Successful traders keep silent because trading is so simple...

I think that's a very good point.

Trading is hard work. Not physically, but mentally.

And yet many people get into trading because they think it might be an easy way to make money - they leave the markets when they find that's not the case.


Thanks

Damian

Professional U.S. Share Trader
 
Quote from TheDamo:

I think that's a very good point.

Trading is hard work. Not physically, but mentally.

And yet many people get into trading because they think it might be an easy way to make money - they leave the markets when they find that's not the case.


Thanks

Damian

Professional U.S. Share Trader
More...

Hi Damian

you mean that trading is the hardest way of making an easy living that you know... I read that somewhere and it always stuck.
regards
f9
 
"This is simply not true, because trading is not a zero sum game... this is true even for derivatives such as futures and options... and successful traders all know about that..."


for derivatives it is, and cannot be other than a zero sum game. that's basic math

for equities, it is obviously not.

it's an issue of market structure/definition (try actually reading about game theory, because you obviously don't know what zero sum means)

equities- not zero sum
futures, options - zero sum
 
Here is something very simple to honor the thread's topic while not keeping it "silent".

Price has a much easier time traveling through recent "known areas" than uncharted territory.

Meaning if the signals are right and the channel is broken a safe trade to the end of the next channel is highly probable.
 
Quote from NihabaAshi:

Thanks for providing further clarification because it seems a few in this thread thought you were implying that all successful traders don't share their methods.



I strongly disagree with this statement only because I've very familiar with both.

I've done the pre-med thing, medical research thing, medical school thing, drop out thing and still have close friends that work in different areas of the medical field.

My point, there are many areas in medicine that's full of secrecy and more than I've seen amongst successful traders for one main reason as explained below.



I think the root of any secrecy is mainly competition and it happens in many professions.

Thus, it has less to do with not wanting to share a simple approach to whatever someone is doing.

I can think of dozens of medical discoveries or techniques that were being performed in secrecy for many years before being revealed to their peers.

The secrecy deepens once they realize millions can be made and must remain a secret until its perfected and patented.

Also, don't overlook that some traders or others in a different profession that the reason they don't share is because they're too busy being successful.

For example, their are some sports stars that give summer camps, write technique books, write articles with step by step instructions mainly because they either have the time for such or are financially compensated very nicely for doing such or do it because they feel like giving back to the community.

However, there are other sports stars that absolutely refuse to do those things for whatever reasons especially if they are not under contract to do so.

There are some sports stars that are being trained/coached/advisor and they pay the trainer/coach/advisor a very nice sum of money to only work with them and not with anyone else and legal binding contracts are agreed upon for such.

Once again...its a competition thing and have very little to do with someone not wanting to share something that's simple.

Yet, I have met a few traders that don't share a simple profitable method at a public discussion forum but they do share with others in the profession that are close friends regardless if the close friend could be competition or not.

Yep, I have close friends that are institution traders et cetera and I'm the step-son of a successful ex-floor trader.

In addition, most of the successful stuff I've seen work in the markets are just common sense stuff that most ignore for whatever reasons or it seems like its boring.

I'm not saying there aren't any complex methods/tools that are successful because I've seen a few of such too or stuff that requires access to stuff not normally available to the retail trader.

Further, I've seen some very simple methods explained in very complex manner not because someone wants to be secretive but mainly because someone is either not good in explaining things or want to impress with fancy words or titanic phrases.

Just the same, I've seen some very complex methods explained in a very simple manner because someone is either intentionally being brief for whatever reasons or want to give a few clues to see what you can do with it prior to any further conversations.

Trading is just like anything else and many people have different motives or agendas for doing something.

However, I strongly feel that once it is broken down...

The submarine that surfaces is competition for most successful traders while the its something else for others.

Thus, there some truth is other things you've said in your opening statement.

Last of all, from my personal experience in trading, medicine and sports...

Even when you share something with someone...in most cases it will be applied differently for whatever reasons.

Mark
More...


Thanks for your post Mark... it is food for thought...

From your view, competition is the main reason behind the secrecy and this is the same for other disciplines...

From economic 101, we learn that competition comes from scarcity... so basically we're assuming the sharing of secrets would hurt us (due to scarcity) and thus we keep it to ourselves...

So it turns out it is the assumption that "if too many people know about it, it won't work anymore" that prevent traders from sharing...
 
Quote from whitster:

"This is simply not true, because trading is not a zero sum game... this is true even for derivatives such as futures and options... and successful traders all know about that..."


for derivatives it is, and cannot be other than a zero sum game. that's basic math

for equities, it is obviously not.

it's an issue of market structure/definition (try actually reading about game theory, because you obviously don't know what zero sum means)

equities- not zero sum
futures, options - zero sum
More...

When you're buying Euro dollar, you're buying (going long) Euro dollar no matter you're buying cash, futures, options, swaps, or whatever you can think of...

When you are buying 1 Euro FX contract from CME, you're buying 125000 Euro... Arbitragers make sure that after interest rate difference, expiration time and all that, it is equivalent to buying 125000 Euro at spot rate... or else you have a sure arbitrage profit on hand, which doesn't normally exist...

When you make $1 from going long Euro FX contract, you make it from the seller who sell the contract to you, which eventually is an arbitrager who transfers the losses to the spot FX market, and the losses reflect on the exchange rate, and everyone owning Euro dollar shares the losses of the $1 profit that you've just made...

So when you make $1 from Euro dollar speculation, no matter which instrument you use, you take that $1 profit from the pockets of ALL the people who own Euro dollars... This is the same for anything with real underlyings... equity futures included...

So zero sum game is just a concept... if you only count the players WITHIN the futures market, you think it is a ZSG... but when you look at some of the players (arbitragers) as bridges to the outside world... it is not so ZS... of course if you count EVERYONE holding Euro as players, then it becomes ZS again...

Of course you can count EVERYONE on the planet as players, then it is ALWAYS a zero sum game unless you're trading Galactic Credits with Aliens...
 
Quote from ion:

...So it turns out it is the assumption that "if too many people know about it, it won't work anymore" that prevent traders from sharing...
More...

Hi ion,

It's more like if too many people know about it, their improved performance will make my performance not seem so unique.

This applies to liquid markets only.

Therefore, if I had some edge in trading something illiquid...probably not a smart thing to share how your exploiting that illiquid market.

Regardless, it always comes down to what the actual edge is that's being shared.

Simply, there are some edges when shared...their performance level will not be affected no matter how many people are aware of its specific details.

Yet, there are other edges when shared...there will be a negative impact on their performance.

Also, not discussed a lot, although many threads at ET are proof that when a method is shared...

It's applied differently, parameters changed (altered), applied on different trading instruments by those with a strong interest in it after receiving the details of the method.

These threads displays the repetitive aspect of the human psychology in the markets where we need to change something to make it feel like our own.

Thus, when I meet someone that saids they have a profitable method but don't want to share it...

I believe this is a trader that knows his/her methodology well enough to know that sharing it will have a negative impact on his/her own performance level.

Just the same, when I meet someone that saids they have a profitable method and wants to share it...

I believe this is a trader that knows his/her methodology well enough to know that sharing it will not affect his/her performance level.

Some traders fear the competition while other traders do not fear the competition.

Last of all, I want to put a lot of emphasis on something I mention before by mentioning it again.

More often than not those that you see that are not sharing are actually sharing...

They just aren't sharing with you.

:cool:

Mark
 
I believe the major difference between success and failure of a trader is the ability to move from one strategy to the next without emotional attachment. Having a good strategy is like having the fastest sailboat in the fleet, you still need to read the water for wind shifts and still need to navigate around the marks.

Greg
 
Quote from William Rennick:

lol:D :D :D


ps. some great posts here. The truth I have found is that if it's widely taught , or makes it's way to a book, then it doesn't work well. That my friends is the way a market works. If everybody is doing the same thing the guy on the other side will be the winner. Another thing in trading, as in life., KEEP IT SIMPLE YOU DUMBASS. I call that the KISUD method:D

Rennick Livermore out
More...

heh heh KISUD. Good one. I am gonna write that one down and post it on my wall.
 
"Of course you can count EVERYONE on the planet as players, then it is ALWAYS a zero sum game unless you're trading Galactic Credits with Aliens..."

false.

you still don't understand market structure

you CANNOT by the nature of the market have more $ won in futures than lost (discounting commissions of course).

you CAN (and almost always do) have more or less $$ won than lost in stocks.

it is a structure of the market

it is semantical. game theory defines a zero sum game. futures ARE. stocks are not.

totally different systems

the fact that systems that ARE zero sum (futures) can be arb'd with systems that are not (ETF's for example like DIA that proxy the dow futes) is 100% irrelevant to the structure aspect. and the structure aspect determines that a market is or isn't zero sum

you do not understand basic math or game theory.

like most losing traders, i might add
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top