swing-day trading US stocks

Market commentary for 12/15/2006

Good day!
We finally saw some action yesterday morning. The QQQQ had a gap up while other Indices had a flat open. On the daily chart we can see that Indices broke the daily patterns (triangles) and made a nice strong run up in the morning. That was nice breakout, but unfortunately that was all what we saw from market yesterday. If some of you remember my market commentary a few days ago I said leave the first move alone in any direction and I will be interested in a continuation after good pattern. That is the case right now. In the room we had number of setups. Most of them finished breakeven or a small profit and or small loss, but a few gave us nice moves in our direction (NTY, ENI, ININ, AFFX etc). That is maximum what we can get from market now because that break up is on shaky legs. On the QQQQ 60 min chart that previous high is still resistance and the daily chart remains strong resistance. The breakout yesterday we saw average volume and that concerns me. The SPY and the DIA saw a new yearly high and I would like to see much higher volume in that situation. Today is the triple option expiration day so the move up may be a false breakout and I do not trust it.
Because of reasons above and because of intraday action (whippy) from triple option day, I will stay with same tactics for today. Small lots, small risk and fast profit for day traders, and I will also look to exit most of swing without acceptable daily action.
Please know that today I will be cautious with new calls and that on most of triple options days I don’t trade at all. In the morning I will look for move up.
When we see whippy intraday action a good way to avoid stops is to trade with bigger stop amounts than usual so you can avoid whippy action. You also need to be faster with profits. That kind of trading reduces your r/r opportunities and that is one of reasons I usual don’t trade.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12152006qqqq.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12152006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12152006spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12152006spy60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12152006dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12152006dia60.jpg


Watch list for 12/15/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LONG:

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
PETM long above: 30.00, stop under: 29.75, target: 30.50 (31) areas DT http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12152006petm.jpg

SWKS long above: 7.60, stop under: 7.45 (7.50), target: 8.00 areas DT-ST http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12152006swks.jpg

SHORT:

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
AEM short under: 42.00, stop above: 42.50, target: 40 areas DT http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12152006aem.jpg

SIL short under: 15.80, stop above: 16.06, target: 15 areas DT-ST http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12152006sil.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 10, 2006

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12152006ttwo.jpg

Short:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12152006cake.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12152006orcl.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

Tracking records:

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/dwl122006.htm - for December
 
Be with us this Tuesday in the trading room. New class will be about trading plan and market action. This is last class what we had and if you like this class don’t miss next.


Whole picture

Another part of the big picture is what we call trading success. I have said before knowing just one area of trading isn't enough to be a profitable trader. It is very important to learn the basic skills. Without those your advantage in the market will not be clear. This is one of a trader’s largest mistakes. They go from the start with advantage indicators and styles however without a basic market understanding they all lose money.
The whole picture as technical analysts we must view all time frames for a trade and then decide what is interesting or has potential. If we know where the support/resistance areas are and if we know how to use them then on whole picture we will see if we can make reasonable trading plan with good risk/reward opportunity.
I will go over several examples to explain what I mean by whole picture.

CCJ
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/CCJ.jpg
This page shows the intraday charts (5, 15, 30, 60 min), the daily and weekly chart. On CCJ daily chart you can see the triangle pattern after the move down from the daily highs. That triangle consolidation is an opportunity to take a possible continuation on daily chart. On the weekly chart you can see that CCJ has room without larger support before 100sma and 30 as the whole number support area. That is an area the will be good to use as a possible target. Let us now look at the smaller time frames to see if we can see good intraday setup. On the 5 min chart you can see 3rd try triangle and consolidation before 3rd try was broken. That is reason why setup was under 33.10. On the 15 and 30 min you can see same triangle as on the 5 min chart but now with bigger stop. Since I expected CCJ could be a good swing trade and from previous action in the past on the daily chart it is a reasonable expectation that the stock will see 30 as a target area on the same day. We need to find a swing stop. Previous high on the 5/15 min happens many times and will be to small, because of that I go on bigger intraday time frames and if setup pace will go nice I will move stop. In CCJ case you can see on the 30 min that I used previous high as stop. In that case the triangle action will be broken and will not be of any value anymore. And the trading plan will be broken. That is reason why stop is above 33.50. Unfortunately CCJ didn’t see target area and our exit was at 31.85, but that was still great risk reward too. With 40 cents of risk we got $1.25 gain.
CIG
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/CIG.jpg
CIG was bear trap pattern. In a bull market that is always good opportunity for a nice risk/reward opportunity. Before I go into that trade I want to see bigger time frame situation. On the weekly chart you can see that CIG had room until 46 resistance area. On the daily charts we saw nice consolidation under 45 areas and with bull trap power that can be trigger for breakout. So bigger time frames gave enough room for good risk/reward. First setup on bear trap pattern is above 5 min high. That is the reason why the setup was above 44 with stop under 43.80. If you plan to be in fast trade or day trade then stop can be moved very fast. Since there was enough room for bigger move up I used that setup for swing possibility. In that case 20sma on 30 or 60 min chart is good stop area for start. You can see on the charts how that can support area can hold. Our exit was around 46.10, so with 20 cents of risk we got around $2 of gain. Risk/reward was around 7.5. I’m sure that this trade must cover number of stop loss trades.
UNH
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/UNH.jpg
Same situation is with UNH. On weekly chart is in triangle pattern. On the daily chart you can see that is continuation of bull trap what can only help. So we have room for bigger move down. On intraday charts I saw nice 30 min triangle. One of my favorite setups, 3rd try triangle. The setup was under 47.50, with stop above 48 as previous 30 min high, and we got r/r around 4.
VAL
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/VAL.jpg
VAL is another example. Nice weekly triangle and also nice daily triangle. That can already bring lower stop.
Setup was above 27, with stop under 26.70 (20sma 60 min), and with 30cents of risk we got $2.20, what was 6.29 risk/reward.
VSEA
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/VSEA.jpg
On VSEA I like 60 min 3rd try triangle. On the weekly and daily charts there was enough room for move up, but that wasn’t good swing chart, so I used VSEA only for day trade possibility. Since that was idea only for day trade I used 15 min 20sma as support area and setup was above 41 areas with stop under 40.75 and exit area was 42 areas. Again with small risk we got nice reward, around 3.

Whole idea is that with smaller time frame setup I can get a bigger move. Of course it must also be logical. You can't have a trading plan for a swing move on a 1min chart. Sometimes that can happen, but most of time not. We can go with the 5 min setup and finish with swing trade. All depends on intraday action, and in that case the first trading plan is for day trade and then depend on pace and action we must make new trading plan for swing trade.
Whole picture is very important part to be profitable trader. On this way good risk/reward trade will cover several loss trades and at the end of month trader can be profitable with negative number of positive trades.
 
Market commentary for 12/22/2006

Good day!
We saw another whippy day. However today we saw a nice intraday move down which helped our open trades. On the daily chart and on the intraday charts you can see that previous intraday and daily support held again on that move down. For the QQQQ that means the 50sma on the daily chart, for the SPY the 20sma and for the DIA it is 10sma on the daily chart. The same support area which we saw at the begin of this week. We still haven't seen any real change this week. Only the QQQQ has made a new lower low. We still need a longer time of consolidation on the weekly charts. Perhaps today and next weeks shortened trading week we will get that. Today I don't expect anything except a low volume pre holiday trading day. Stay with the same trading action as the few last days. I will look for intraday moves, and generally, I will stay more on the short side. But with caution, smaller risk and small number of trades.

I will use this opportunity to wish you all safe, happy and peaceful holiday. I also wish you much success and happiness for the new year.

Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12222006qqqq.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12222006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12222006spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/122206spy60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12222006dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12222006dia60.jpg

Watch list for 12/22/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
KOF long above: 37.80, stop under: 37.47, target: 40 areas ST http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12222006kof.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 27, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
IWOV long above: 14.50, stop under: 14.20, target: 15 areas DT – 15.50 areas ST http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12222006iwov.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 26, 2006

SHORT:

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
LEN short under: 51.13, stop above: 51.50, target: 50 areas DT-ST
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12222006len.jpg
Last/next earning date: Sep 26, 2006

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
Happy Holidays

First, I wish you peaceful, happy and blessing Christmas. Hope you will have nice time with your family and in case that anyone don’t celebrate Christmas, I wish you happy and peaceful Monday.

Ivica Juracic
 
Market commentary for 12/27/2006

Good day!
Yesterday as expected was a low volume day, which is also expected for the rest of the week. With a flat open we got one chance for an intraday move and that was at the open. The rest of the day was very slow. We also had a small intraday move up the 30 minutes (last reversal period) before close. The low volume brought additional risk with it. Despite the poor market action, we had a good day in the room with POT and VSEA. Using smaller risk allowed us to stay in and profit from these trades. By not overtrading, we didn't help the brokers profit but still had a nice day.
On the 60 min charts, you can see how the previous support areas are now resistance areas and that was exactly what stopped the DIA and the SPY move up late. The QQQQ is still under 20sma 60 min and that is the first test. I will not be in the room today, but I will expect to see move up in the morning but I will not be surprised if that will be all for long side. Remember to limit risk with the very slow unpredictable market for the rest of the week.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12272006qqqq.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12272006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12272006spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/122706spy60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12272006dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12272006dia60.jpg

Watch list for 12/27/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
KOF long above: 37.80, stop under: 37.16, target: 40 areas ST http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12272006kof.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 27, 2006

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
BID short under: 31.17, stop above: 31.56, target: 30 areas ST
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12272006bid.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 09, 2006

Watch ideas:
Long:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12272006sle.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12272006blud.jpg

Short:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12272006alxn.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Tracking records:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/dwl122006.htm - for December

I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions and if you need more informations
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
 
Market commentary for 12/29/2006

Good day!
Another low volume trading day with mostly range action that can be seen on the 60 min charts.
The DIA touched slight higher high and came back to the 60 min range while the QQQQ just did nothing.
I expect even less today. Perhaps some tax loss selling but nothing to hang our hats on.
When I look at the QQQQ charts, my bias is for the down side however looking at the DIA my bias is for the up side. That is an easy way to say we have a divergence in the market. That also brings higher risk.
I will go with market and I will stay with the same tactic as I have the last few days. That is a small number of trades and smaller lots. It is important to preserve trading capital for the time when the market gives us a direction. Get ready for the New Year, we don't need to screw up our confidence and emotions with a bad day. Don’t forget that cash is position too.
So trade smart and go with good feelings to your New Years party and into a new trading week.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12292006qqqq.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12292006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12292006spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/122906spy60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12292006dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12292006dia60.jpg

Watch list for 12/29/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LONG:
Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
PMI long above: 48.00, stop under: 47.75, target: 48.50-49 areas DT
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12292006pmi.jpg

SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
BEAS short under: 12.56, stop above: 12.67, target: 12 areas ST
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12292006beas.jpg
Last/next earning date: Feb 22, 2007

Watch ideas:
Long:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12292006schw.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12292006pru.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12292006bsg.jpg

Short:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12292006flr.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12292006hog.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/12292006fmcn.jpg

Tracking records:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/dwl122006.htm - for December

I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions. ivica@ivicacharts.com
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
 
Here is my gift to all, something what every trader must understand, something what every trader must REALY understands. One of my mentoring classes.

I wish to take this opportunity to wish you all a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year

Ivica Juracic



Market action & Trading Plan

This is a very important subject. A successful trader should have a trading plan before they enter any trade. Generally that means a solution for every possible scenario. Whatever you trade (futures, stocks, commodities, equities) you should have a trading plan. Everyday I give you a watch list. You can see I include an entire trading plan. I like to do that after market is closed because at that time I can concentrate on making an objective trading plan. Since I trade using technical analysis my main tools are charts. When I find a chart that I like I continue with it and make a trading plan.

Every trading plan should include:

1 Entry
2. Stop
3. Partials (if is that part of your style)
4. Possible target area (something what you will look for exit)

First let me explain how the market works. I know this is really basic knowledge that most of you already know. I’m not sure that all of you have that in mind when you look for patterns. This is simple but most of traders forget this part. Whatever you trade everything has same action: move-rest-move. That is universal, that is the base for everything. If you accept that from start and if will keep that in mind you will see that everything after that is an upgrade on that basic knowledge and will continue to make sense. When trader really understands that, it is then he/she can trade with logic and use that knowledge in the future. If you will try to learn something without a foundation of knowledge you will not finish well.
I will try to explain it this way: let’s try to that move-rest-move action we change with numbers. First move is 1111111111, rest is 222222222 and continuation is 3333333.

Please open this chart: http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/class/OIexample.jpg

You can see that 11111111 is a move, 222222222 is rest (on this example that is a triangle) and 333333333 is a continuation move I will look for. This is a book example what I will look for and what every trade should look for whatever style that you use. Scalp, buying pullback, selling tops any style. All is same if you want trade with low risk setups. I saw a lot of different entries, but I want to NOTE again: I’m only focusing on low risk setups and I’m not interested in anything else. I don’t care about high risk entries methods, while they can be profitable you will not find them in my room.
Trader focus must be on whole action. Important is to 111111111 pace and volume, and from that we can look for expectations after 22222222 (pattern breakout). If 11111111 pace is strong with higher volume we like to see strong breakout because that will be prove about interest for that chart. If 111111111 pace is very slow then I will not be interested in that for that trade. All this is very important and I always have that in mind. It is logical that if move toward consolidation is slow, then there is no reason why I should expect a strong breakout.
These our tools, without them as technical analyst traders we can’t trade, when I say trade I mean low risk reasonable trading. We always can trade, but is that low risk trade is what we look for. What does 22222222 (rest, consolidation) give us? It gives us an opportunity to trade with small risk and with good risk/reward. If my stop is to big and my profit move to small then it is doubtful I will ever be a profitable trader. In this triangle example you can see that triangle becomes tighter and tighter and with that our stop amount is smaller and smaller. Again that is one of most important tools. Can you make a reasonable trading plan without pattern? There is no way to do that.
Ok now let’s back on the trading plan. Entry in this case and for me in every case is above previous high. On the OI daily chart that is above previous high in the triangle pattern as you can see on the chart. I always use previous high because for me that is a break proving itself. The same is for a flag or base action. I always use previous high for entry.
Stop. Stop is big part of trading plan. I don’t know any trader who wasn’t mad or sad when trade hit stop and he/she takes loss. That isn’t funny, but you must look at a stop with a different perspective. The stop is our best friend and stop keeps us from getting a large out of control loss. Without a stop our risk management (what is another big part of trading picture) would not be possible. Every trade you can break a rule and don't take a loss when price go under stop area. Sometimes that will be good because price could come back you will feel very smart and proud of yourself. That is completely the wrong feeling and wrong, that will always come and bite you very hard with a loss that hurts. I lost 90 percent of my account not taking a stop. So don’t look at a stop as your enemy, contrary think of it as your best friend in the trading plan. The number I use for stops is the previous low in the OI example. You can see that on the chart. But that is not the only way to use stops, I use all support/resistance areas for that. That can be a whole number, previous high/low or moving average support/resistance area. I use them for trailing stop too, when I move my stop with price action. It is very important to have entry and exit price before you take any trade. Without that you are blind because you can’t count your risk and without that you can spin circles and you won’t be ever be profitable trader. You must count your risk very carefully.
Partials are part of a trading plan but are not a set rule. You can use it or not depends on each and every trader. I don't use it. There are several ways to use partials. First you don’t want use it at all. You can take something out (30%, 50%, 70% depend on trader) when stop is covered. That mean if your stop is 35 cents when you are up 35 cents you will take partials. You can take partials when come to first resistance area (reversal for shorts), and you can ignore partials but when your stop is covered you just move stop to breakeven area. It is up to trader what he/she will use. Some like to take partials when a stop is covered if it is day trade. On swings it is better to look for resistance/support areas. It is all up to trader, but it is important that you feel good with your decisions, because your mind must stay clear at all times and that is very important. I don’t use partials, I use trailing stops to save my profit or cut my loss, but again that is up to trader. That way I have a number of small profit or breakeven trades. That is ok with me and I can live with that, but when I have target area when it gets that far I make most of my profits.

The Exit is probably the worst problem for traders. Did I go out to early or did I stay to long? How to find that? As you can see I really like to use equal move for targets, and of course at same time I watch for others support/resistance zones (whole number, ma's, pivots). Only using equal move is not important. You must have whole picture in your head. Like to repeat that again; whole picture in your head move-rest-move. The is the basic's and is a very important part of trading. Please ask questions if don’t understand that. It will be much easier to continue if all is understood. That is reason why I always have (when I scanning) on my screen monthly, weekly, daily, 60, 15 and 5 min chart. I want see any possible resistance/support. If I don’t see enough room for trade I won’t take that trade. There is enough opportunity to wait for a better chance.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/class/yhoo.jpg

On this chart you can see an equal move target. At same time there is a whole number resistance zone and that is reason why I was looking for 30 as the target zone. Now you can see that entry is above previous high, stop under previous low, partials when stop was covered (if you use partials) and target was at the equal move and the whole number. That was full trading plan. Without that I will not take the trade. If I start to change my trading plan that probably will not lead to success. The reason is it will not reflect my style and I will start to lose money. The plan can only be changed with reasons like trailing stop or poor pace. Now what happens if plan not work? Then you must research past (your journal) and see what happened. Why didn’t work? Did I mess with any part of my trading plan? Of course you won’t change plan after first stop.
When you learn to make reasonable trading plan you just need to use it. Very simply: make your plan and trade your plan. As a beginner you must avoid mistakes like to early an entry or to early of a stop. That will come with experience. You just need to trade your own plan. If not you will change that plan with reason, not with emotions.
 
Market commentary for 01/03/2007

Good day!
I wish to take this opportunity to wish you all a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year. The market last week did pretty much what we expected. Slow and trend less. With AAPL's good news the QQQQ started strong. By the end of the day the indices were slightly lower. Basically little change to the daily charts. The day started with strong move up, especially for the QQQQ.
At the end of the month, it is always good idea to analyze the bigger time frames on the charts. Perhaps we can find a clue as to what to expect at the beginning of the year. The monthly charts are telling us that market is holding a very nice uptrend, which started during the summer of last year. The QQQQ is weakest or rather the least strong index and right now is at previous high support area (resistance now become support) which can see on the weekly chart. The SPY and DIA held very well and for now. Unfortunately, we still do not see a low risk swing setup. The action on the daily charts we can expect a move up to the new highs but from the weekly charts you can see that we don’t have low risk setup. We still need a longer consolidation period. The DIA is the strongest index and I expect it will be the leader.
From the weekly charts we will need to see a longer consolidation (several months) for low risk setup and right now I can’t see that possibility. We can follow market as we have in the past and see what we will get. With start of the New Year swing traders will continue to have a harder time for low risk setups (unless you are in the own way trade).
With President Ford's funeral we have a three day trading week which will probably continue the holiday trading pattern. This is frustrating but we must show patience.
For reasons mentioned above, I don’t expect much from the market this week and if we start to get the weekly consolidation it will create a more difficult environment for trading. Trading during a consolidation phase is always more difficult than trading in a trend market. We will have our opportunities, we always do, but it will be harder to find them.
Once again, I want to wish all members a great and profitable New Year. I look forward being your daily destination to take advantage of all my services to become a better and more profitable trader.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/01032007compxmonthly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/01032007qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/01032007qqqq.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/01032007qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/01032007spymonthly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/01032007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/01032007spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/01032007spy60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/01032007diamonthly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/01032007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/01032007dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2006/01032007dia60.jpg


Watch list for 01/03/2007

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
KOF long above: 38.00, stop under: 37.16, target: 40 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01032007kof.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 27, 2006

SLE long above: 17.10, stop under: 16.90, target: 18 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01032007sle.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 07, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
LCAPA long above: 98.18, stop under: 97.40 (97.80), target: 100 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01032007lcapa.jpg
Last/next earning date:

SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
CKFR short under: 39.58, stop above: 41.00, target: 35 areas ST
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01032007ckfr.jpg
Last/next earning date: Jan 30, 2007

Watch ideas:
Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01032007schw.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01032007asf.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01032007skx.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01032007hog.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01032007sun.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01032007nem.jpg

I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
 
Market commentary for 01/08/2007

Good day!
After three weeks of holidays, we are entering a full trading week. I hope that will bring more truly action, because last weeks we saw whippy action without truly direction.
Friday was another day with the divergence between QQQQ on the one side, DIA and SPY on the other side. The QQQQ was stronger then others and finished week in the middle of the daily range. The SPY closed at daily support area what you can see on the chart, and the DIA broke daily pennant. Unfortunately, we still don’t have clear signal for any direction, what easily can see on the weekly charts. I will expect that we will start with weekly correction after few uptrend months, but until clear signal, we can expect that risk will remain higher. That means, swing traders will have harder time for low risk setups and best will be to stick with intraday moves for faster trades (day and scalp trades). The COMPX have previous high as support area (look at the weekly chart) and under that you can see that 20sma coming and it is close. 20sma is always a bigger support/resistance area. The SPY on the weekly chart is right at 10sma support area, and at 50sma daily support area. The DIA is at weekly trading channel support area.
The SPY and the DIA have more room for breaking down and correction move and that is move what I will look for that action today, and my bias is on the short side for today. I don’t expect for start that we will see strong break down, nothing like swing move down.
As usual, I will go with the market action and I will not increase the number of trades and risk in them. All will stay same until we will start with the clear direction
FREE class will be at Thursday 01/09/2007 at 12:00 pm ET in the trading room. Feel free to join us, this is continuation from last year in the education process: How to be a profitable trader.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007qqqqweekly.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007qqqq.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007dia60.jpg

Watch list for 01/08/2007

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:
Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

CYTC long above: 29.00, stop under: 28.75, target: 30 areas DT-ST
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007cytc.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 25, 2006

CTL long above: 44.00, stop under: 43.50, target: 45 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007ctl.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 02, 2006

SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
NCR short under: 42.34, stop above: 42.75 (42.60), target: 41 (40) areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007ncr.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 26, 2006

ETN short under: 74.28, stop above: 75.30 (75.00), target: 72 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007etn.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 16, 2006


Watch ideas:
Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007nty.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007alks.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007hans.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007nwl.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007czn.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/01082007ggg.jpg


Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/dwl122006.htm - for December

I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
danded2005@inet.hr
 
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