Quote from d08:
Contracts roll over so you don't need to test monthly contracts at a time.
20-30 trades in sample is a fun curve fit but has zero meaning when it comes to trading.
Quote from drbob101:
Brent for 05/06/07/08/09 contracts
Performance Results for brent 13/06 Range .75 D System bobscrude
From 4/11/2013 11:22 to 5/16/2013 16:33
Gross Profit 11.88
Gross Loss -4.11
Net 7.77
Profit Factor 2.89
Total Trades 28.00
Total Winning Trades 21.00
Total Losing Trades 7.00
Average Points per Trade 0.2775
Percent Profitable 75.00
Largest Winning Trade 1.82
Largest Losing Trade -0.6800
Average Winning Trade 0.5657
Average Losing Trade -0.5871
Ratio Average Win/Average Loss 0.9635
Average Trade 0.2775
Max Consecutive Winners 5.00
Max Consecutive Profit 2.75
Max Consecutive Losers 2.00
Max Consecutive Draw Down -1.18
Maximum Open Interest 1.00
Maximum Open Interest Average 1.00
Performance Results for cl 13/07 Range .75 D System bobscrude
From 4/12/2013 14:14 to 5/29/2013 13:33
Gross Profit 14.59
Gross Loss -4.17
Net 10.42
Profit Factor 3.50
Total Trades 29.00
Total Winning Trades 22.00
Total Losing Trades 7.00
Average Points per Trade 0.3593
Percent Profitable 75.86
Largest Winning Trade 3.73
Largest Losing Trade -0.7100
Average Winning Trade 0.6632
Average Losing Trade -0.5957
Ratio Average Win/Average Loss 1.11
Average Trade 0.3593
Max Consecutive Winners 8.00
Max Consecutive Profit 6.06
Max Consecutive Losers 2.00
Max Consecutive Draw Down -1.23
Maximum Open Interest 1.00
Maximum Open Interest Average 1.00
Performance Results for brent 13/08 Range .75 D System bobscrude
From 9/21/2012 19:36 to 5/29/2013 19:28
Gross Profit 36.77
Gross Loss -8.60
Net 28.17
Profit Factor 4.28
Total Trades 58.00
Total Winning Trades 44.00
Total Losing Trades 14.00
Average Points per Trade 0.4857
Percent Profitable 75.86
Largest Winning Trade 4.01
Largest Losing Trade -0.7500
Average Winning Trade 0.8357
Average Losing Trade -0.6143
Ratio Average Win/Average Loss 1.36
Average Trade 0.4857
Max Consecutive Winners 14.00
Max Consecutive Profit 11.57
Max Consecutive Losers 2.00
Max Consecutive Draw Down -1.35
Maximum Open Interest 1.00
Maximum Open Interest Average 1.00
Performance Results for brent 13/09 Range .75 D System bobscrude
From 11/28/2012 13:49 to 5/29/2013 19:28
Gross Profit 26.11
Gross Loss -7.52
Net 18.59
Profit Factor 3.47
Total Trades 44.00
Total Winning Trades 31.00
Total Losing Trades 13.00
Average Points per Trade 0.4225
Percent Profitable 70.45
Largest Winning Trade 3.83
Largest Losing Trade -0.7200
Average Winning Trade 0.8423
Average Losing Trade -0.5785
Ratio Average Win/Average Loss 1.46
Average Trade 0.4225
Max Consecutive Winners 4.00
Max Consecutive Profit 6.05
Max Consecutive Losers 2.00
Max Consecutive Draw Down -1.43
Maximum Open Interest 1.00
Maximum Open Interest Average 1.00
Quote from d08:
I don't mean to sound offensive but you seem to be quite new to all this.
Do a search for "continuous contract". That's the only proper way to do this type of backtesting.
Quote from trilogic:
hi drbob ,
have you tried this method on other contracts ? Is it specific to this spread only ?
I have developed as well, seen the method work then erode over some time. I would love to collaborate with you if you have interest.
Quote from drbob101:
Im not new to trading at all. 15+ years. As I said above, continuous data would be erroneous as the seam between contracts would render it useless with the contango and backwardation that exist in crude every month. The system would triiger false signals on the gaps that would exist at the seams? Understand?
The way to test this has to be individual contract data , not merged. I need contract data for a number of months. As far back as possible would be great. But not seamed.