Those are excellent points. The primary difference between now and the sector driven times is that today the market is purely powered by 85 billion monthly from the fed--- once this slows down and ends, the panic will set in over the entire market and the snowball effect will be unstoppable. It will be unlike anything in the past. surf
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Those are excellent points. The primary difference between now and the sector driven times is that today the market is purely powered by 85 billion monthly from the fed--- once this slows down and ends, the panic will set in over the entire market and the snowball effect will be unstoppable. It will be unlike anything in the past. surf
Ok, but then WHY do you feel like the bull will rip the market back up to new highs after this "epic collapse"?
I am fairly certain you KNOW exactly what i mean when I say I can FEEl this collapse on the way-- You have been involved in the markets long enough to know what is happening right now------- the feeling, knowing the fundamental likely cause and initiall signals by the Price Drivers is powerful incentive for me.
I really don't know what it will be, but something will happen that will drive the market to new highs after the collapse-- be it government , an amazing new technology/discovery, Pro- USA sentiment, I dont' know but I do know it WILL HAPPEN. surf
I told you in earlier posts that I DID NOT disagree that we may have seen the highs (on 5/22) before a strong retrace, however I'm also not a long term investor/trader. My core competency lies in trading day to day. So my opinion, agreeing with your position, doesn't mean a whole lot.
I was just curious what your thinking was behind the new highs coming AFTER this "epic collapse". Seems like you are just saying that it will happen because it's always happened not because of any one or two specific prognostications.
I was just curious what your thinking was behind the new highs coming AFTER this "epic collapse". Seems like you are just saying that it will happen because it's always happened not because of any one or two specific prognostications.
Well, after the Lehman collapse the markets recovered to make new all-time highs, so if the markets collapse again, it's reasonable to expect new all-time highs post collapse.
I believe Surf mentioned DOW 20K, that may be excessive but he wouldn't be the first to get carried away. I recall seeing a book sometime in the early 2000s with a title something like 'Bull - DOW 30,000'. The only bull was the one in the title, but what's new?
How many more "epic" melt-downs do we get to witness before gov/pressure groups call an end to the current system due to volatility.
The social attitude is so different these days, while I hope the current distortions work their way out of the market and the worlds economys return to health at the end of that, I actualy dread more epic crashes, potential for epic profit yes, but the potential regulatory responses and social movements it could spawn are concerning, not that we have any control, but just a thought.
The social attitude is so different these days, while I hope the current distortions work their way out of the market and the worlds economys return to health at the end of that, I actualy dread more epic crashes, potential for epic profit yes, but the potential regulatory responses and social movements it could spawn are concerning, not that we have any control, but just a thought.
You have brought up an excellent point. I was just thinking today that people are becoming more intolerant of misery visited upon them by the excesses of a financial sector that they do not perceive as benefiting them in any way. They pay for all services they receive, mortgage agreements are stacked against them, credit is not easy to get for small businesses and then when crunch time comes, they foot the bill.
Then to rub salt in the wound, news comes of more financial excesses and multi-million dollar bonuses.
Consider what has happened with cheap money as a result of QE. The rationale was propping up the US economy. What actually happened to quite a bit of that money? It found its way to Thailand and other South East Asian countries, creating stock market booms and huge demand for bonds with better yields. It put money in the pockets of non-Americans in other parts of the world. Sure it benefited Americans - those with holdings in the funds that invested here. Meanwhile back in America, we still read of small businesses having difficulty securing credit.
I'm not American, if I were I would be seriously pissed off with all this. If we put aside our inherent identification with the financial sector (as traders), would any intelligent person tolerate being used in the way? I wouldn't.
As you note, we have no control over this. Surf reckons the next collapse will have its roots in tapering/cessation of QE. People may well see that misery as due to an unwarranted bailout of the financial sector by the government. All they will think is that it was a false dawn, an illusion due to QE. I have no 'feel' for the mood on main street in America, you all know so give it a thought.
Surf, sorry if this takes your thread off course, it is a serious matter related to your expected collapse so I hope you will bear with us.
Hopefully as many as can fit into our lifetimes!
You have to realize - your comment/viewpoint isn't new.
The social attitudes are not different.
The same attitudes/comments/issues/problems have been around since the 1830s. Probably even before taking into account Tulip mania, the South Sea bubble, the Inquisition, the fall of Rome, the fall of Athens, etc.
Just visit your nearest library that keeps a large collection of newspapers and periodicals on microfiche or whatever. You'll see people were complaining about the same issues and problems in the 1830s, 1850s, 1870s, 1890s, 1910s, 1930s, etc as they are now.
Ever wonder how many people bellowed for gov't intervention and/or restraint of trade/money supply/speculation/whatever after the panics/depressions of ...
1837 ... 1857 ... 1873 ... 1893 ... 1903 ... 1907 ... 1929 ... 1937
1968 ... 1973 ... 1987 ... 1997 ... 1998 ... 2001 ... 2008
Government intervention via more laws/regulations hasn't stopped the volatility or prevented the ensuing booms and busts.
It can't.
Dynamic economies, like Mother Nature, thrive on volatility.
The best systems, whether biological or man-made, have cycles of birth, growth, maturation, and death.
A few win big each cycle.
A few lose big.
The rest tread water just above/at/below the median
But no matter. In the end, everything dies and gets replaced by the New New thing.
Enterprising humans will always find new and clever ways to exploit some new or neglected part of the economy and get rich as others are enticed to play along.
Volatility is the spice of life.
The systems do pretty good jobs of capping the extent and duration of the extremes. Some call the extremes and resulting washouts "Constructive Destruction". Out with the old and inefficient and in with the new and innovative.
If you're complaining, you're probably the one being washed out...
However, history shows that when volatility is capped, the resulting washouts are much more explosive and the damage much more widespread.
Personally, a collapse would be a wonderful opportunity.
I'll profit on the way down, then when great Thai stocks are trading below book value, as they did post Lehman, I'll load up on investments and ride the next wave up.
The concern is a some point we'll get a 'Run the bums out of town' mentality, or worse, the sort of stuff that happened in the French Revolution.
You talk about all that happened in history with previous crashes, but you overlook the point that times have changed. Yours is a static view. People are more educated, unwilling to be dictated to by leaders, elected or otherwise, and have social media to organize and unite in a common purpose. We no longer hang hungry children who steal a loaf of bread.
I'm sure Saddam Hussein, Ahmed Ben Bella and Hosni Mubarak thought all was good, until it wasn't.
I'll profit on the way down, then when great Thai stocks are trading below book value, as they did post Lehman, I'll load up on investments and ride the next wave up.
The concern is a some point we'll get a 'Run the bums out of town' mentality, or worse, the sort of stuff that happened in the French Revolution.
You talk about all that happened in history with previous crashes, but you overlook the point that times have changed. Yours is a static view. People are more educated, unwilling to be dictated to by leaders, elected or otherwise, and have social media to organize and unite in a common purpose. We no longer hang hungry children who steal a loaf of bread.
I'm sure Saddam Hussein, Ahmed Ben Bella and Hosni Mubarak thought all was good, until it wasn't.
Thougtful responses from Justrading & Blah12345678 there, I know the attitudes arent new as such, its just fueled by social media, the world has not seen anything gain ground in the way OWS & the FTT have, as far as I am aware.
Things to me still feel very critical, I hope it works out as I intend to have several decades to come in this game
Things to me still feel very critical, I hope it works out as I intend to have several decades to come in this game
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