I cannot fully recall the conversation, but my hunch is that it had something to do with things you might have been saying that didn't have a tangible basis to them. I don't recall exactly though so please excuse me if this isn't it at all. I like something tangible to go on, a concrete example of an idea. Without this, we might as well be talking religion and relying on faith.
T/A Fails Time and Time Again - Why?
- Thread starter MarkBrown
- Start date
Do you have any backtests validating the replacement of time with some other variable leading to better trading signals? Can you post one or two? Thanks.
i have every pattern that can possibly happen completely defined and progression flags that reveal it's creation. of course i know exactly where the price has to go, the exact high or low. this is sort of a trick though cause remember i am building blocks and the price has to come where i want it to in order to build that block. if the price does not build that block then a different pattern is revealed. nonetheless within the range size of the bar i know the high or low is going to fit my form one way of the other.
liquidity and placement in the queue and order type all play as factors to overcome when trading every pattern. so i have selected one main pattern to trade for now which suits my needs and does not control my every waking moment. that pattern occurs as often as 4 times a week to as little as 2 times a month. i either win or break even and i only trade the emini sp.
yes you have defined it very well (with so much info i have left out), to determine what you have is remarkable. so if my range bar is 3 points i know my high or low will be the high or low of that 3 point bar. getting up to that bar i know from patterns that a high or low bar is coming, like a raging bull is running right at you. when that bull hits the concrete wall it's all over i go and slice a steak off him while he is still knocked out. i also build a sturdy pen around him so that when he awakens minus a steak, i can continue to slice him up for additional meals.
meaning they are successful managers even with time data as a hindrance they have put in place what if's so they really have thought trough the patterns. sometimes they just go flat and that is because they know most likely that dog won't hunt he needs a rest. other times early in the trade they may see a different pattern overlap and change plans. i think it's not a bad thing and shows great intelligence to adapt like this to time based data.
timeless data patterns do not overlap ever. i don't have that problem. good questions i was about to exile you to the ignore list. not kidding, all you trolls could get out from under your bridges if you used your brain instead of your mouth and bullying.
mark
If that is indeed the case, and not mere hyperbole, then do you go all in at each and every trade, since the worst possible outcome, according to you, is to break even? And if not, then why not, especially when trading a market as liquid as ES?
Words have meaning, Mr. Brown, so please forgive those of us who wish to hold you to them. And as I noted before, it would be gratifying to know what kind of return on equity you are generating with the remarkable accuracy you are reporting.
with all due respect, it sounds to me like what you have is not a precise understanding of what price will do next, but a setup with a very high win rate, but in order to achieve this high win rate, the occurrence of this setup is quite rare. the fact that you talk about a 3 point bar (in the ES), tells me that you aren't exactly forecasting the future direction of price, but rather taking advantage of one buying or selling wave.
I have been called a troll before, and rather unjustly because all I was doing was asking for more evidence given extraordinary claims being made. I'm intelligent enough that a complex idea I will understand if it is explained properly. I find often that when someone lashes out at someone else when an explanation is requested on some foreign and complex concept, it is usually the person making the claim that has something to hide. At the very least, a further explanation could be tried. Of course there are trolls out there who never listen and already have an agenda, but that's a whole other issue.
well it seems that the mod here will not allow me to post anymore charts because mark brown is promoting his web site. so you will have to just imagine what you might have seen. [picture of highly successful trading model right here but not displayed for being accused of promotion lol] i would suggest you read all my highly touted threads in the et hall of fame. oops was that self promotion without paying baron a fee. he should be paying me to post here like he does jack and marketsurfer.
remember when i said: liquidity and placement in the queue and order type all play as factors to overcome when trading every pattern. so i have 1500 contracts to get off at a whack i want to make sure i can do that and it isn't happening on a tick chart so the bigger you trade the more room you need. but how would you know that if i didn't tell you of course.
make no mistake you have troll traits and would even make a good mod for baron. since you are accusing me of hiding something. yea i am hiding the exact code to do this with whereas in the old days i would post it for the benefit of all. but pigs and pearls come to mind.
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well if you have 1500 contracts to unload, this is certainly quite the system. but I still don't understand why, if you have a precise understanding of what the market will do, that you need to unload so quickly and for only a few points. if you consider that the average range of the ES is what... 10-15 points... you're capturing only 20-30% of this move. this would perhaps be excellent for the average TA trader, but this TA trader would say that he doesn't know what will happen next and hence would be very happy to get a chunk out of the move.
when I look at an hourly chart, and, at least in the NQ, I see a move up from 4460 on Nov 16 and see it go up 200 points by Nov 19, I think wow... 200 points in a week, if only I knew it was going up from here I could have held on for this 200 points gain, it wouldn't much matter what my initial fill or exit is. that to me means you have a keen sense of understanding where price is going. don't get me wrong, if you really are trading 1500 contracts then you gotta be damn well sure of the immediate direction, even if for only a few minutes, but as you're starting to put more parameters to your initial claim of knowing exactly what will happen to price, some of the luster is a bit lost. are you only able to say where price will be in the next few minutes and only up or down 3 points, or can you call absolute tops and bottoms on the day and call a multi day move?
I don't think I started accusing you of anything. I just said there are many unknowns in your claim, and you admitted to this that you are first starting with the theory. It took a little while to get to where we are now, but it seems to me like what you are saying now is that you have a system that has a very high win rate (not sure of the number yet but its not 100% since you said you might break even), based on a pattern that doesn't come up very often, but when it does, you can go in for 1500 contracts, and you're targeting roughly 3 ES points. (you of course didn't say how many points, but since you were talking about a 3 point ES bar, this is what I'm going with)
Trust me, I'm not asking you for the code, nor would I know what to do with it. I'm just trying to figure out how you view price given that time isn't a factor, and where your entries and exits would be if you say that you have a precise understanding of where price is going next.
i don't screw around i go to market with all my orders. i have built that into the system so i know i can get done. we are not talking about daily events here most my trades are at overlapping session times.
when you trade small lots you need big move you have to know i knew that already. what you cant seem to accept is yes i know what the immediate direction will be "i know". what you are criticizing me about is not after the trade is placed it's prior to the trade the pattern forms when it is complete "i know what will happen" until then yea i'm along for the ride just like you - no superman suit there - you happy i'm human. if you took a better tone with me i might post pictures at one of those picture hosting sites - but i fear that might be construed as promoting yet another site you know after all i might own the picture hosting site as well. such foolishness.
you have unknowns to my claim because you have treated me poorly, not because i have an unwillingness to tell you. but when you shoot the guy giving you the ammo, he might get unmotivated to give you anymore ammo. duh so keep wishing for answers or change your tone with me.
i can't provide the proof that you want on this forum due to rules that i am self promoting.
honestly, I do not feel as if I have been treating you poorly. don't forget, I started posting in this thread because I thought that you treated FF poorly. if you can point to any of my words or phrases that you think show I have treated you poorly, I would love the opportunity to apologize, but all I've done is question, and you even said yourself that I was in fact asking great questions.
as for linking pictures, I have no idea what baron's stance is on this. I do know though that if you really wanted to post pictures, you can do so right in your message reply, have the picture hosted here at ET, and not worry about having anyone else host the picture, thereby eliminating any self promotion stuff that you fear.
I know that you don't have to capture a huge chunk of the move in order to make a huge chunk of money. @Handle123 on here says over and over again that his system targets 8-12 ticks I believe in the ES on a fairly significant number of contracts. But I don't imagine he would ever say that he knows exactly where price will go. In fact, I believe that when wrong, he even averages down, having lots of confidence in his system and what his immense collection of pattern stats tell him, but the key difference is that I don't think he would ever say that price will for sure do this.
Honestly, in my opinion, you have gone from being very vague with an extraordinary claim initially, to now revealing a little more, but saying that I'm attacking you so this why you aren't sharing. Its almost like you're finding someone else to blame for why you won't post something that you didn't intend to post.
Most people here are skeptics because the so called experts only drop little hints without the so called follow through, or any proof of their system working. The general excuse is that they aren't here to teach or give away their methodology and all that is fine and dandy, but the onus of proof is always on the person making the extraordinary claim. If you really claim to want to help, please share something more tangible. Its just as easy to make claims about trading via Astrology and if questioned, back down saying the trolls have soured your mood.
Getting back to the issue at hand.. is time necessary? Well, if the market rejects a key level and starts moving to another level, does it matter how long it takes? Not really, because its more than likely to eventually get there, never mind how long it takes or the path to get there. Likewise, price can rise or fall on low or high volume, so perhaps volume doesn't matter as much either. I wouldn't say that time and volume don't matter, but what matters to me the most is price, since going from one price to the next is where the money is made or lost. So if you can show how you can bang out definite predictions for price movement, I'm all eyes.