Surfer Alerts

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Quote from marketsurfer:

I disagree. You don't know if a long 30 minute candle or whatever marks the bottom or the start of a downtrend. Lets say by flipping a coin, you enter in the wrong direction--- money management would have you quickly close the position ( you forget this part) then you would flip the coin again---or you just automatically take the opposite position--- this time the trend is your friend and catch the huge down wave holding. It's exactly the same thing as guessing if any pattern will form or not and cutting losses / letting winners run.
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You do have a wonderful sense of humour Surf. Someone who puts 90% of his liquid net worth on a single trade telling me I've forgotten about money management.

Money management is obviously a concept alien to you, so let me tell you what it can do for you. Money management would, by a combination of capital available/percentage you wish to allocate to the trade, how much you are willing to risk on the trade and where you need to put your stop, determine your position size. Some use a money management stop and work from there. That's it.

Trade management on the other hand would determine where you put your stop to begin with (unless you use a money management stop), when and how you trail your stop, whether you add to your position and when and how you exit with a profit.

Your method for determining entries has the burden of giving you at least a minimum number of winning trades.

Now to your point about not knowing whether the long red candle is the bottom or not, sure so if you are a short term trader, you will either want to enter short based on a shorter time frame chart, or stay out for the time being. You don't assume a move will end or change until it does.

Then there is common sense. Bernanke just spoke, stocks, bonds, metals are all selling off, one would have to be pretty dumb to go long unless it is a counter-trend scalp.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

752 points in the YM short--- with that said, time for fishing!

have a good one everyone.

surf
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You've made some horrible calls in the past, MS, and your trading strategy has certainly been questionable. However, this call was an excellent one, and credit should be given where credit is due.

Kudos.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

I have made 2 macro forecasts this year and will be the first to admit that my or any short term timing is extremely difficult. The super bull call, published in multiple places, was 100% accurate, and so far the TOP call has panned out.
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Wow, that's masterly trading!... I haven't followed the thread in detail, but is it safe to say the various trolls, hecklers, papertraders and vendors biting at you ankles aren't interested in posting before-the-fact calls, as you do?
 
Quote from Rodney King:

Wow, that's masterly trading!... I haven't followed the thread in detail, but is it safe to say the various trolls, hecklers, papertraders and vendors biting at you ankles aren't interested in posting before-the-fact calls, as you do?
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Thanks for the support, Rod.

surf
 
SURF ALERT SURF ALERT SURF ALERT SURF ALERT SURF ALERT SURF ALERT


WE ARE CLOSING ALL SHORT IN THE DJIA to BOOK PROFITS. YM closed at 14750 for 551 points.

This does not negate our TOP is in Call or that there is dramatically more downside awaiting investors this year. The Price Drivers have shifted indicating a change for now--- so we are closing shorts to take profits then planning on shorting again at a higher level. Due to a new baby arriving any day now, and packing for a move to the beach, I will not be updating the surf alert regularly for the next several months ------ see everyone in the fall for our 2014 outlook----- best wishes, surf
 
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