I've just decided not to post my forecasts for any of the remaining pairs I follow, since I think they constitute analysis of at least moderate quality (even if no one else does), and regard it as kind of silly of me to post them here publicly for free rather than simply profit from them (hopefully) as an individual.
Swing Trading the Forex Market
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Thanks to the fundamental data/commentary on Friday, GBPJPY did NOT follow through on the bullish signals it registered previous to these events. This means that next week I will be watching for new/fresh bullish signals to re-enter long positions, since nothing has changed in terms of the pair's overall structure.
At this point, the Cable-Yen's overall disposition has changed, having turned bearish. Consequently, if or when it does resume a northbound trajectory, I might have to regard it as likely being only temporary, and ultimately be looking to short the pair for the more significant return/run.
In the meantime, USDCAD has seen its intermediate trend turn north, so ideally, the pair would allow traders to ride this leg of its journey up between 1.3592 and 1.3700, and then catch the bigger wave as it turns around to rejoin the primary price flow headed south. (Unfortunately, no pair is under any kind of obligation to be so cooperative.)
USDCHF has joined the U.S. dollar-Canadian dollar in displaying this same structure. So has USDJPY, except that its move hasn't yet been confirmed by the corresponding baseline(s). In all three cases, hopefully the pairs will climb significantly to provide traders with the real opportunity to benefit when their intermediate trends rejoin the dominant price flow headed south.
(EURGBP too appears to be attempting to counter its dominant price flow by turning north, though at this point, without much success.)
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EURUSD is now in my potential buy zone, and shall remain so all the way down to 1.0734. However, this excursion south has been sufficient to switch the pair's overall bias from bullish to bearish.
Consequently, if/when the buy signal sounds the alarm, and if I opt to enter a long position at that time, I will need to continue to monitor the rate and be prepared to reverse my position as soon as the intermediate price action reverses direction to join the dominant price flow in its fresh descent.
(The Cable-Yen is in a similar situation.)
Consequently, if/when the buy signal sounds the alarm, and if I opt to enter a long position at that time, I will need to continue to monitor the rate and be prepared to reverse my position as soon as the intermediate price action reverses direction to join the dominant price flow in its fresh descent.
(The Cable-Yen is in a similar situation.)
In the last 12 or so hours, the Euro pairs have opted to continue south.
USDCAD came as close as 1.3591, so I will now be watching for signs suggesting if and when it might be ready to renew its descent.
WAIT AND SEE
The Big Picture
I have pulled back to look at the overall scheme of things, pulling in graphics from longer-term charts configured a few months back... more specifically, taking into consideration four-month and two-week measures. The results suggest that in several cases, now is a time to merely sit on the sidelines and observe what happens...
AUDJPY is bullish from the two- and eight-week vantage points. It also appears to have room to fall only about another 100 pips or so before it runs into significant support levels down around 94.55 to 93.27. So then, it seems to me that logic would dictate to wait and see if there is some kind of massive fundamental influence that ultimately pushes the rate lower than this, in which case, the rational decision would be to go short; or if in the next week or two, the daily trend reverses direction and heads north again (which is what I would think is more likely) at which point, I would obviously go long.
Yes, AUDUSD bounced off a bearish four-month baseline, but the three- to six-day measures are all still bullish, with price sitting more-or-less at their corresponding support levels. So for now, I'm waiting to see if there are some type of fundamental factors that are going to push price below the six-day baseline, where it has refused to go so far. But even it that happens, weekly price flow is still bullish, so that I would need to continue observing to see what the rate does when it hits weekly support down around 0.6482 to 0.6413.
I would expect it to bounce north, giving me the go ahead to buy the pair. It is only if some kind of fundamental influence were so strong as to keep the rate headed south at that point that I would consider selling the pair to be the logical/rational thing to do.
All of the other eight pairs I follow are looking to be in similar wait and see situations/circumstances, so at the moment, there are really no buy or sell decisions I can make (if acting prudently) from a swing trading perspective.
(For example EURJPY has taken a significant dive, but the rate is very much overall bullish. So, it would seem that right now I am simply waiting around until the numbers give me the [inevitable] signal to buy.)
The Big Picture
I have pulled back to look at the overall scheme of things, pulling in graphics from longer-term charts configured a few months back... more specifically, taking into consideration four-month and two-week measures. The results suggest that in several cases, now is a time to merely sit on the sidelines and observe what happens...
AUDJPY is bullish from the two- and eight-week vantage points. It also appears to have room to fall only about another 100 pips or so before it runs into significant support levels down around 94.55 to 93.27. So then, it seems to me that logic would dictate to wait and see if there is some kind of massive fundamental influence that ultimately pushes the rate lower than this, in which case, the rational decision would be to go short; or if in the next week or two, the daily trend reverses direction and heads north again (which is what I would think is more likely) at which point, I would obviously go long.
Yes, AUDUSD bounced off a bearish four-month baseline, but the three- to six-day measures are all still bullish, with price sitting more-or-less at their corresponding support levels. So for now, I'm waiting to see if there are some type of fundamental factors that are going to push price below the six-day baseline, where it has refused to go so far. But even it that happens, weekly price flow is still bullish, so that I would need to continue observing to see what the rate does when it hits weekly support down around 0.6482 to 0.6413.
I would expect it to bounce north, giving me the go ahead to buy the pair. It is only if some kind of fundamental influence were so strong as to keep the rate headed south at that point that I would consider selling the pair to be the logical/rational thing to do.
All of the other eight pairs I follow are looking to be in similar wait and see situations/circumstances, so at the moment, there are really no buy or sell decisions I can make (if acting prudently) from a swing trading perspective.
(For example EURJPY has taken a significant dive, but the rate is very much overall bullish. So, it would seem that right now I am simply waiting around until the numbers give me the [inevitable] signal to buy.)
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EURUSD
The Euro-U.S. dollar saw its four-month price flow transition from bearish to neutral in September and then to slightly bullish last month. Everything else is bullish also, with the exception of the day-to-day and 2½-day trends; with the three daily candlesticks prior to today's driving the two-week temporal support measure downward. The fact that the current daily candle is green means I will now be very much on the alert for a buy signal (which is likely to trigger my entering a long position).
The Euro-U.S. dollar saw its four-month price flow transition from bearish to neutral in September and then to slightly bullish last month. Everything else is bullish also, with the exception of the day-to-day and 2½-day trends; with the three daily candlesticks prior to today's driving the two-week temporal support measure downward. The fact that the current daily candle is green means I will now be very much on the alert for a buy signal (which is likely to trigger my entering a long position).
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USDCAD
Unlike USDCHF, which has a bearish four-month price flow, the U.S. dollar-Loonie's four-month baseline is angled upward. Moreover, the rate bounced off two-week temporal support three days ago, so the only thing I am waiting for now to trigger my entering a long position is to witness candlesticks crossing above the weekly baseline (and possibly even an upward hook in the baseline itself).
Unlike USDCHF, which has a bearish four-month price flow, the U.S. dollar-Loonie's four-month baseline is angled upward. Moreover, the rate bounced off two-week temporal support three days ago, so the only thing I am waiting for now to trigger my entering a long position is to witness candlesticks crossing above the weekly baseline (and possibly even an upward hook in the baseline itself).
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Sunday | December 10, 2023 | 2:32 PM PST
The observations I made on Saturday and Sunday when reviewing my charts from last week seem to recommend that I try to take advantage of reversals in the three-hour price flow instead of giving so much of my attention to the eight-hour measures, while also being very cognizant of the typical three-hour price range levels along with the trajectory of the 20-minute baseline.
For example, I fully expect pairs like AUDJPY and EURJPY to climb from where they are now, but how many days am I going to have to wait before I see confirmation that this is actually happening? I think three hours is a more practical measure for taking advantage of relatively significant moves which occur on a daily basis.
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