Surf's Special Situation Journal

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Xspurt:

While I think it is worth overstating in order to redress the balance, I don't think I have done so - at least not yet

Surf maintains a position that TA only shows what price has done and therefore is worthless. I maintain that he is wrong, as do many others who saw this trade as a screamer of a swing set up that would develop a trend.

Now regarding your points, if you discover a low risk trade area, it can only be low risk if the balance of probabilities is in favor of your trade. If it has no meaningful value in quantifying the probability of the future outcome, for my style it is not low risk.

I need to know that there is both time and force in favor of a trade, and if those are not present then wait for a better opportunity. Fortunately there are many such opportunities.

You can always pick out examples of TA tools working--- the same examples can be shown on random charts--the bottom line is, despite all this talk of probabilities, the odds of a certain pattern increasing probabilities of a continuation or correction CAN NOT be measured or quantified. This is enough in and of itself to dismiss TA as a viable method, anecdotal evidence aside. surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Brass:

I disagree with surf's claim that TA is of no value if properly used and understood. (Which he does not appear to be the case with him.) However, while I think that TA can point to a balance of probability and help identify low-risk trade areas, I disagree that it has any meaningful value in quantifying probabilities of future outcomes. I think you are assigning far more specificity to the whole thing than actually exists. Surf is right in stating that a frequency distribution of past outcomes does not equal a probability distribution of future outcomes. But while he diminishes the value of TA, I think you are overstating it.

Thank you for being cordial, mr. Brass. You can not use terms like probabilities and low risk without being able to measure and quantify. If I am correct, as you state, what value does TA have, aside from illustration and rhetoric? surf

 

[Onra]

Quote from marketsurfer:

You can always pick out examples of TA tools working--- the same examples can be shown on random charts--the bottom line is, despite all this talk of probabilities, the odds of a certain pattern increasing probabilities of a continuation or correction CAN NOT be measured or quantified. This is enough in and of itself to dismiss TA as a viable method, anecdotal evidence aside. surf

Well, that may be true for you, but I want to thank Xspurt for his analysis!

 

[Xspurt]

Quote from marketsurfer:

You can always pick out examples of TA tools working--- the same examples can be shown on random charts--the bottom line is, despite all this talk of probabilities, the odds of a certain pattern increasing probabilities of a continuation or correction CAN NOT be measured or quantified. This is enough in and of itself to dismiss TA as a viable method, anecdotal evidence aside. surf

You didn't like it when I posted the TA winners who manage billions Surf. These guys measure it, quantify it and manage billions using it. Of course as you say, it is not retail TA.

How would you propose such a successful measurement and quantifying of TA would be done. Would you suggest the TA winners sit down with some scientists and give them the winning formula so they can say, Hey everyone TA works! And of course I posted several scientific studies that show TA works but there was no comment on that.

Get real Surf, no one is EVER going to sit down with one of your quant friends who can't see into next week and give them the golden goose. So until then all you have as proof is what I am about to post to answer your statement.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from marketsurfer:

You can always pick out examples of TA tools working---

You can always pick out examples of Price Driver working....

The bottom line is, you are overgeneralizing about TA. TA is huge, some of them work some don't.

P.S.: Since you like probabilities, the 2nd gap rule has a 90% win ratio, and it has been forward tested in the ES Journal for the last 3 years...

So we only need one black swan, I mean TA tool to prove you to be a tool.

 

[Xspurt]

Here are 2 pages of links and examples I posted of TA managing billions, track records of many years of successful TA trading, scientific papers...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3620874#post3620874

That is to say nothing of traders I know who trade huge positions intraday using TA. One guy frequently day trades 20,000 ES contracts. Do you think these guys are interested in proving anything to anyone. One of them said, Why do you bother posting on ET?

There is one reason: I hope it might encourage some folks to be creative, never give up and don't believe the failures.

Once again Surf, show me an example of your TA skills that back up your assertion that TA is random. Pick a chart with a great buy signal that fails and let me see how developed your TA is that supports your convictions.

We both know every TA signal can't work so that should be an easy one for you.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Xspurt:

Here are 2 pages of links and examples I posted of TA managing billions, track records of many years of successful TA trading, scientific papers...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3620874#post3620874

That is to say nothing of traders I know who trade huge positions intraday using TA. One guy frequently day trades 20,000 ES contracts. Do you think these guys are interested in proving anything to anyone. One of them said, Why do you bother posting on ET?

There is one reason: I hope it might encourage some folks to be creative, never give up and don't believe the failures.

Once again Surf, show me an example of your TA skills that back up your assertion that TA is random. Pick a chart with a great buy signal that fails and let me see how developed your TA is that supports your convictions.

We both know every TA signal can't work so that should be an easy one for you.

You are majorly misled. Jim Simons and Steve Cohen don't use TA --- neither does Tudor Jones for that matter, any longer. I guess if you just keep saying the same thing over and over again, it may come true? surf

 

[Fah Q]

Quote from marketsurfer:

I guess if you just keep saying the same thing over and over again, it may come true? surf

i think this is your tactic, no?

 

[Fah Q]

Quote from Xspurt:


Once again Surf, show me an example of your TA skills that back up your assertion that TA is random. Pick a chart with a great buy signal that fails and let me see how developed your TA is that supports your convictions.

We both know every TA signal can't work so that should be an easy one for you.

he always ignores this part of your post, I wonder why?

 

[Xspurt]

Quote from marketsurfer:

You are majorly misled. Jim Simons and Steve Cohen don't use TA --- neither does Tudor Jones for that matter, any longer. I guess if you just keep saying the same thing over and over again, it may come true? surf

What does majorly mean - most or least? You are disputing 3 out of many. Doesn't that mean you are majorly mislead

I guess if you keep saying the same thing they will all stop using TA and those with outstanding records will recant heehee.

Come on Surf, show me an example of failed TA. I have asked you on 3 threads for some time - let's nail down a great example of a powerful TA signal that doesn't work. According to you that's easy - it's getting one that works (like JCP) that is hard.