Systems I am working on

Contracts roll over so you don't need to test monthly contracts at a time.
20-30 trades in sample is a fun curve fit but has zero meaning when it comes to trading.
 
Quote from d08:

Contracts roll over so you don't need to test monthly contracts at a time.
20-30 trades in sample is a fun curve fit but has zero meaning when it comes to trading.

What do you mean by that?

The contract is only the most active for a one month period. You can only really evaluate this on the active contract as the volume and data is way to spotty on an out month contract.

Unless someone has patched together data of active months you have to do one month at a time. Even if it was patched together at the seams it would be useless as either the contango or backwardation would make those joints useless.

I can apply the system to data of any contract. But again if I was to for instance apply it an old contract, the only time the data would really be relevant is the one month or so when the volume is active.

AT any time these systems will need to moved from contract to contract on a monthly basis so evaluating them on a monthly basis would seem correct as well.

For example if you look at the results above you will see that I did apply it to an out month contract and have data in that sample of eight months. It only did 36 trades in that eight month period as the data is so thin as that is not an active contract.

What I need is the data for the active period on a slew of old contracts. The evaluation will still only be relevant when that contract is in its active periodor approx 1-2 months preceeding expiration. Again, if one were using these systems that is how they would be applied, for a one-two month period preceeding expiration.
 
Quote from drbob101:

Brent for 05/06/07/08/09 contracts

Performance Results for brent 13/06 Range .75 D System bobscrude
From 4/11/2013 11:22 to 5/16/2013 16:33

Gross Profit 11.88
Gross Loss -4.11
Net 7.77
Profit Factor 2.89

Total Trades 28.00
Total Winning Trades 21.00
Total Losing Trades 7.00
Average Points per Trade 0.2775
Percent Profitable 75.00

Largest Winning Trade 1.82
Largest Losing Trade -0.6800
Average Winning Trade 0.5657
Average Losing Trade -0.5871
Ratio Average Win/Average Loss 0.9635
Average Trade 0.2775

Max Consecutive Winners 5.00
Max Consecutive Profit 2.75
Max Consecutive Losers 2.00
Max Consecutive Draw Down -1.18

Maximum Open Interest 1.00
Maximum Open Interest Average 1.00

Performance Results for cl 13/07 Range .75 D System bobscrude
From 4/12/2013 14:14 to 5/29/2013 13:33

Gross Profit 14.59
Gross Loss -4.17
Net 10.42
Profit Factor 3.50

Total Trades 29.00
Total Winning Trades 22.00
Total Losing Trades 7.00
Average Points per Trade 0.3593
Percent Profitable 75.86

Largest Winning Trade 3.73
Largest Losing Trade -0.7100
Average Winning Trade 0.6632
Average Losing Trade -0.5957
Ratio Average Win/Average Loss 1.11
Average Trade 0.3593

Max Consecutive Winners 8.00
Max Consecutive Profit 6.06
Max Consecutive Losers 2.00
Max Consecutive Draw Down -1.23

Maximum Open Interest 1.00
Maximum Open Interest Average 1.00

Performance Results for brent 13/08 Range .75 D System bobscrude
From 9/21/2012 19:36 to 5/29/2013 19:28

Gross Profit 36.77
Gross Loss -8.60
Net 28.17
Profit Factor 4.28

Total Trades 58.00
Total Winning Trades 44.00
Total Losing Trades 14.00
Average Points per Trade 0.4857
Percent Profitable 75.86

Largest Winning Trade 4.01
Largest Losing Trade -0.7500
Average Winning Trade 0.8357
Average Losing Trade -0.6143
Ratio Average Win/Average Loss 1.36
Average Trade 0.4857

Max Consecutive Winners 14.00
Max Consecutive Profit 11.57
Max Consecutive Losers 2.00
Max Consecutive Draw Down -1.35

Maximum Open Interest 1.00
Maximum Open Interest Average 1.00

Performance Results for brent 13/09 Range .75 D System bobscrude
From 11/28/2012 13:49 to 5/29/2013 19:28

Gross Profit 26.11
Gross Loss -7.52
Net 18.59
Profit Factor 3.47

Total Trades 44.00
Total Winning Trades 31.00
Total Losing Trades 13.00
Average Points per Trade 0.4225
Percent Profitable 70.45

Largest Winning Trade 3.83
Largest Losing Trade -0.7200
Average Winning Trade 0.8423
Average Losing Trade -0.5785
Ratio Average Win/Average Loss 1.46
Average Trade 0.4225

Max Consecutive Winners 4.00
Max Consecutive Profit 6.05
Max Consecutive Losers 2.00
Max Consecutive Draw Down -1.43

Maximum Open Interest 1.00
Maximum Open Interest Average 1.00

hi drbob ,

have you tried this method on other contracts ? Is it specific to this spread only ?

I have developed as well, seen the method work then erode over some time. I would love to collaborate with you if you have interest.
 
I don't mean to sound offensive but you seem to be quite new to all this.
Do a search for "continuous contract". That's the only proper way to do this type of backtesting.
 
Quote from d08:

I don't mean to sound offensive but you seem to be quite new to all this.
Do a search for "continuous contract". That's the only proper way to do this type of backtesting.

Ninja and IB no roll or continous- I think NT just Merges them tho if you set the backtest as such-
 
Quote from d08:

I don't mean to sound offensive but you seem to be quite new to all this.
Do a search for "continuous contract". That's the only proper way to do this type of backtesting.

Im not new to trading at all. 15+ years. As I said above, continuous data would be erroneous as the seam between contracts would render it useless with the contango and backwardation that exist in crude every month. The system would triiger false signals on the gaps that would exist at the seams? Understand?

The way to test this has to be individual contract data , not merged. I need contract data for a number of months. As far back as possible would be great. But not seamed.
 
Quote from trilogic:

Ninja and IB no roll or continous- I think NT just Merges them tho if you set the backtest as such-

Again merged data is useless. I going to reserach getting some old contract data.
 
Quote from trilogic:

hi drbob ,

have you tried this method on other contracts ? Is it specific to this spread only ?

I have developed as well, seen the method work then erode over some time. I would love to collaborate with you if you have interest.

Hi It is not a spread. It is on individual crude oil contracts. The stats there specify which. Some are on Brent and some are on WTI
 
Ninja certainly can do a continuous backadjusted contract - in theory.

In practice, every-time I connect to any variation of IQfeed (that is, Kinetick end-of-day, or Kinetick/IQfeed live, even connecting to the server to download MarketReplay data), my rollover database get overwritten with their crap (for CL in particular, it is really full of shit, they know it and couldn't care less).

I am now saving the rollover database each time I update it, and I reload once I disconnect from any data server.
 
Quote from drbob101:

Im not new to trading at all. 15+ years. As I said above, continuous data would be erroneous as the seam between contracts would render it useless with the contango and backwardation that exist in crude every month. The system would triiger false signals on the gaps that would exist at the seams? Understand?

The way to test this has to be individual contract data , not merged. I need contract data for a number of months. As far back as possible would be great. But not seamed.

You might not be new to trading, but it certainly sounds like you are new to algo trading.

The answer is "merge backadjusted".
 
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