TA - Objective or Psychological Skill?
- Thread starter cornix
- Start date
That's what statistical analyses are for. It proves or disproves whether a real pattern exists that offers a tradable edge.
If 1000 people see an inkblot and 600 of them think it looks like a dog, then it's possible the inkblot resembles a dog.
If 1000 traders see a price pullback in an uptrend and 600 of them see it as a potential with-trend continuation hook and buy it, then it's possible price might go back up and test that last new high.
Quote from tobbe:
So you know the truth. Everyone that use TA to trade profitably are either lying or self deluded?
This is so condescending.
Absolutely not. I am not arguing that people who use TA make money. I am arguing that people who make money mistakenly believe that they make money because of TA. If you happen to be on a winning streak of a coin tossing game it makes no difference to the probabilities of the game itself. It simply sets a pattern in your head that sounds something like âI must have done something right because I made moneyâ. And instantly the patter jumps ahead â âI used TAâ. That must be the reason. Cause and effect are connected in your brain and reinforced over the time period. That happens because of the arcsine law of probabilities. Once the random walk takes to one side it rarely wonders to another. I doubt, however, that you will see it. Those delusions a very strong! And no, I am not condescending at all! I am just tired of repeating those experiments and finding the truth without being able to convince people who fell under the spell of the illusion of randomness. Please understand; your success has absolutely nothing to do with your TA and there is no way your success could be repeated by anyone else including yourself if you started all over again.
Quote from NoDoji:
Tobbe, haven't you heard anything Surf has been saying? People who use TA to trade profitably don't exist.
Seeking approval and verification from others isn't going to help your trading.
If you produce profits, it is despite TA not because of it. Read what Maestro has to say. It is the truth despite the Kumbya campfire support group here. true believers will never learn.
surf
That is an opinion and not a fact. You can never prove it's impossible to learn TA and use it for consistently profitable trading. For starters, it's almost impossible to define what TA is.
With your reasoning it is also impossible to prove that TA can be profitable. Even if I say I know several people (not on ET) that have been taught TA and after a few years of very hard work are now profitable traders you will say that I am either lying or that they also are subject to randomness.
It's an interesting streak of randomness though, since it can be transferred from one trader to another.
I'm just saying...
Ok sorry, I will not argue about this further. I can actually sympathize with the frustration of a never ending discussion even if it's from the other side. I know you're not really condescending.
All your friends are profitable TA traders?
Quote from tobbe:
No
Go have a baby will you. And good luck with the move and everything.
Ok, brother, thanks!! good luck to you also