TA - the final answer...

[virtusa]

TA - the final answer...
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If you choose a bad car you have to push, if you choose a good car it will run without any pushing.

Same applies to trading (or anything else). Make the correct choice, for which you unfortunately need knowledge. If you have no knowledge you will never find anything. Lack of knowledge is the main obstacle. Most people overestimate their own intellectual capacities.

I made already many times this comparison: 90% of the drivers are sure they are in the top 10%. Which is mathematically impossible.
Most traders who fail will never admit that they are themselves the reason of the failure. Too bad for their ego. Nobody wants to look stupid.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

If you choose a bad car you have to push, if you choose a good car it will run without any pushing.

Same applies to trading (or anything else). Make the correct choice, for which you unfortunately need knowledge. If you have no knowledge you will never find anything. Lack of knowledge is the main obstacle. Most people overestimate their own intellectual capacities.

I made already many times this comparison: 90% of the drivers are sure they are in the top 10%. Which is mathematically impossible.
Most traders who fail will never admit that they are themselves the reason of the failure. Too bad for their ego. Nobody wants to look stupid.

Ok. But you can hardly fault someone for not being able to predict the future.

 

[themickey]

If you choose a bad car you have to push, if you choose a good car it will run without any pushing.

Same applies to trading (or anything else). Make the correct choice, for which you unfortunately need knowledge. If you have no knowledge you will never find anything. Lack of knowledge is the main obstacle. Most people overestimate their own intellectual capacities.

I made already many times this comparison: 90% of the drivers are sure they are in the top 10%. Which is mathematically impossible.
Most traders who fail will never admit that they are themselves the reason of the failure. Too bad for their ego. Nobody wants to look stupid.

I'm just trolling OP for some light fun.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Ok so you need to have the math skills of a theoretical physicist. This is beyond my ability to do. I don't have the time or energy to invest into something that complicated...

No, I don't think it necessarily needs to involve advanced math. While I know calculus - my model is based on simple math and parameters, although it took me many years to think through the logic.

The point is that if you want to consistently take money out of the markets you need to do the research needed. And that's likely to take you years. If you don't want to do that, then do something else.

Does your system consistently make you profits? What type of ROI do you expect to make per year?

My trading account had an ROI of 13.3 % this week alone on 3 trading days.

I still have challenges and sticking points which I'm adressing, but I'm at a place where I most often have fairly good understanding of what's going on and what's most likely to happen. Roughly.

For example - if you've made a prediction, you need to actually trade that prediction. This means execution, stops, missing entries, chasing entries, taking risk, facing drawdown, fast moving live markets, etc. Very diffferent from back-testing a historical market on a dead chart.

 

[virtusa]

Ok. But you can hardly fault someone for not being able to predict the future.

Correct.

Predicting the futur is impossible, you can try to get as close as possible to it, but real predicting is impossible.

I already told to a few friends that they should never start to trade as they don't have the qualifications to do it successfully. I don't want them to lose time and money.

 

[maxinger]

Each trader will find what works for him. For me pure price action does not work. For you, what I use maybe will not work;
The only thing that matters is what works for you; even if nobody else can work with it.

agree to mister.

We are all different with different capabilities, mindset, competencies & preferences.

We presented our views.
So it is up to OP to
accept / reject / ignore question it.

 

[taowave]

FJ,Fwiw,there was a technical program called Stratasearch that was basically a backtester/ optimizer that could look at unlimited technical rules and run thousands of simulations on varying combinations of technical and money management rules..

I do not recall seeing more than 10 systems return 50 percent in sample,and none of them performed well in WFA..

On the other hand ,I have 2 buddies who trade a modified Canslim approach and do put up 50 percent...

Judging by your last 2 threads,it appears you are looking for the grail..There is no one single fundamental metric (Piotroski/Greenblatt not included),techical system that will bring you to the promised land..

 

[Option_Attack]

The author posted on ET for awhile. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-best-ta-book-ever-published.79465/page-8#post-1250079

 

[SanMiguel]

This thread will be a continuing journal of me backtesting different TA indicators and combinations of indicators. Technical indicators are all derived from raw numbers and are mathematical equations.

Therefore, if TA has any merit, it should be able to be proven that by using an indicator or a combination of indicators, that it should be possible to gain a mathematical edge of >50%.

I already started this on another thread that I will copy here shortly.

I don't care if this thread goes on for months.

I am very open to suggestions of what to back test.

If you want to do this to practice programming and back testing then fine but you're eating your time otherwise. Indicators don't work by themselves, markets change too.
All the indicators work some of the time!
The trick is in applying them

 

[d08]

I think indicators can be quite useful, but the ones I've talked to who built a profitable system using indicators are all using custom indicators which are not available in the public domain.

The simplest indicators can be useful but of course, alone they are worthless, they're just one component of at least more than a few. In the end, there's only so much you can do with OHLCV data, additional data of course changes everything.