Surf's Special Situation Journal

marketsurfer · Oct 23, 2012

I have had, what I hope, will be a profitable break through with the Price Driver system. After discussing its failures with folks far wealthier, intelligent and experienced than I --- we have come to the realization that PD is only part of a workable system. The other part is the neo-surf death channel that was demonstrated here for a number of years prior to it losing its effectiveness. However, combined with the Price Drivers to signal volatility rather than direction--- the large losing trades of the last several months would have been large winners. We will be tweaking this new combo named The Price Driver Channel System in real time with the parameters and results recorded here. It does not trade daily, and is not a day trading system although multiple trades may be entered in one day.

Best,

surf

marketsurfer · Oct 23, 2012

Quote from NoDoji:

Yes, a positive expectancy system must be traded as the casino, not the gambler. It requires that all valid setups be traded (the casino must play against every valid customer), and managed according to the plan that produced the positive expectancy. If you begin picking and choosing which games to play, and/or if you let emotion instead of rules control how you play each game, you become the gambler.

ol:

Are you saying you are the "house" when it comes to the market? surf

R. Raskolnikov · Oct 23, 2012

Channels? Sounds like the use of TA in conjunction with PD...or am I reading it wrong?

Quote from marketsurfer:

I have had, what I hope, will be a profitable break through with the Price Driver system. After discussing its failures with folks far wealthier, intelligent and experienced than I --- we have come to the realization that PD is only part of a workable system. The other part is the neo-surf death channel that was demonstrated here for a number of years prior to it losing its effectiveness. However, combined with the Price Drivers to signal volatility rather than direction--- the large losing trades of the last several months would have been large winners. We will be tweaking this new combo named The Price Driver Channel System in real time with the parameters and results recorded here. It does not trade daily, and is not a day trading system although multiple trades may be entered in one day.

Best,

surf

marketsurfer · Oct 23, 2012

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Channels? Sounds like the use of TA in conjunction with PD...or am I reading it wrong?

It does use price breakouts, but the channel levels are not based on patterns or charts used in TA. So it's not TA based. surf

PS. Please see the surf report for its basic rules prior to the Price Driver combo.

cornix · Oct 23, 2012

Quote from marketsurfer:

It does use price breakouts, but the channel levels are not based on patterns or charts used in TA. So it's not TA based. surf

PS. Please see the surf report for its basic rules prior to the Price Driver combo.

Price breakouts in the sense you enter when price reaches certain point defined by your channel?

R. Raskolnikov · Oct 23, 2012

How will you view a price breakout to know that it has occurred if you are not using charts? Does past price in any way play a role in this new method?

Quote from marketsurfer:

It does use price breakouts

marketsurfer · Oct 23, 2012

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

How will you view a price breakout to know that it has occurred if you are not using charts? Does past price in any way play a role in this new method?

Charts create delusions when used in real time. When a certain price is violated by a certain time frame an entry is triggered-- no need for a chart-- although, charts may be used for illustrative purposes here.

Obviously, past price is used as a broad framework of channel system-- as in a stock trading at $30.00, the upper channel line wouldn't be at 10 or 100--- past price has nothing to do with the specific numbers within a range calculated for the channel numbers. surf

cornix · Oct 23, 2012

Quote from marketsurfer:

Charts create delusions when used in real time. When a certain price is violated by a certain time frame an entry is triggered-- no need for a chart-- although, charts may be used for illustrative purposes here.

Obviously, past price is used as a broad framework of channel system-- as in a stock trading at $30.00, the upper channel line wouldn't be at 10 or 100--- past price has nothing to do with the specific numbers within a range calculated for the channel numbers. surf

What inputs are used then to construct a channel? No need for specific nuances, I understand that's your proprietary work and respect it. But wonder just in general is it some fundamental data related to particular stock or some market action or something else?

Always interesting how others trade.

R. Raskolnikov · Oct 23, 2012

Time frames and past price levels, regardless if you use a chart or not to illustrate this, is still technical analysis. You are using a specific time frame and also using past price within this time frame to determine an entry trigger.

Quote from marketsurfer:

When a certain price is violated by a certain time frame an entry is triggered-- no need for a chart-- although, charts may be used for illustrative purposes here.

surf

marketsurfer · Oct 23, 2012

Quote from cornixforex:

What inputs are used then to construct a channel? No need for specific nuances, I understand that's your proprietary work and respect it. But wonder just in general is it some fundamental data related to particular stock or some market action or something else?

Always interesting how others trade.

The numbers are volatility based as determined by the Price Drivers. surf