swing-day trading US stocks

Market commentary for 01/25/2007

Good day!
We had a very nice trading day yesterday. The divergence finally merged and after the morning gap up and consolidation the market started to move up. The DIA 60 min (Cup with handle) and the SPY (daily bull flag) intraday on the daily chart saw breakouts and that was trigger for buyers to came in. The QQQQ had a problem with its daily resistance areas (20/50sma resistance area) and when that resistance was broken the Q's didn’t have much of a problems for a nice intraday move up. The consolidation during lunch went well and after nice DIA and SPY 15/60 min consolidation we got another buying wave. Only QQQQ action after 14:00 reversal period was a disappointment. At least it stayed in a nice 15/30 min consolidation and that kind of action helped the SPY and DIA to continue the morning direction. The SPY saw a new daily high and the DIA is back to its daily high. The QQQQ stayed in the middle of its daily range.
For today I will stay on the bullish side and look for another move up, The charts show the indices have room for that. The QQQQ's first resistance is the 10sma daily, for the SPY 144.50 – 145 area and for DIA trading channel resistance area. I don’t see a swing move but I will expect long action in the morning. Since we are in the earning season maybe there will be gap or run up right at open. With Ebay trading up 10 percent after the close, I will expect that.
I will stay with intraday moves and intraday setups as lower risk setups. Something like we had in the room yesterday (FIS, GS, VTR, WLT, ACAS, UAUA, HLTH, MON, IVGN, ITWO etc.)
We had busy day yesterday in the room, and I will not expect the same action today. That is the way the market works and as a trader you must recognize that possibility.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007spy60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007dia60.jpg

Watch list for 01/25/2007

I found a number of possible trades. It is important to evaluate them after the market opens and see what action can be taken. I will bring some ideas to this daily list under "watch list". All of these ideas can be interesting as day trades and swing trades. Please don't over trade them especially if they set up at the same time. I recommend only taking trades that you really like and understanding.


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
JEF long above: 30.00, stop under: 29.50, target: 31-32 areas ST
Last/next earning date: Jan 18, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007jef.jpg

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
VPHM long above: 15.60, stop under: 15.45, target: 16-16.25 areas DT-ST Last/next earning date: Nov 02, 2006
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007vphm.jpg

FMX long above: 120.00, stop under: 119.50, target: 122.50 DT-ST
Last/next earning date: Oct 27, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007fmx.jpg

SGR long above: 34.00, stop under: 33.55, target: 35 areas DT
Last/next earning date: Jan 10, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007sgr.jpg

Watch ideas:
Long:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007ryl.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007drs.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007lbtya.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007dtv.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007hans.jpg

Short:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007kft.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01252007hot.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Tracking records history:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/dwl012007.htm - for January

Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
ivica@ivicacharts.com
 
Market commentary for 01/29/2007

Good day!
Friday action was exactly as we expected. After a small gap up at the open the Indices weakened. Daily support held and for the rest of the day we saw consolidation (rest) which the market needed after two weak days. QQQQ stayed in the daily range area. The SPY touched 50sma daily support area and bounced from that area to daily 20sma support area, while DIA trend line support area held.
Pace from daily highs was strong and I will look for longer correction after several uptrend months. We had higher volume on the selling side.
We are still in earning season and we can see gaps every day. However, with the action the last two days it will be hard to see the SPY or DIA hit new daily highs anytime soon. Unfortunately we still don’t have swing short signal and we could easily see several weeks of consolidation without a trend, This is something we already have on the QQQQ daily chart.
Generally I will look for short side with my bias is being short and I will look for further correction during the next few weeks. In that case it is important to monitor pace so we can measure the strength of the market.
I will continue to follow market and my focus will be on strongest stocks for long and weakest for shorts.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007spy60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007dia60.jpg


Watch list for 01/29/2007

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
WPI long above: 26.73, stop under: 26.40, target: (27.50 DT) 29 areas ST Last/next earning date: Nov 07, 2006
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007wpi.jpg

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
PLCM long above: 33.06, stop under: 32.70 (32.90), target: 35 areas DT-ST Last/next earning date: Jan 24, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007plcm.jpg

SHORT:
Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
LOOP short under: 16.70, stop above: 17.00, target: 16.00 areas DT-ST
Last/next earning date: Feb 07, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007loop.jpg

LAZ short under: 49.82, stop above: 50.14 (50.50), target: 48 areas DT-ST
Last/next earning date: Feb 07, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007laz.jpg

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007hlth.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007idcc.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007frt.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007sfi.jpg

Short:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007intc.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007lrcx.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007feic.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007mot.jpg

Tracking records history:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/dwl012007.htm - for January

I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
ivica@ivicacharts.com
 
Market commentary for 01/30/2007

Good day!

Monday was an exercise of patience. The morning action brought a move up in the market, which I did not trust, and it wasn't something that I would trade. We did have a couple of longs trades in the room that worked out well. I don't trust this move because of the daily resistance overhead and the pace was very weak. The QQQQ at the end of the day did show some strength and all that evaporated with the 13:00 ET reversal period. 10/20/50 SMA on the daily chart reflect a large resistance for QQQQ and all are close overhead. The SPY and the DIA have resistance in 10sma on the daily chart (brown line). Overall the day did not show much change from Friday's close. The DIA and SPY each closed under 20sma support area we didn’t see much action on the daily chart. The SPY does have support at the 50sma and it is very close.

I don’t see clear setup on daily chart, but I will expect to see more weakness in future days and today 15 min bear flag can help in that. I will look for longer weekly correction and that will be focus. In the mean time I will follow market action as usual. Swing traders still have harder time and I will remain with same risk here. Best way is to start with smaller risk and if swing trade going good then always can add position on next 30/60 min setup. Bias for today in the morning is on the short side.

This week stocks continue with earnings, plus two big news events with the Fed on Wednesday and the jobs report before the market opens. These events can alter the mood of the market dramatically so be careful.

Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007spy60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007dia60.jpg
 
Market commentary for 01/31/2007

Good day!
We saw a very slow trading day. The indices were trendless and the pace was very slow providing a high risk environment. Normally after a narrow range day (NR7) we can look for a trend day but because of the Fed we will have to wait till after their decision. Normal Fed days are slightly up in the morning and consolidation over noon.
After the Fed decision, we can expect whippy high risk action. I generally do not trade after the decision. There are generally three waves each reversing the prior direction.
Since my main occupation is to find low risk setups with good risk/reward possibility this is not the action I will use for my trading and until market action settles down I will just watch and I will use patience. It is recommended that all day trades or smaller time frame trades be closed prior to the announcement. I personally will close all those type trades before 2:15 pm.
Generally, my focus is still on short side and I will look for further market correction. Action after the FED announcement can easily go in any direction and as usual I will follow market. Thursday will probably be another "skitzo" day with the Job report before the market opens on Friday.
Since today is “FED day” and I will expect slow market action, during market hours in the trading room I will talk about important stuffs like: how to start? What need to watch? My daily routine (scanning, what I do every day).
I will continue to follow the market and look for lower risk day trades in the trading room.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01312007qqqq.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01312007qqqq60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01312007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01312007spy60.jpg

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01312007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01312007dia60.jpg


Watch list for 01/31/2007

Watch ideas:
Long:

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01312007hans.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01312007dlr.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01312007oi.jpg

I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
ivica@ivicacharts.com
 
Watch list for 02/05/2007

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
CNP long above: 17.50, stop under: 17.22, target: 18 – 18.50 areas ST Last/next earning date: Feb 28, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02052007cnp.jpg

TG long above: 23.20, stop under: 22.70, target: 25 areas ST
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02052007tg.jpg

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
AMZN short under: 36.85, stop above: 37.53, target: 35 areas ST
Next earning date: May 03, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02052007amzn.jpg

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
LRCX short under: 45.27, stop above: 46.15, target: 42.50 (40) areas DT-ST Next earning date: Apr 18, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02052007lrcx.jpg

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02052007ce.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02052007egn.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02052007ben.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02052007usb.jpg

Short:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02052007pcp.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02052007chh.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
 
Watch list for 02/06/2007

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
XRX long above: 17.37, stop under: 16.70, target: open
Next earning date: Apr 24, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02062007xrx.jpg

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
ICE long above: 144.00, stop under: 142.75, target: 147 areas DT
Next earning date: Feb 07, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02062007ice.jpg

BEN long above: 121.63, stop under: 120.50, target: 125 areas DT-ST
Next earning date: Apr 26, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02062007ben.jpg

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
SIAL short under: 37.70, stop above: 38.10, target: 200sma daily ST
Next earning date: Feb 13, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02062007sial.jpg

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
MTW short under: 55.00, stop above: 55.75, target: open DT-ST
Next earning date: May 01, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02062007mtw.jpg

I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
ivica@ivicacharts.com
 
Watch list for 02/07/2007

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
HRB long above: 24.90, stop under: 24.53, target: 26 areas ST
Next earning date: Feb 22, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02072007hrb.jpg

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
ETR long above: 98.06, stop under: 97.80, target: 99 – 100 areas DT-ST
Next earning date: May 01, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02072007etr.jpg

SHORT:

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
K short under: 48.88, stop above: 49.18, target: 48 areas DT-ST
Next earning date: May 01, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02072007k.jpg

SEPR short under: 54.45, stop above: 55.37, target: 52.50 – 52 areas DT-ST Next earning date: May 02, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02072007sepr.jpg


Tracking records history:
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/dwl012007.htm - for January
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/dwl022007.htm - for February
 
Results for 02/06/2007

STEC - entered ($10.47) day trade exit ($10.00) plus $0.47 (4.49%, 2.61 r/r)
OXPS - entered ($24.03) day trade exit ($24.41) plus $0.38 (1.58%, 1.36 r/r)
FRX - entered ($57.43) day trade exit ($57.95) plus $0.52 (0.91%, 2.26 r/r)
EPL - entered ($21.17) day trade exit ($20.85) plus $0.32 (1.51%, 1.39 r/r)
AKAM - entered (56.65) day trade exit ($56.20) minus $0.45


These are great profits, but with every setup and trade, I try to teach you
to become a better trader. Here are the charts that I made available to all.

STEC
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02062007stec.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02072007stec.jpg

OXPS
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02062007oxps.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02072007oxps.jpg

FRX
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02062007frx.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02062007frx15.jpg

EPL
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02062007epl.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02062007epl15.jpg

Swing results

AKAM - entered ($55.07) swing trade exit ($56.95) plus $1.88 (3.41%, 0.87 r/r)
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/01292007akam.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02072007akam.jpg

WY - entered ($78.10) day trade exit ($78.57) plus $0.47 (0.60%, 1.34 r/r)
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02052007wy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02062007wy.jpg

Tracking records
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/dwl022007.htm - for February


Wish you all good trading
Ivica
 
Watch list for 02/08/2007

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
EGN long above: 46.36, stop under: 45.75, target: open ST
Next earning date: Apr 25, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02082007egn.jpg

ALKS long above: 15.20, stop under: 14.75, target: open ST
Next earning date: May 09, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02082007alks.jpg

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
MVSN long above: 25.67, stop under: 25.25, target: 26.50 DT-ST
Next earning date: Feb 13, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02082007mvsn.jpg

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
SMSI short under: 13.25, stop above: 13.70, target: 12.00 areas ST
Next earning date: Feb 28, 2007
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02082007smsi.jpg

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
CHH short under: 41.40, stop above: 41.90, target: 40 areas DT-ST
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/02082007chh.jpg
DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade
 
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