I was going to suggest Stratasearch as a choice but it may not be around anymore. I bought it 9-10 yrs ago and used to leave it running for days on end.
It did grind out a few systems which I never used, but I did learn a lot from it.

 

[taowave]

The developer no longer supports the product....My guess is he couldn't make money trading the systems

 

[RedDuke]

......there's only so much you can do with OHLCV data, additional data of course changes everything.

Hi db08,

Curious what additional data do you use?

Thanks

 

[userque]

This thread will be a continuing journal of me backtesting different TA indicators and combinations of indicators. Technical indicators are all derived from raw numbers and are mathematical equations.

Therefore, if TA has any merit, it should be able to be proven that by using an indicator or a combination of indicators, that it should be possible to gain a mathematical edge of >50%.

I already started this on another thread that I will copy here shortly.

I don't care if this thread goes on for months.

I am very open to suggestions of what to back test.

Start with the most popular indicators ... going to the least. (Google it.) One at a time. Then do two at a time, ... etc. All (mostly) permutations/combinations of indicators and parameters.

What platform will you be using to backtest/optimize?

Despite what you've been fed in this thread, you can make a profitable system using standard indicators. (Google it.)

Good luck, and keep us posted.

By the way, always do your own due diligence. If someone makes a strong claim such as "NO STANDARD INDICATORS WORK!!" Ask them to show you evidence that not one standard indicator (or combination) in the world works. Etc.

 

[speedo]

Don't feed the trolls.

 

[lindq]

The simplest indicators can be useful but of course, alone they are worthless, they're just one component of at least more than a few. In the end, there's only so much you can do with OHLCV data, additional data of course changes everything.

Humans have a need to impose order on chaos. They love to do it visually. Thus, charts and indicators. Pretty stuff, but not required for successful trading.

 

[speedo]

Some humans fail to see the order in chaos....maybe most humans.

 

[JSOP]

I use a statistical model for prediction which is based on data and parameters, but not indicators. I know others do, too. This is technical analysis based on past prices, but not indicators or charts.

I think indicators can be quite useful, but the ones I've talked to who built a profitable system using indicators are all using custom indicators which are not available in the public domain.

Read The Man Who Solved the Market to get some insight into what it takes to build a profitable trading system. Think years and years of research.

The general problem with the common indicators is that they're either lagging (your signals will be late and you'll miss the move) or too fast (you'll get whipsawed).

You can still use common indicators but you would have to use combinations of them and/or use them in a way that is not intended by their creators so basically in customized version of common indicators in a way coming up with customized indicators.

 

[Nobert]

Some humans fail to see the order in chaos....maybe most humans.

Very few are able to create the beauty of very high quality, while most of the folks are walking between chaos and order.

Day time : in the work (order)
After the work : few beers on the couch/sofa (chaos)

If left unchecked , chaos, with the spice of victim mentality, and populist/nationalist political ideologies, soon will turn into events like we have seen in WW2.



But chaos also leads to the ,,treasure'', in order to get it, one has to enter that realm of the unknown.
When you start learning something new, basically, you enter into that.

Interesting topic. But - out of the topic.