TA is BS?

[maxinger]

If you just use TA, your success rate is going to be like 1% or less.

so improve your success rate to say 50%,
you have to

- look at the bigger, macro picture of the market

- use inter-market correlations

take for example today's market.

macro picture :
The US has restricted sales of semiconductor chips/equipment ... to China.
Countries like China and Taiwan will be affected.


intermarket correlations :

China A50 futures,
HangSeng futures,
Taiwan Index futures

all moved in tandem.
So if you trade those things using TA/PA, the chances of success will be high.

 

[smallfil]

If you just use TA, your success rate is going to be like 1% or less.

so improve your success rate to say 50%,
you have to

- look at the bigger, macro picture of the market

- use inter-market correlations

I just use technical analysis and let the percentages take care of the rest. What matters is your trading system. Do you have an edge (positive expectation) or no edge (negative expectation)? If you have no edge, no matter what you do, you will lose all your monies, guaranteed. However, a trading system with an edge, will make monies over the long haul, guaranteed. It is like owning a casino. You only need a small percentage advantage over the gamblers.

 

[Scataphagos]

Exactly. I can’t agree with you more.

Amazing. You profess to know yet don't have even the slightest clue.

For all you ETers... don't listen to this bozo. His post is pure garbage. He couldn't be more wrong if he cut his own head off.

 

[SunTrader]

I did not say others do not work. However, most strategies or edges tend to fade of with time, but buy and hold seem to a have a net positive return in the long run(although it is not super profitable). Just my 2 cents.

Only if you buy and sell at the right time. And I don't mean buy at extreme low, sell at extreme high. But buy, and even more importantly sell, when your personal finances allow you to as well as when markets prices are not against you.

Buy the Nasdaq at the dotcom bubble peak and have to sell anytime before it came back 15 years later and you lost. Hold through that whole time and all you lost was 15 years waiting to make money. Time as you age is more precious than money.

Bull markets have a way of making people forget bull markets aren't always and believing nobody loses and up, up, up is all markets ever do.

The Dow and S&P are prolly up 1000's percent (no idea really) since their inception but many people buy the individual components too. Dozens and dozens of the stocks in those two indices are no longer around. Some taken over, some are now smaller and less competitive so they were removed, some no longer exist. Look at GE for example - how people made money in that in recent years? Bet some made big money going short GE hehe.

Optimism is great when it is grounded in reality.

 

[SunTrader]

Another one of those non-randomness event. Actually two. A drop on PPI news @ 830am of over 100+ NQ points stopped @ 10852.00 - 1.75 pts short of next lower TD TrendFactor level (11.12%) @ 10850.25

Then it retraced back up and turned back down again after touching upper TD Trendfactor (5.56%) level that previously was support, now resistance.

 

[MrAgi1]

Amazing. You profess to know yet don't have even the slightest clue.

For all you ETers... don't listen to this bozo. His post is pure garbage. He couldn't be more wrong if he cut his own head off.

Lol. If you have read all my posts on this thread, you would see I always claim it’s my opinion or what I think. However, if you think my question or comments are pure garbage then fair enough, it’s still your opinion.

 

[MrAgi1]

View attachment 297310 Another one of those non-randomness event. Actually two. A drop on PPI news @ 830am of over 100+ NQ points stopped @ 10852.00 - 1.75 pts short of next lower TD TrendFactor level (11.12%) @ 10850.25

Then it retraced back up and turned back down again after touching upper TD Trendfactor (5.56%) level that previously was support, now resistance.

Interesting. Maybe this is something I did look into later.

 

[Scataphagos]

Lol. If you have read all my posts on this thread, you would see I always claim it’s my opinion or what I think. However, if you think my question or comments are pure garbage then fair enough, it’s still your opinion.

This is the first post of yours I've encountered... and though you don't realize it, your premise is entirely wrong. Not just "a little off", but zero percent correct.

 

[MrAgi1]

Only if you buy and sell at the right time. And I don't mean buy at extreme low, sell at extreme high. But buy, and even more importantly sell, when your personal finances allow you to as well as when markets prices are not against you.

Buy the Nasdaq at the dotcom bubble peak and have to sell anytime before it came back 15 years later and you lost. Hold through that whole time and all you lost was 15 years waiting to make money. Time as you age is more precious than money.

Bull markets have a way of making people forget bull markets aren't always and believing nobody loses and up, up, up is all markets ever do.

The Dow and S&P are prolly up 1000's percent (no idea really) since their inception but many people buy the individual components too. Dozens and dozens of the stocks in those two indices are no longer around. Some taken over, some are now smaller and less competitive so they were removed, some no longer exist. Look at GE for example - how people made money in that in recent years? Bet some made big money going short GE hehe.

Optimism is great when it is grounded in reality.

You have a point. But when you see research that shows that the broad market index has outperformed over 90% of hedge funds, it becomes interesting.

ofcourse, buying and holding is not full proof(depending on entry) and would probably not make significant amounts of money, but it’s mostly stood the test of time as compared to other strategies.
I believe certain strategies might work but not the popular everyday TA we see on the internet or read from books.

 

[Scataphagos]

You have a point. But when you see research that shows that the broad market index has outperformed over 90% of hedge funds, it becomes interesting.

ofcourse, buying and holding is not full proof(depending on entry) and would probably not make significant amounts of money, but it’s mostly stood the test of time as compared to other strategies.
I believe certain strategies might work but not the popular everyday TA we see on the internet or read from books.

I was on you case for being so blatantly wrong, but you were civil about it.. so I will be also.

1. Hedge fund managers are supposed to secure alpha through "better stock selection". Come to learn, they're not as good at it as advertised/expected.

2. B&H is a "thing", mostly from Fed goosing the money. We've had decades of that.

3. Most noob traders originally learn of TA being pattern things like "cup and handle", "head and shoulders", "bull/bear flag". That's only a small part of the story... and a small part at that.

The correct understanding and use of TA is, "after the market does _________, it usually does __________". Classic patterns (cup and handle, head and shoulders, etc) fall under this as well... but there is MUCH more to it.

Once you learn "Price TA", you can pick your way profitably through the market with always controlled/low risk.

(Then again, perhaps your intention is to punk the board. If that's the case, you done good!)