Surf's Special Situation Journal

[NoDoji]

Quote from icarus618:

Now if you just go and do your homework and choose your preferred method of trade management - placing a protective stop, setting a minimum profit target, and deciding whether or not to move your stop to breakeven at any point, oh and knowing when to reverse when you're on the wrong side, and be sure to make a trading plan first, and also get a spreadsheet and backtest, and put in 10,000 hours, and listen to people who hold themselves out as "consistently profitable traders," and read Al Brooks, and definitely read Mark Douglas's Trading in the Zone, have to read that - and soon enough you too will be laughing all the way to the bank.

Yes, that was my road to consistent profitability. I readily admit that over 5000 hours of my time was spent immersed in my personal bias/stubborness and my total inability to understand what experienced profitable traders were telling me over and over again. So those hours were spent learning the hard way what NOT to do.

Icarus, how many hours did you put in, and how many (if any) books, online resources and/or traders did you study before you had your first six-figure profitable year solely from trading?

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Ol' Yella:

Yes, please fill us in....

As I recall, Dr. S is in the "retail trading is impossible unless you're already rich" camp.

But people online say they can make thousands of dollars a week trading futures from home in a 25k account.

Dr. S says no one makes a living trading a 25k futures account. Or a 50k account either. But some people here and elsewhere say yes you can. I wonder.... has Dr S changed his opinions?

We chatted about semantic social media financial market forecasting tactics and a a bunch of other stuff-- nothing about retail not making it. I do know that Dr, Brett is a believer in the scientific method, like myself when it comes to the market. To the best of my knowledge, he, like myself, have never seen a shred of evidence that anyone who trades retail are actually succesful for any even reasonable length of time--- but as I said, we didn't speak specifically about this. best, surf

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

I figured he might be implying the alternative definition of profitable, but was curious nonetheless.

Quote from Pekelo:

He meant insightful/fruitful/useful/educating. Forgive him, he is not a journalist...

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

What does this mean, "A very profitable afternoon"?

What a bizarre question-- it means what is says- why would i share specifics of any dealings with an anonymous person on a public board?

surf

PS-- Pittsburgh Pekelo is neither my spokesperson nor my handler-- I don't even know the guy--- why he answers for me is another mystery...

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from NoDoji:

Yes, that was my road to consistent profitability. I readily admit that over 5000 hours of my time was spent immersed in my personal bias/stubborness and my total inability to understand what experienced profitable traders were telling me over and over again. So those hours were spent learning the hard way what NOT to do.

Icarus, how many hours did you put in, and how many (if any) books, online resources and/or traders did you study before you had your first six-figure profitable year solely from trading?

What about those who put in the hours, but do not make it? DO they exist? Something seems fishy about an objective system taking that long to learn, a true objective system could be traded by a computer or a monkey for that matter... it seems like you trading with a subjective system and learning an art form of interpretation-- I looked into the ORB system, seems to have stopped working several years ago with the advent of decimalization per several extensive back tests I observed. can you add any color to this? thanks, surf

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Profitable has at least two meanings:

1. (of a business or activity) Yielding profit or financial gain.
2. Beneficial; useful (as in knowledge or wisdom etc)

As far as sharing specifics with an anonymous person on a public board...now you understand how I feel with regards to sharing a profitable trading method....makes perfect sense

Quote from marketsurfer:

What a bizarre question-- it means what is says- why would i share specifics of any dealings with an anonymous person on a public board?

surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Several years ago, I had this article published by several sources--- I may be rewriting it to include the new wave of "charitable" gurus who do not appear to be selling anything (yet) but want to "help" or "share"---this is an interesting dynamic---surf


The Proliferation and Growth of Guru Culture, by Dave G.
January 14, 2007 | 2 Comments
Gurus have always found fertile ground in the financial markets. The early 20th century brought us esoteria like Gann and his geometric lines combined with astrology. It also supposedly brought common sense gurus like Livermore with his simple rules and pivot points. Later on in the century, even more bizarre market seers arose, and Joe Granville comes to mind. One of my earliest memories of the market is reading about Granville promoting his "Books of Granville" dressed as the Biblical Moses. In fact, my first hands on exposure to the market was after I met a financial astrologer while fishing back in 1990. He claimed to have called the crash of 1987 and profited wildly by buying way out of the money OEX puts with his college fund. He became obsessed with repeating this feat and astrology in general. I remember his purchase of J. Paul Getty's astrologer Evangeline Adams library containing all types of esoteric tomes. Needless to say, to the best of my knowledge, this story does not have a good ending.
Recently, I have noticed a proliferation of gurus trolling the internet for memberships in various chat room type websites or seminars. They are generally traders of stock index products like the mini SP500, the mini Dow contract and the Russell 2000 mini product. They all have some type of indicator, method, or system that will enable their subscribers to easily extract profits by just following along. Some claim to use logic, others write in such an obscure manner that just about anything can be read into their words. I have divided the Neo Gurus into three main types:

1. The plain talking regular Joe: This type claims to have been just like you, prior to finding the holy grail, which due to his altruistic nature will share with you for a small fee or your adoration. Often they claim long hours, like 10k, put into figuring it out.

2. The Esoteric Intellectual: This type of guru was never like his followers existing on a higher plane. However, he is generous and is gladly sharing his knowledge for a stipend of what you will earn by joining his flock.

3. The Mystic: This type, although related to #2, is very different. He claims supernatural chart reading ability and general future reading skills.
My contention is that this recent proliferation of market gurus is an indication of a near short term top.

The last of the public is being drawn in to lubricate the machine for a rapid descent. The only unknown is when.

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Sweeet article, bro!

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from marketsurfer:

What about those who put in the hours, but do not make it? DO they exist?

They exist in large numbers. Creating a trading plan based on positive expectancy and/or positive money management requires a lot of work, but then comes the most difficult step of all for those who don't automate their plan from the start: Developing the trader's mindset necessary to profitably trade a profitable plan.

I've already posted many times that a person can know with absolute certainty that a particular setup has a 60% win rate over time, and yet find themselves unable to put on the trade when the setup triggers an entry because [fill in the blank - it feels weak here; it's run too high already; the news was bearish, it shouldn't be going up; I was checking my email, and so on].

No different than an athlete who trains and trains, and finally makes it to the Olympics, only to choke during the competition.

No different than a performer who trains and trains, but can't overcome stage fright, try as they might.

That's why Brett Steenbarger and Mark Douglas exist. Edges in the market are a dime a dozen; analyze them, make a plan that works in ample back testing, test in a simulator, train in a simulator. All systems go!

Then you read 90% of the journals here on ET and hear the same problems again and again:

I hesitated, it would've been a great trade.

I jumped the gun, there was no signal yet.

I got distracted, overslept, was checking emails, took a break...missed a great trade.

If only I followed my plan...

If I could maintain discipline...

It's a zero sum game and in any field where the potential upside is huge, the competition is keen.

 

[marketsurfer]

Thank you, Nodoji--- boiling down your cogent post--- psychology is the key combined with a positive expectancy system? Is this what you attribute your success to? However I completely disagree that edges are a dime a dozen. You don't understand the definition of an edge if you truly believe this surf