Surfer Alerts
- Thread starter marketsurfer
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I love those pictures, the guy could be thinking anything, like "What will I eat for lunch?", yet the scenes are exploited in times of higher vix.
A recently read about a study that documented that the most popular sports pundits are the most opinionated ones, not the most accurate. I bet it is also true for market pundits and gurus.
Regardless, this as been a monster call for surf! Picking a long term stock market top is perhaps the most challenging and difficult trading call to make. I give him allot of credit for doing it in real time in a public forum.
Regardless, this as been a monster call for surf! Picking a long term stock market top is perhaps the most challenging and difficult trading call to make. I give him allot of credit for doing it in real time in a public forum.
Quote from cornix:
We have a saying in Russia: don't share the skin of a bear not yet killed.
Yes I was thinking along the same lines, lots of guys here doling out praise to Surf, but the reality is, on the 19th June, any trade after that had a chance of either going up or down. The probabilities were it would go down but that loud brash call of being short was foolhardy.
The market is littered with traders who have gone bust and Surf's style is another one of them. This was a dangerous trade and the fact that Surf won the call makes it even more dangerous.
I enjoy reading Surf's journal as I lick my chops at the upcoming train wreck.
Trade on.Quote from themickey:
Yes I was thinking along the same lines, lots of guys here doling out praise to Surf, but the reality is, on the 19th June, any trade after that had a chance of either going up or down. The probabilities were it would go down but that loud brash call of being short was foolhardy.
The market is littered with traders who have gone bust and Surf's style is another one of them. This was a dangerous trade and the fact that Surf won the call makes it even more dangerous.
I enjoy reading Surf's journal as I lick my chops at the upcoming train wreck.
I have made 2 macro forecasts this year and will be the first to admit that my or any short term timing is extremely difficult. The super bull call, published in multiple places: http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3714100&highlight=super+bull#post3714100
was 100% accurate, and so far the TOP call has panned out. Holding shorts for now. surf
I don't wish you bad luck, sorry for the previous statement, but there is one given in trading, there is no certain outcome on which way direction will take. Taking a predictive mindset to trading is amateurish. That is why traders - those who know what they are doing - to a large part use TA, it's not that they are using it like a crystal ball / tea leaf reading, it's because they use it to read recent past price action and using a methodolgy of probability, enter a trade with finger on trigger to smartly exit the trade should it be wrong.
However you Poo Poo that, hence why I react to your apparent arrogance.
However you Poo Poo that, hence why I react to your apparent arrogance.
Well said, no sure bets.
Thanks, but the TA statements I have issue with ( speaking of arrogance) are like this one :
TA is predictive.....
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=273468&perpage=6&pagenumber=30
Why not do a random entry without TA and if its right stay in if wrong cut your losses? Do you think the outcome would be different? If its not a predictive method then it shouldn't make a difference. Right? surf
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