I think Santorum is now starting to realize what a disadvantage he has. Frankly, he is very lucky that there are only 1/2 as many states voting tomorrow as there normally are. If this election was similar to past years, it would be over tomorrow. He is already having a hard time competing and there are only 4 states in play out of the 10 that vote.
ID, MA, VA, and VT are Mitt's no problem, and by significant margins. Not only will Rick lose those, he won't even pick up more than a few delegates. Mitt will also probably take ND, but I think that Ron Paul will do well there.
Gingrich is gonna take GA, but unfortunately for Rick he still has to compete there because of the weird way that they are allocating their delegates. 2 delegates to the winner of each district, and then 1 to the runner up, unless the winner gets a simple majority. It is unlikely in a 4 man race that Newt can get over 50% in many districts. And then the At-large delegates are completely proportional, but subject to a minimum 20%. So there are still about 20 delegates that Newt won't get, but to play, Rick must get at least 20%. Sucks to waste time competing in a state that you are going to lose handily.
I also think that Newt wins AK. I think the Palins supporting him will give him the edge there since only something like 10,000 people vote.
I thought that Rick had OK and TN locked in because he was sitting on 20 point leads 1 1/2 weeks ago. But Mitt's team went to work on them. The most recent polling has it at a dead tie in TN and closing fast in OK. I still think that OK goes to Santorum, because he had such a wide margin of support that it would be hard to lose. As of three days ago, he dropped from 43% down to 36%, while Mitt increased from 18% up to 26%. I think OK will end up something like 34% to 29%. TN will likely be a dead heat.
Then there is OH, which was always going to be tight. But there is an unfortunate trend for Rick. Conventional wisdom says that Newt was the one splitting the vote with Rick, and that if Newt would get out of the race, then Rick could win. But Mitt is rising fast in OH, and Rick has plateaued. People are fleeing Newt, but they aren't going to Rick, they are going to Mitt. Unfortunately for Rick, Newt doesn't have any time or resource to try to get any of them back.
If the weekend trends hold through tomorrow, then Mitt might end up eking out a win in TN and OH. It looks like Rick is going to be shut out in GA, and Mitt will pick up maybe 15-20 delegates there. So strangely enough, there is a good chance that Newt and Rick end up virtually tied after tomorrow.
My expectation has it roughly like this.
Mitt -- approx 400 delegates
Rick -- approx 170
Newt --approx 140
Paul -- approx 60
ID, MA, VA, and VT are Mitt's no problem, and by significant margins. Not only will Rick lose those, he won't even pick up more than a few delegates. Mitt will also probably take ND, but I think that Ron Paul will do well there.
Gingrich is gonna take GA, but unfortunately for Rick he still has to compete there because of the weird way that they are allocating their delegates. 2 delegates to the winner of each district, and then 1 to the runner up, unless the winner gets a simple majority. It is unlikely in a 4 man race that Newt can get over 50% in many districts. And then the At-large delegates are completely proportional, but subject to a minimum 20%. So there are still about 20 delegates that Newt won't get, but to play, Rick must get at least 20%. Sucks to waste time competing in a state that you are going to lose handily.
I also think that Newt wins AK. I think the Palins supporting him will give him the edge there since only something like 10,000 people vote.
I thought that Rick had OK and TN locked in because he was sitting on 20 point leads 1 1/2 weeks ago. But Mitt's team went to work on them. The most recent polling has it at a dead tie in TN and closing fast in OK. I still think that OK goes to Santorum, because he had such a wide margin of support that it would be hard to lose. As of three days ago, he dropped from 43% down to 36%, while Mitt increased from 18% up to 26%. I think OK will end up something like 34% to 29%. TN will likely be a dead heat.
Then there is OH, which was always going to be tight. But there is an unfortunate trend for Rick. Conventional wisdom says that Newt was the one splitting the vote with Rick, and that if Newt would get out of the race, then Rick could win. But Mitt is rising fast in OH, and Rick has plateaued. People are fleeing Newt, but they aren't going to Rick, they are going to Mitt. Unfortunately for Rick, Newt doesn't have any time or resource to try to get any of them back.
If the weekend trends hold through tomorrow, then Mitt might end up eking out a win in TN and OH. It looks like Rick is going to be shut out in GA, and Mitt will pick up maybe 15-20 delegates there. So strangely enough, there is a good chance that Newt and Rick end up virtually tied after tomorrow.
My expectation has it roughly like this.
Mitt -- approx 400 delegates
Rick -- approx 170
Newt --approx 140
Paul -- approx 60
