Swing Trading the ARK Universe

Bad_Badness said:
IRDM all shares, GTC for BE placed. Earnings on 2/15
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I'm making the assumption that BE = Break Even
Can you explain the thinking behind this decision?
What happens if IRDM keeps dropping in price?
Are you going to hold thru earnings if price doesn't get back to breakeven?
By selling at BE the trade is now all risk with no reward.
 
Yes BE=Break Even or small profit

Sure,

Thinking? If we get a pop then take the risk off the table. Start over. Don't wait for profits. Just be done. Move on to something else, like QCOM.

Drops Lower? Probably going to.
1) It is now on an overshoot of the range. Could pop from here, hence get out.
2) Could test the recent multiweek low. Will watch that. No panic on an overshoot and will buy another 100-200, and put it at full allocation. Will wait for that though. Exit on the pop for a loss.
3) ARK will be buying and providing some support.
4) if it goes down way more and then really collapses, then will either need to hold longer term, and over allocate, and wait it out and go for larger time frame and range, and dead money in a fundamentally sound company.
5) In general, there are so many "backstops", I would be mildly surprised to not BE or make a small amount next week.

Earnings? I actually did not even check until this weekend. All of the above should happen before then. And all still applies. Earnings date, and mostly right before will just give action.

"By selling at BE the trade is now all risk with no reward". It happens. But I don't see much difference from having a profit, and then watching it go back to BE, i.e. all reward and no risk. I know it sounds wrong, but for the PL there is no difference.

PS: if you look at the other BE's same scenarios. In general, BE's are fine. Better to reduce the risk, and take the rewards. Move on. Goal is to take a lot of "single" and "double" hits, and few losses and a fair amount of BE's. Of course, one can really mess up with too many BEs and too little or too few rewards. Hence that is where the skill comes in.

PPS: Looking at the chart, seems like if I wanted to, I could go for a 40 target. On the daily, it is a classic 3 steps down to a double bottom. Even if I did not have a position now, I would probably take one here. I should at least dead cat bounce. Lots of support @ 33-32.
 
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Bad_Badness said:
Yes BE=Break Even or small profit

Sure,

Thinking? If we get a pop then take the risk off the table. Start over. Don't wait for profits. Just be done. Move on to something else, like QCOM.

Drops Lower? Probably going to.
1) It is now on an overshoot of the range. Could pop from here, hence get out.
2) Could test the recent multiweek low. Will watch that. No panic on an overshoot and will buy another 100-200, and put it at full allocation. Will wait for that though. Exit on the pop for a loss.
3) ARK will be buying and providing some support.
4) if it goes down way more and then really collapses, then will either need to hold longer term, and over allocate, and wait it out and go for larger time frame and range, and dead money in a fundamentally sound company.
5) In general, there are so many "backstops", I would be mildly surprised to not BE or make a small amount next week.

Earnings? I actually did not even check until this weekend. All of the above should happen before then. And all still applies. Earnings date, and mostly right before will just give action.

"By selling at BE the trade is now all risk with no reward". It happens. But I don't see much difference from having a profit, and then watching it go back to BE, i.e. all reward and no risk. I know it sounds wrong, but for the PL there is no difference.

PS: if you look at the other BE's same scenarios. In general, BE's are fine. Better to reduce the risk, and take the rewards. Move on. Goal is to take a lot of "single" and "double" hits, and few losses and a fair amount of BE's. Of course, one can really mess up with too many BEs and too little or too few rewards. Hence that is where the skill comes in.

PPS: Looking at the chart, seems like if I wanted to, I could go for a 40 target. On the daily, it is a classic 3 steps down to a double bottom. Even if I did not have a position now, I would probably take one here. I should at least dead cat bounce. Lots of support @ 33-32.
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Thanks for the explanation.
I don't know if I'd put a lot of faith in ARK providing support as ARK funds have had significant outflows.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out?
 
Weekend review:

HOOD Breaks out of range. Still holding*. Like the volume and intraday action. Bounced back from the barrier and then ran through it EOD
IRDM backstop held. Bought 100 shares at 33.73? on Thursday, once it held and was moving up. Now 600 shares @36.15. Bounced off trendline on good volume. Next week should tell a lot. 36-37 seems achievable and will exit there.

Like ARCH, NTLA, VERV, TWST. Will probably go into more on Monday.

* seems like things want to move, ala bull market, so going to hold more. e.g. PINS, NET, PLTR. So far in the would have, could have, should have, category, of trades missing good upside is: HOOD, TOAST, RPTX. So will start holding a bit longer and look for secondary moves before exiting.
 
HOOD Earnings: Beats estimates and now profitable. Seems firing on all cylinders, interest, AUM, Crypto.

Moving this swing trade holding out of the portfolio into another portfolio called: IPO Hold, where I collect IPOs in the first 12-24 months after debut. Also holding is 1200 shares of PATH @14.67.

So consider this "sold all 1500 shares @12.80" in afterhours trading. Cost basis was 10.72.
 
Bought 100 IRDM @ 32.78. BTW: Had a GTC order to sell all @ 36.42, but high was 36.3x
People are selling, so will hold this one, earnings were OK, but not good enough. Now fully allocated 700 shares at 35.69.

Sold PINS @36.27 for BE++. Taking a position (1000 shares) in another portfolio for long term hold.

So now holding IRDM (700) and RPTX(2000). BTW: going to Japan for 3 weeks starting Tuesday so will be sporadic. Competing in https://www.ikyf.org/worldtaikai2024/index.html.
 
Weekend Review:
Earning market action has Big Move up, Big Move down opportunities. Such as it is in the ARK universe.

Big Up: TOST, HOOD, PLTR, RPTX, TTD, CERS
Big Down: IRDM, ROKU, PACB
Both: PINS, RKLB

Intermittent trading next 3 weeks, so will let:

IRDM 700 @ 35.69 ride with GTC for BE. After that will decide for size of loss probably. I.e. Time limit is up.
RPTX 2000 at 7.55. GTC order at $8.7x for top of channel, that is channel is rotating toward neutral, flat trend. This one is probably best traded as "take the fast money, now!" type trading.

I like the volume profile for NTLA, TWST and KIND. Might accumulate next week before departure and let it ride. For sure if RPTX goes PL++

Differently, like SQ. Consolidation mode, after good move up. Probably the one to buy for next 3 weeks, stable movements. <$65 is good enough entry, then sit on it.

There is a lot more to trade: RKLB, GENI, SOFI


Traded but moved to another portfolio:
HOOD is BO mode. Increased position to 2500 @11.69. Let it ride. All things being equal, probably, more time => more money. Might behave like PATH.
PINS consolidation mode. let it ride. 1000 @35.54
 
Back from Vacation.

IRDM still down. Tried for another leg down but is small so far.
RPTX down. Take the next pop close to BE

Ark Universe. Continues to sell COIN. Have to Sell Hood with an * aka forced sale due to allocation limit. I added and then doubled my $ position in the "IPO Hold" portfolio. Also took an PINS position, but am going to exit for cash, since it is not really an IPO anymore, and was a placeholder for cash.

ARK bought a large position in ICE. and META. Probably good bets for "cash" position. ARK bought a VERY VERY small position in RDDT. A placeholder for that fund.

They continue to accumulate U, a lot in multiple funds. Common range test recovery pattern. Seems to be tracking the SPY-ES up down days? I have not checked.

Check the charts on TWST and PD. Test of the range and recovering. Might take new positions for the week, but heading off for a week. PTSG was a range test-recovery entry 2 days ago. If it pulls back for a retest, that is an entry for a top of range (minus a point) target, for those who where snoozing like me.

ARK goes back into RBLX. Same recovery pattern.

RDDT IPO WATCH is now "ON". Looking for how the holders sell into the next 3 months. Entry is AFTER the hype is gone and maybe has a "hang over" moment. Oh and watch how ARK plays it.
 
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Bought 2000 RPTX @ 3.33 now at 90% full allocation. Will continue to hold the losers and wait for the entire market to turn. Since the allocations are all manageable, there is no need to sell.
 
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