Preliminary phase of a group experiment for the determination of prices in a controlled collective environment
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BACKGROUND
Linear thinking represents an approach that is increasingly seen as limited when compared to more effective methodologies. One such method that stands in stark contrast is the concept of connected biomimicry, particularly through the lens of swarm intelligence. This concept posits a superior solution by leveraging the inherent collective wisdom found in nature. In the natural world, organisms are innately predisposed to collaborate effectively, exemplified by the maneuvers of birds or the cooperative hunting strategies of lions. Such collaborative behaviors underscore the principle of Swarm Intelligence. This phenomenon encapsulates how the aggregated actions of a group of simple entities can lead to outcomes that are significantly more sophisticated than the sum of individual efforts.
The principles of Swarm Intelligence have been successfully abstracted and applied beyond the natural world, finding utility in several modern-day fields. These applications range from robotics, where it informs the design and operation of autonomous systems, to information technology, enhancing processes and optimizing scheduling. Through these diverse applications, Swarm Intelligence demonstrates its versatility and effectiveness as a model for addressing complex challenges in a collaborative manner.
THE IDEA
The start of a series of tests is the subject of this thread. This test series evaluates price forecasts of a small collective of participating traders for initially a handful of markets, in that each participating trader in the test collective submits his price forecasts for these markets. The forecasts are evaluated with different individual weightings and ultimately result in final fixed prices. This will be posted here in the thread immediately after the evaluation. The method is refined until a high degree of precision is achieved. The whole process is experimental with no guarantee of success. Several test series will be started. We will journal transactions (entries and exits) in this thread based on the determinations once a certain level of accuracy is reached.
The experiment starts next tuesday. We invite you to post a simple "I'm on board" to keep the thread at the top of the thread list. This will also let us know the amount of data that we can expect to receive. It is not necessary to actively trade the specific markets. Intuitive guessing is perfectly fine!
PROCEDURE
(Almost) every day at 11:00PM (cet) the query of high and low price of a market or several markets for the next day is asked in this thread. Participants then send their forecasts to:
swarmintelmarkets@gmail.com
by 11:30PM (cet) at the latest.
It is relevant that no forecast is made available to the other participants or posted here. Each part of the "swarm" must forecast autonomously. At 11:45PM (cet) the result will be published here. At the end of the day, it will be evaluated how the course of trading has reflected or missed the forecast.
Email Text format example
EURUSD H:1.0860 L:1.0735
DAX H:18722 L:18510
INT
(or) TA
________________
H=High of the day
L=Low of the day
INT=If you have used your intuition (incl. fundamental data knowledge)
TA=If you have used technical analysis
No additional text please!
If you like this experiment, forward this thread to your friends! The higher the number of participants, the higher the expected accuracy.
