Surf's Special Situation Journal
- Thread starter marketsurfer
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Excellent choice by Surf as far as showing outdated technical price drivers versus more clever Surf Drivers. I have posted loads of these calling the moves in advance in TA Simplicity. Sorry I missed this call or I'd have posted earlier.
Take a look at how the Smart Money set up the hit on this bottom. You can see what is called the Change of Hands in progress before the reversal bar.
Take a look at how the Smart Money set up the hit on this bottom. You can see what is called the Change of Hands in progress before the reversal bar.
This is where it gets interesting: as PA is trending, oops Surf doesn't believe in trends. Ok as it moves in one direction volume is accumulating a position throughout the price rise. They don't want out of this one.
Now we are coming to the Cup Level and it is also at the Window/Gap level. We may encounter some turbulence but the weekly and monthly charts are wanting higher.
Breaking through the Window coinciding with a Cup formation is where the money piles in so this is going to be interesting. I am going to have to pay more attention to Surf's price drivers.
Now we are coming to the Cup Level and it is also at the Window/Gap level. We may encounter some turbulence but the weekly and monthly charts are wanting higher.
Breaking through the Window coinciding with a Cup formation is where the money piles in so this is going to be interesting. I am going to have to pay more attention to Surf's price drivers.
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if take the opposite position, you will not need a stop.............
" the Surf is the word........."
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I posted this on the junk TA is junk thread because it's important for TA guys to understand how price drivers Surf praises really effect the market. First of all, forget the fluff that Surf preached about magic price drivers that leave TA for dead. I know from first hand experience of mentoring a quant prof. from a top uni that they can tell what is going to happen in the next few micro seconds to the next few full big seconds, but the further out you go the less they know and that's why the prof came to me.
As this example of Surf's unfolds it demonstrates that all their coding and formulas are about what is happening now and of course that leaves us way behind their wake. We might be 30 seconds behind them but we have one giant advantage - TA. TA gives us a way to quantify the probabilities of a move and determine the probability of a domino effect through time frames so we can ride it out - be that for a few minutes or several hours... or in this case of JCP weeks and even months.
Attached is an example of TA elephant price drivers on a tiny 3 pip Euro chart with buying volume added to the top of a green candle and selling to the bottom of a red candle for fast reading. This is not the same volume as on the bottom of the chart as this relates to traders past actions. I don't need the microsecond trade, I want to follow the elephants. Knowing that as the tiny 3 pip engulfer forms elephants are exposed accumulating a position lets me jump on the move.The exact same thing applies on all time frames and it's the same idea as the last volume chart I posted, but you'll not find this at BabyPips.
TA exposes useful price drivers below the 1 minute level through to the monthly charts plus it identifies the multiple time frame domino effect... and that is a oceanic scope that algo traders with their micro price drivers are lost in.
As this example of Surf's unfolds it demonstrates that all their coding and formulas are about what is happening now and of course that leaves us way behind their wake. We might be 30 seconds behind them but we have one giant advantage - TA. TA gives us a way to quantify the probabilities of a move and determine the probability of a domino effect through time frames so we can ride it out - be that for a few minutes or several hours... or in this case of JCP weeks and even months.
Attached is an example of TA elephant price drivers on a tiny 3 pip Euro chart with buying volume added to the top of a green candle and selling to the bottom of a red candle for fast reading. This is not the same volume as on the bottom of the chart as this relates to traders past actions. I don't need the microsecond trade, I want to follow the elephants. Knowing that as the tiny 3 pip engulfer forms elephants are exposed accumulating a position lets me jump on the move.The exact same thing applies on all time frames and it's the same idea as the last volume chart I posted, but you'll not find this at BabyPips.
TA exposes useful price drivers below the 1 minute level through to the monthly charts plus it identifies the multiple time frame domino effect... and that is a oceanic scope that algo traders with their micro price drivers are lost in.
I disagree with surf's claim that TA is of no value if properly used and understood. (Which he does not appear to be the case with him.) However, while I think that TA can point to a balance of probability and help identify low-risk trade areas, I disagree that it has any meaningful value in quantifying probabilities of future outcomes. I think you are assigning far more specificity to the whole thing than actually exists. Surf is right in stating that a frequency distribution of past outcomes does not equal a probability distribution of future outcomes. But while he diminishes the value of TA, I think you are overstating it.
While I think it is worth overstating in order to redress the balance, I don't think I have done so - at least not yet
Surf maintains a position that TA only shows what price has done and therefore is worthless. I maintain that he is wrong, as do many others who saw this trade as a screamer of a swing set up that would develop a trend.
Now regarding your points, if you discover a low risk trade area, it can only be low risk if the balance of probabilities is in favor of your trade. If it has no meaningful value in quantifying the probability of the future outcome, for my style it is not low risk.
I need to know that there is both time and force in favor of a trade, and if those are not present then wait for a better opportunity. Fortunately there are many such opportunities.
Hi Xspurt,
Do you mean that this is a 3 tick chart and there's a double bottom with big selling volume? (first arrow)
How did you choose your second entry (2e arrow)?
A few bars before, there was also buying pressure.
Or was it the combination of big selling and suddenly big buying?
Thanks,
Onra
Yes it is a 3 tick range chart. I'm using Wyckoff Volume signals which is a bit long winded to explain. There is at least one thread on the subject somewhere on ET.
If you get on the email list with Todd Mitchell of Trading Concepts you will get free videos that will give you a good grounding in the basics for $0.
I have never used Todd's materials so I can't say much about them, but I get his emails and there is little difference in our volume reading styles.
On the 2nd long (there was a short signal before that) PA drops and there is a spike in selling but then the selling disappears as PA forms 2 more candles (little red arrows underneath). There is a buying tail on the last red which is an alert to watch the next candle. Finally there is a green engulfer and with the question a trader wants to know the answer to: is this engulfer potent or just a midstream engulfer.
There are 3 clues: one is the way PA approached the turn, the 2nd was the way volume sellers finished their scalp down and the 3rd was the big reversal volume on the candle signal.
That was enough to push the market up 40 pips.
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