TA - Objective or Psychological Skill?

[NoDoji]

Quote from MAESTRO:

...picked the most powerful psychological patterns and exploited them. And it only makes sense because it is not TA at all – it is the first psychological patterns book in existence.

I thought that was a form of technical analysis. I trade technical analysis of price action, waiting patiently for psychological patterns to form (zones where double pressure is likely to fuel a tradable price swing).

Bob Volman calls it "double pressure"; Brooks refers to "trapped traders".

 

[dom993]

From Wikipedia: "In finance, technical analysis is a security analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume."

If you didn't notice it, Toby Crabel's book matches exactly that definition of TA.

Furthermore, there are many ways of studying past market data and coming to a direction forecast methodology. Are you denying that any of these ways can generate profitable trading ?

I have to ask you, if your trading isn't based on the analysis of past market data, what is it based on? Fundamental Analysis? Astronomy? I am really curious.

Another question ... does the MogulFund (IB) tracked in the RAPACapIntro MinorLeague under the name of Maestro has anything to do with you?

 

[MAESTRO]

Quote from dom993:

... I have to ask you, if your trading isn't based on the analysis of past market data, what is it based on? Fundamental Analysis? Astronomy? I am really curious.

Mathematical Psychology. And it is not based on "the analysis of past market data". It is based on my thorough research of randomness and psychological reaction of humans to randomly generated patterns. The bulk of my work is tedious separation of “illusions” from stable and embedded patterns; measuring their characteristics and investigating the possible human reaction to them in the attempt to increase the anticipation skills of a decision maker that operates in the highly uncertain environment.

 

[MAESTRO]

Quote from dom993:

.. Another question ... does the MogulFund (IB) tracked in the RAPACapIntro MinorLeague under the name of Maestro has anything to do with you?

No. My fund has a completely different name and it is not "tracked" by anybody. It is extremely private.

 

[dom993]

Quote from MAESTRO:

Mathematical Psychology. And it is not based on "the analysis of past market data". It is based on my thorough research of randomness and psychological reaction of humans to randomly generated patterns. The bulk of my work is tedious separation of “illusions” from stable and embedded patterns; measuring their characteristics and investigating the possible human reaction to them in the attempt to increase the anticipation skills of a decision maker that operates in the highly uncertain environment.

In my books, any form of backtesting falls under "the analysis of past market data". Are you skipping backtesting altogether? How else do you evaluate if your trading methodology can possibly make money ?

 

[MAESTRO]

Quote from NoDoji:

I thought that was a form of technical analysis. I trade technical analysis of price action, waiting patiently for psychological patterns to form (zones where double pressure is likely to fuel a tradable price swing).

Bob Volman calls it "double pressure"; Brooks refers to "trapped traders".

Yeah, unfortunately it is a very common misunderstanding. The positive feedback based, self-extracting behavioral patterns are definitely not a TA subject. It is the subject discussed in the Quantum Decision Making Theory and other Behavioral, Mathematical and Perception Psychology books. Tony’s book has accidently pointed out some of them and mistakenly labeled them as TA patterns.

 

[MAESTRO]

Quote from dom993:

In my books, any form of backtesting falls under "the analysis of past market data". Are you skipping backtesting altogether? How else do you evaluate if your trading methodology can possibly make money ?

There is absolutely no back testing in what I do; it is completely useless as it cannot possibly provide enough of statistical significance to anything you create.

There are many fields of science and technology that cannot even think of having the “back testing” results. Anything that deals with human experience cannot be back tested by definition! The only way to create anything new in those industries is to hone the anticipation skills and rely on them heavily!

 

[dom993]

Quote from MAESTRO:

There is absolutely no back testing in what I do; it is completely useless as it cannot possibly provide enough of statistical significance to anything you create.

So, you expect it to work in the future, with such a large ego that you don't bother backtesting ... Am I missing something ?!

 

[MAESTRO]

Quote from dom993:

So, you expect it to work in the future, with such a large ego that you don't bother backtesting ... Am I missing something ?!

Yes. What you are missing is that back testing is just one of many methods of verifying your models and not the best one at that. The best way to test is to create the argument why everything other than what you anticipate must have less probabilities of happening. And that is the real art. This way you are not relying on just one path of random walk (the history) but on many possible outcomes (alternative universes) of conditions that you have registered. No matter how long the history you use to test, it will still yield very little significance in the face of myriad other possible outcomes of the same preexisting conditions.

 

[jem]

Delusions? that is why you are not making any money trading.

If you made it worth my time I would pull up old accounts to prove it.

You want to put $20,000 dollars on the proof? more?

We will post the money in an attorneys escrow account.

Quote from marketsurfer:

Amen.. TA is decietful, and extremely seductive at the same time. I have been trying to spread this message, but the internet delusions of success stories keep trying to keep the myth going. surf