As expected this support has given way as the DJIA continues its downward trajectory-- 14963 is next critical figure in the cash index---- the sooner the drop happens the less painful it will be for the TA toadies, but remember it may be a slow grind for awhile. time wil tell. surf
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As expected this support has given way as the DJIA continues its downward trajectory-- 14963 is next critical figure in the cash index---- the sooner the drop happens the less painful it will be for the TA toadies, but remember it may be a slow grind for awhile. time wil tell. surf
Our next support level of YM14963 is approaching-- holding shorts as the sell off continues. surf
Remember, our system is certain of a multi thousand point decline and that the yearly highs are in place in the market. We do not fish for minnows nor surf in the kiddie pool at the surf shack. Stay tuned.
Remember, our system is certain of a multi thousand point decline and that the yearly highs are in place in the market. We do not fish for minnows nor surf in the kiddie pool at the surf shack. Stay tuned.
Everything go go for the slide to continue. Japan falls into bear market, Nikkei down over 6%. Just wait for the Feds to pull back on the easing--- imagine total annihilation of the TA dip buying toadies with curbs actually closing trading then reopened multi percentages lower. This will likely be the steepest and longest lived decline in history--- called first by the Price Drivers. It will be epic
surf
surf
Something I have been pondering today, haven't got an answer so let's discuss.
Thai market plunging because foreign funds are liquidating, I've got a ringside seat here. Started since talk of tapering QE began. Same for other South East Asian Markets.
Japan is basically headline driven.
Since tapering has not actually begun, the money pulled out of SEA (and Japan and Hong Kong) has to go somewhere for the time being a least. The question is where? Europe is volatile/down too so it isn't going there, indeed some may be pulling out of Europe.
US bonds? When tapering begins, yields will go up and prices down. Short term nothing to stop prices going up?
US stocks? In that case it won't be that much of a dip/pullback.
Thoughts?
Good points-- but I think there is/will be a disconnect between the traditional correlations and most previous correlations will no longer be valid-- but that's just my guess, we will have to wait and see.
surf
Mr T. A. Trendline says that the market may have one more high left in her, or at least a re-test of the 1687 SPX high ... I'm looking for 1687 - 1700 as early as next week and no later than July opex.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/97137680@N06/9033901062/
It's not over the top at all. Do you really think its impossible for the DJIA to take out the steepest and longest decline ever, then rebound to the 20k area within 5 years? Markets crash and rally, its how they work.
My pulse rate hasn't changed at all. Does anyone even know how many consecutive days the DJIA has fallen in a row makes the longest decline ever?
surf
Magna
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This thread gets toxic quickly with name-calling and abusive posts. Due to multiple complaints (not by marketsurfer) the last few days have been cleaned up, all the offending posts and those who quoted them. If your posts were removed... then YOU know who the culprits are. Don't understand why those who are so annoyed by the journal can't simply stay away, but children must play.
the steepest decline point wise was 777 points in sept, 2008--- our vol fund made a KILLING on that day ( never forget the phone call, i was in central park and thought I was going to be a master of the universe afterwards) and the longest consecutive decline in the DJIA since 2-78 (our quickly accessible data limit) has been 9 days.
Anyone who thinks its impossible for those numbers to be beat, just wait.
surf
Anyone who thinks its impossible for those numbers to be beat, just wait.
surf
In case anyone cares, I had a quant friend run in R from FRED data on DJIA regarding number of down/up consecutive days: Here are the results:
> UpRuns
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
7476 3263 2031 1060 554 319 161 81 50 21 15 5 1 1 1
> DnRuns
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15
9119 3740 1901 997 479 239 116 50 30 4 1 3 1 1
And this since 1/1/1980,
> UpRuns
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 14
1837 1019 540 283 163 75 35 15 9 2 3 1 1
> DnRuns
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2288 1140 528 264 124 54 25 4 6
(meaning, 1837 runs of exactly one up day... 1 run of exactly 14 up
days.. similarly for Dn Dys
> UpRuns
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
7476 3263 2031 1060 554 319 161 81 50 21 15 5 1 1 1
> DnRuns
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15
9119 3740 1901 997 479 239 116 50 30 4 1 3 1 1
And this since 1/1/1980,
> UpRuns
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 14
1837 1019 540 283 163 75 35 15 9 2 3 1 1
> DnRuns
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2288 1140 528 264 124 54 25 4 6
(meaning, 1837 runs of exactly one up day... 1 run of exactly 14 up
days.. similarly for Dn Dys
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