Surf's Special Situation Journal

[NoDoji]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Yes, regardless of what the NODOJI types say or believe-- the HFT algos are constantly changing and morphing-- they do not repeat over and over again-- if they did, predatory algos would kill the repeaters-- SO, i am at a loss at exactly what these folks are doing who rarely have a losing day trading in this style. What's claimed and market truth are opposed.
surf

PS-- other than simply being skilled at money management.

I'm NOT a HFT algo scalping fractions of cents. I'm trading intraday price swings for a minimum .20 profit. I'm using price action setups where traders are trapped out of good trades or trapped into bad ones. These setups have sufficient positive expectancy that even a 50/50 money management plan would still work.

Surf, you're speaking from an institutional environment where either machines are trying profit from fractions of cents all day long, or money managers are positioning, rotating, and hedging risk for longer term plays. Two very different environments and rules that work well for one do not work well for the other.

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

I don't know, but my guess would be if any strat has a name (such as Donchian) that is known to anyone other that the person who created it, then it probably wouldn't continue to work well unless it's been modified in some way.

That's just my guess/opinion.

Quote from syswizard:

Interesting comment. I remember when I had backtested the Donchian strategy a few years ago, it had an incredibly consistent equity curve upwards....even with the choppy S&P 500 emini contract. I wonder if that's no longer the case.

 

[Willleung]

Quote from NoDoji:

That's right, Willie! You have to be like oilfxpro and never trade TA/PA setups that fail because they're very low probability trades

LMAO Doji; missing chatting with you and hog. BTW I am not very active on Cornix's forum.

 

[Willleung]

Quote from NoDoji:

I'm NOT a HFT algo scalping fractions of cents. I'm trading intraday price swings for a minimum .20 profit. I'm using price action setups where traders are trapped out of good trades or trapped into bad ones. These setups have sufficient positive expectancy that even a 50/50 money management plan would still work.

hi NoD,

You could summarize it with you F world!

 

[syswizard]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

then it probably wouldn't continue to work well unless it's been modified in some way.

Interestingly, I did modify it slightly. It's the simplest algo in the world.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Holding here short-- stops @ 13215 fully expecting a big wave down here

Did you get stopped out on Nov 2nd or just right now? It did go 200 pts your way, but I think it hit your SL the next day...

 

[Willleung]

Quote from cornixforex:

Probably, I am not specialist in bots. But market behavior doesn't really change that fast. It certainly changed since 4-5 years ago, but slow enough for us humans to adapt.

Hi CF:

The building blocks didn't change much; trends, pullback all happened in 2008 and now; just way more vola, and a lot of bullsh1t worked then

the good old days

 

[cornix]

Quote from Willleung:

Hi CF:

The building blocks didn't change much; trends, pullback all happened in 2008 and now; just way more vola, and a lot of bullsh1t worked then

the good old days

Yep and same worked even before 2008.

 

[Pekelo]

Surf, here is a lesson from Pekelo's School of Fortune telling:

Quote from Pekelo:

Since I like to predict:

1. Obama wins easily by the EC.
2. Market drops 3-4 % in the next 3 days...

Market is down by 1.5 % right now.... This is how you make money...

 

[marketsurfer]

SUper star trend follower Dunn Down 6% last month per reliable inside source.. Stay away from trend funds or trend following.