Swing Trading the Forex Market

[expiated]

This is something I've never been able to do. But, I think I can now. And given that I'm not doing anything with my intraday system anymore other than trading it, I figured I'd go ahead and give it a try; recording entry and exit levels in this journal and noting the outcomes.

All the pairs I follow are in the middle of what I consider to be the appropriate trend, so I will be awaiting what I deem to be their reversals as the trigger to do the following:

buy AUDJPY
sell AUDUSD
buy EURGBP
buy EURJPY
sell EURUSD
buy GBPJPY
sell GBPUSD
buy USDCAD
buy USDCHF
buy USDJPY

 

[maxinger]

This must the the record number of Journals in the world.

Journal #45?

 

[expiated]

AUDUSD, EURUSD and USDCAD were the first three pairs to recommend action, the first at 0.6633, the second at 1.0974 and the last at 1.3586; having done so between four to eight hours ago...

As you can see, all three did so in a direction that is contrary to that of the dominant price flow. Accordingly, I cannot necessarily expect these two legs down and one leg up to continue for any extended period of time (though they can certainly do so if that is what they desire) and I must therefore be prepared to exit with profit as soon as the numbers suggest that their current runs are over (assuming that they have indeed even started).

The fourth pair to sound the alarm is GBPUSD at 1.2637. However, to enter a position at the most advantageous level requires that I wait for a pullback in the presently surging hourly price flow, so I am not going short this pair just yet.

 

[expiated]

The fourth pair to sound the alarm is GBPUSD at 1.2637. However, to enter a position at the most advantageous level requires that I wait for a pullback in the presently surging hourly price flow, so I am not going short this pair just yet.

This opportunity came when GBPUSD pulled back to 1.2678. The fifth pair to make the turn was USDJPY and the opportunity to enter a long position came when the rate pulled back to 147.19.

 

[expiated]

As you can see, all three did so in a direction that is contrary to that of the dominant price flow. Accordingly, I cannot necessarily expect these two legs down and one leg up to continue for any extended period of time (though they can certainly do so if that is what they desire) and I must therefore be prepared to exit with profit as soon as the numbers suggest that their current runs are over (assuming that they have indeed even started).

USDCAD began evidencing signs of weakness extremely early, leading me to opt to lock in my gains at 27 pips profit...

Since then, there is one other pair, AUDJPY, that looks to be making an effort to switch its day-to-day trajectory (in this case, from bearish to bullish). I'm therefore entering a long position at 97.86.

 

[expiated]

This opportunity came when GBPUSD pulled back to 1.2678. The fifth pair to make the turn was USDJPY and the opportunity to enter a long position came when the rate pulled back to 147.19.

I think these positions should be exited now on the basis of a reversal in the four-hour price flow, and in some cases, even a reversal in the eight-hour baseline.

Exiting GBPUSD at 1.2637 means a 41-pip profit. (However, the pair is not yet displaying the numbers to recommend buying it.) Exiting USDJPY at 148.12 equals 93 pips of profit at the most, but only if a trader got in right at 147.19, which is not at all likely. I must say however that the U.S. dollar-Japanese yen's eight hour baseline is still very bullish, so I will keep my eye on the pair to see if the four-hour price flow reverses course and heads north again.

Exiting AUDUSD at 0.6608 would offer about 41 pips of profit, but I'm inclined to hold on to this pair a little bit longer unless price climbs back up to 0.6627, at which point, I'd have to abandon the position at about break even, with a mere 5-pip return to put in my pocket.

Collecting the gains from EURUSD at 1.0905 equals almost a 70-pip return, and of course, I already locked in 27 pips of profit from USDCAD.

However, the "real" money will (hypothetically/theoretically) present itself when these intermediate trends signal that they are turning around to rejoin the dominant day-to-day trend (as AUDJPY, GBPJPY and USDCAD have already done).

The fact that I was able to trade profitably by entering positions sporting trajectories contrary to the slopes of their longer-term trends supports the suspicion I expressed in my original post that just maybe the measures and forecast models I'm now relying on have equipped me with what I require to find success even when swing trading...

The only other thing I want to see is how much greater the returns are (assuming this will be the case) when I turn around and begin trading with the dominant price flow.

UPDATE: The fresh new four-hour candlestick being painted by AUDUSD is starting off bullish, so I've decided to go ahead and exit this position NOW rather than wait to see what unfolds.

 

[expiated]

NUMERICAL PRICE PREDICTION (NPP) QUANTITIVE ANALYSIS:

Oh, what fun!

For the posts that follow (I don't have time to write them right now because they are probably going to be rather detailed) I'm going to pretend like I actually know what I'm talking about.

These forecasts will make use of numbers, graphs and algorithms to analyze data in an effort to gain insights into the potential direction of the market from a swing trading perspective. The idea will be to make informed decisions by relying on statistical models, market indicators and price patterns; thereby allowing me to spot trends, identify patterns and forecast market movements—enabling me to anticipate future price action based on historical data (i.e., predict the future with math).

 

[expiated]

AUDUSD

This pair switched from neutral to bullish roughly five weeks ago, 'round about October 10, 2023. It remains bullish at this time, so I will be looking to buy the pair (again) if or when the rate drops back down into the upper or lower (shaded) buy zones pictured above.

 

[expiated]

AUDJPY

This rate too remains decidedly bullish. However, with the big jump following the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers and Fed Chair Powell's speaking on Friday, price is already almost up into the first of two resistance levels.

Accordingly, I would like to see price drop back down to at least the first of three support levels, where I would feel more comfortable entering a long position. However, ideally, I would prefer to see it enter the middle support level before buying the pair (once again).

 

[expiated]

EURGBP

Of all the foreign currency pairs I follow, this one is perhaps the most difficult to trade...

After six weeks of being essentially range bound (in accumulation/consolidation) this week it suddenly decides to veer sharply to the south. So then, does this mean that next week it will execute a reversal followed by a monster rally? I honestly have no idea.

Consequently, I will be adopting a "wait and see" mindset.